After a week off, the UFC returns for another Fight Night from the UFC Apex. It’s headlined by the rebooking of fan-favorite Derrick Lewis against rising heavyweight Sergei Spivak. This card was initially scheduled to take place in Korea, so it has a special start time of 10 p.m. Eastern Time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
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Main Event
Sergey Spivak ($8,800) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,400)
Were this fight placed anywhere else on the card, it would certainly be our “swing fight.” We have two powerful heavyweights who aren’t afraid to trade leather, with massive -750 odds to end inside the distance.
Former title challenger Lewis is coming off consecutive knockout losses. However, he looked good in the former against Tai Tuivasa, nearly knocking Tuivasa out before being finished himself. The second of those losses was a fairly quick stoppage from the referee.
Spivak is a considerable step down in competition for Lewis, as Lewis has almost exclusively fought top-five heavyweights in his recent fights. Spivak is a rising challenger, though, with consecutive finishes of his own. He will likely try to bring this fight to the ground, where he’s finished each of his last opponents with strikes.
The case for Spivak is that he’s fighting a 37-year-old Lewis, who’s coming off consecutive knockout losses. However, 37 isn’t all that old for heavyweights, and Spivak doesn’t have the one-punch power of Lewis’ past opponents. Lewis also has shown excellent takedown defense when fighting grapplers, with wins over Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Aleksei Oleinik, and others.
Lewis has gotten into trouble against fellow strikers, which Spivak is not. This fight is also in Las Vegas — where Lewis is undefeated in his career. While one could write that off as a mere coincidence, the smaller cage at the UFC Apex suits his brawling style well.
For GPPs, I’m all in on Lewis this week. At just $7,400, he opens up a lot of salary to fit some of the massive favorites, and his style leads to some big scores when he’s victorious. I’ll likely roster both heavyweights for cash games, though. The winner of this probably emerges with a finish, and it’s too volatile a fight to risk not getting the right one. With that said, if rostering one, I prefer the value on Lewis.
The Easy Chalk
Tatsuro Taira ($9,600)
Taira is an undefeated 23-year-old Japanese prospect who proclaimed a goal to be the first-ever Japanese UFC champion following his last fight. Based on his early performances, that goal appears to be within reach. He’s 2-0 in the Octagon, with a pair of dominant performances against lower-level competition.
He landed four takedowns and a knockdown between his two fights, averaging just over 100 points. The biggest knock against him from a DFS standpoint is that his grappling is too strong — by not allowing his opponents to get up, he is unable to continue to pick up takedowns.
With that said, he’s a massive -1100 favorite and an extremely safe option for all contest types. The UFC is giving him (at least) one more easier matchup before testing him, this time against newcomer Jesus Aguilar ($6,600). To be honest, I don’t know much about Aguilar besides that he’s an 8-1 pro with most of his wins by submission.
That’s not ideal against a world-class grappler like Taira, and the odds tell a compelling story. This one is also -200 to end inside the distance, so a solid score is very probable for Taira. The real question is whether he makes the optimal lineup or not. He likely needs an early stoppage to do so, and that’s not out of the question.
Price considered, I slightly prefer our other “easy chalk” fighter, but trying to fit both into lineups should be a slightly contrarian build. If we’re able to find some cheap fighters who pick up wins, they could both make the optimal lineup.
Rinya Nakamura ($9,300)
Nakamura is one of the finalists from the Road to UFC series, which I wrote about for the Action Network from a betting perspective. He’s easily the most credentialed competitor, winning a gold medal at the under-23 wrestling world championships before transitioning to MMA.
He’s a -450 or so favorite to Toshiomi Kazama ($6,900), a jiu-jitsu stylist from Japan. Kazama is a good matchup from a DFS standpoint for Nakamura, as he’s likely willing to accept takedowns but scrambles back to his feet when the ground fighting gets tough. That should lead to a lot of takedowns for Nakamura, barring an early stoppage.
Nakamura is also a solid striker and by far the superior athlete in this matchup. I prefer him over Taira when factoring in their salaries but will be looking for a way to fit both of them in as many lineups as possible.
The Value Play
Mandy Bohm ($7,200)
We have a perfect example of the “cheap female fighter likely to see the judges” in Bohm. She’s a considerable underdog to Ji Yeon Kim ($9,000), with odds in the +220 range. However, this fight is +250 to end inside the distance, the longest on the card.
That means we likely get 15 minutes of action even in a loss from Bohm. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a solid score, it’s a safer option than a fighter likely to get finished. I’d like to see Bohm pick up her work rate here, as she’s landed less than three significant strikes per minute in her two previous UFC bouts.
We’re more likely to get that against Kim, though, as Kim is a pure standup fighter. Kim has never landed a takedown in the UFC, so we should get some back-and-forth striking action. Additionally, there’s always the chance the judges gift us a decision in a close fight, which furthers the case for the underdog.
I’ve no interest in Bohm for GPPs, but she’s an excellent cash game salary saver.
The Upside Plays
Jeka Saragih ($8,000)
Very often, getting the $8,200/$8,000 salary fight correct is the key to a successful DFS lineup. Both fighters are priced at a point where the winner has an excellent chance of making the optimal lineup, and by definition, it’s hard to predict who will win.
That’s no different this week, with Saragih coming in as roughly a toss-up to Anshul Jubli ($8,200). They’re also RUFC finalists: Saragih scored two knockouts in the preliminary rounds of the tournament, with Jubli sneaking into the finals with a split-decision win in his last bout.
While Jubli is the better technical fighter overall, Saragih has the upside in takedowns and knockout power. Those traits lead to big DFS scores, so he’s the higher upside play.
Dooho Choi ($8,600)
This event was originally set to be in South Korea, so there are a ton of Korean fighters on the card. As is so often the case when the UFC travels overseas, the local fighters tend to be given winnable matchups to send the crowd home happy.
Of course, this fight is happening in Las Vegas, but the matchups remain. Choi is taking on Kyle Nelson ($7,600), a 1-4 UFC fighter with three losses by stoppage. While Choi is riding a three-fight UFC losing streak, those bouts came against considerably tougher competition than Nelson.
More importantly, at -250, this is one of the likelier fights to end inside the distance on the card. With Choi a solid favorite of -200 or so, he’s expected to be the one to secure the finish. That’s a lot of upside for an $8,600 fighter, making him a strong option this week.
The Contrarian Option
SeungGuk Choi ($7,800)
Choi is another fighter from the RUFC tournament, fighting in the flyweight finals. He’s an underdog to Hyun Sung Park ($8,400). Both fighters are representing Korea, with Park having a more well-rounded skill set and Choi being an aggressive — and at times flashy — striker.
While Choi is the deserving underdog, he has a potential ace in the hole. His cardio and ability to fight hard for 15 minutes were impressive in his tournament bouts, while Park’s record is primarily quick finishes. If Choi can survive the opening onslaught, he should be able to take over down the stretch.
While Choi doesn’t fit the profile of a massive upside fighter, possessing limited power and wrestling ability, his underdog salary means a mediocre win could still find him in the optimal lineup. This fight is also favored to go the distance, so there’s an element of safety if betting Choi.
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The Swing Fight
JeongYeong Lee ($8,900) vs. Yi Zha ($7,300)
While the main event fills the more traditional “swing fight” role — and the closest matchup already discussed — we’re left with Yi Zha vs. JeongYeong Lee. This fight is -300 to end inside the distance, second only to the heavyweight main event.
Lee is a deserving favorite here, with a ton of upside via both knockout power and grappling. Zha is a solid grappler in his own right but is a bit too comfortable fighting off his back for my liking. However, he could certainly catch a submission or reversal and turn the tides in his favor.
Given the stoppage odds, I’ll be trying to mix both of these fighters into my lineups, with a strong lean towards Lee. Zha is a reasonable option among the cheaper fighters, though, with far more upside than someone like Bohm at a similar price.
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