It’s back to Vegas for another fight night, with a fun main event between heavyweight knockout king Derrick “Black Beast” Lewis, and rising contender Sergey Spivak.
There’s an additional 11 fights on the card, kicking off at an early start of 1 p.m. Eastern time. As an additional note, DraftKings has introduced late swap for UFC contests — adding an interesting wrinkle to the strategy.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Sergey Spivak ($9,200) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,000)
One-time interim title challenger Derrick Lewis is on a bit of a downswing, with consecutive knockout losses to Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich. Both of those fighters — like Lewis — are stand-and-bang specialists who outdueled Lewis on the feet.
He gets a bit of a step down on paper for his matchup with Sergey Spivak. Spivak is primarily a grappler who’s coming off of stoppage wins over Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai. Spivak has held firm as a roughly -200 favorite throughout the week.
Which makes the pricing interesting here since those betting lines normally lead to the favored fighter coming in a bit cheaper. This one has -750 odds to end inside the distance, though, so it’s highly likely the winner puts up a big score. For Spivak, that would likely come with a takedown or two and some control time as well.
Still, that makes Lewis the far better value on paper here. If he picks up a win, it’s very likely to be a knockout, meaning he’ll get bonus points for the stoppage and a knockdown. For that reason, I’ll be overweight on him for tournaments.
For cash games, this is an obvious situation where we want both fighters. This one’s too close to comfortably call, and there are not really any viable alternatives in Lewis’ salary range. With that said, this is a perfect time to take advantage of the new late swap feature.
If you find yourself out of the money heading into the co-main, pivoting from Spivak to Kennedy Nzechukwu would give you a chance to catch up with a Lewis win. If you’re already rostering the co-main event favorite, Waldo Cortes Acosta in the third fight from the end is an option as well.
The Easy Chalk
Jack Della Maddalena ($9,600)
The pricing on Della Maddalena is a perfect example of why Spivak stands out. Maddalena is at least a -600 favorite everywhere, but only a few hundred more that the heavyweight. Using the Action Network Odds Calculator, we can see he’s about 28% more likely to win than Spivak while costing just 4% more.
That’s a long-winded way of saying Della Maddalena is a great value this week. He’s started his UFC career with consecutive first-round knockouts and has a 12-fight win streak overall after losing his first two professional bouts at just 19 years old.
He’s in line to be the next big star from Australia, with one more “easy” fight against Danny Roberts ($6,600) before he gets pushed into tougher competition. Roberts is a UFC journeyman with a 7-5 record in 12 UFC fights.
From a DFS standpoint, Della Maddalena’s uncanny ability to quickly separate his opponents from consciousness leads to some big scores. He’ll be massively owned, but worth it if you can find the salary to do so.
Kennedy Nzechukwu ($8,800)
Nzechukwu is less of a sure thing than Della Maddalena, with a relatively tough test in Ion Cutelaba ($7,400) in front of him. However, the upside is enormous, with three of Nzechukwu’s four UFC wins coming via knockout.
Nzechukwu is a massive light heavyweight, standing 6’5″ with an 83-inch reach. That gives him an eight-inch reach edge over Cutelaba, which is important in keeping the grappler Cutelaba at Bay. Nzechukwu also has a very strong 81% takedown defense in his UFC career, though he’s mostly fought strikers.
Nzechukwu is an awesome tournament play, but one that probably won’t make my cash lineups. That is, unless we need to late swap to him. Thanks to his pricing, he’s a strong choice for a pivot from Spivak if you find yourself an underdog heading into the last few fights.
The Value Plays
There are only two underdogs (by salary) who have seen the line move in their favor since salaries were released. Both are women fighting on the early prelims in fights that are somewhat unlikely to end in a stoppage. They’re both better cash game plays, though you’ll probably only need the savings from one of them.
With that said, we’ll be lumping both of them together with a quick blurb on each.
Vanessa Demopolous ($8,000) and Tereza Bleda ($7,300)
The usual strategy for cash games is to target underdogs whose fights are unlikely to end inside the distance. Both women have +140 stoppage odds on Saturday, among the longest on the card. The logic is that they’ll have a higher floor in a loss if they go the full 15 minutes.
With that said, Demopolous certainly has the higher median and ceiling here — at least based on betting lines. She has a reasonable path to a stoppage with her solid submission skills, and she’s now a slight betting favorite after opening as an underdog. I expect her to be somewhat popular as a result.
Of course, at $700 cheaper, Bleda may be the better value. She’s a 6-0 prospect making her UFC debut against Natalia Silva ($8,900). Silva is 1-0 in the UFC but 13-5 overall. Bleda, whose nickname “Ronda” should tell you something, has fought fairly tough pre-UFC competition.
All things considered, it’s not crazy to roster both women in cash games if it helps your overall build. It’s hard to pass up on an $8,000 favorite in Demopolous, and Bleda looks to be a fairly high-level prospect. If only using one, I’m fine with letting whatever fits my build dictate who I take. I slightly prefer Demopolous, but not enough to spend an extra $700 that could be used elsewhere.
The Contrarian Approach
Chase Sherman ($7,100)
To be fully honest — this doesn’t make me happy. Sherman is lucky to still be on the UFC roster, saving his job with a third-round knockout of Jared Vanderaa in a fight he was probably losing on the scorecards. Prior to that, he was riding a four-fight losing streak.
His opponent, Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($9,100), is also coming off a bout against Vanderaa. Except in Cortes-Acosta’s case, it was a decision win that probably should’ve — and certainly could’ve gone the other way. While Cortes-Acosta got the win, it was certainly not a confidence-inspiring performance.
This one should be a stand-up fight, with neither man having so much as attempted a takedown in their UFC careers. That’s a good thing for Sherman, who’s been extremely durable on the feet but frequently finished when on his back. While Cortes-Acosta has some power, it’s nothing Sherman hasn’t faced before.
Thanks to his low salary, almost any win would get Sherman into the optimal lineup for GPPs. His high-volume striking gives him a bit of upside — and a solid floor for cash games. He’s also a reasonable pivot from Derrick Lewis (assuming you leave an extra $100 in salary) if you find yourself trailing in cash games.
The Upside Plays
Brady Hiestand ($8,500)
Both Hiestand and his opponent, Fernie Garcia ($7,700), are looking to record their first UFC win after starting their Octagon careers with a loss. Hiestand showed a ton of promise, though, picking up six takedowns in a split-decision loss to fellow UFC Vegas competitor Ricky Turcios ($8,600).
That level of relentless wrestling is ideal for DFS, as it allowed Hiestand to put up 78 points despite losing the fight. It should also help him in this fight against Garcia, who was taken down twice on three attempts by Journey Newsome in his debut.
Hiestand checks all the boxes as a solid DFS play here. He looked better against tougher competition than his opponent in their last fights, he’s reasonably priced, and the line has drifted his way throughout the week. In terms of upside, we’re hunting for takedowns and finishes, with Hiestand likely to provide at least the former.
A finish wouldn’t be shocking either, with Hiestand finishing five of his six official bouts prior to the UFC and one of his two on The Ultimate Fighter. He’s an excellent play for both tournaments and cash games.
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The Swing Fight
Muslim Salikhov ($8,300) vs. Andre Fialho ($7,900)
Andre Fialho is the human swing fight, with a wild, defense-optional approach that tends to lead to exciting brawls. His last three fights have ended in knockouts, with two of them going his way. Fialho is a classic “take two to give one” fighter, averaging nearly seven significant strikes absorbed per minute while landing a bit under four of his own.
Salikhov is a bit more cautious, with “the king of kung fu” seeing the judges on three of his last four fights. However, he still has a knockdown rate roughly double the UFC average, so he can test Filaho’s chin at any time. Salkihov also mixes in the occasional takedown, landing just over one per 15 minutes in his UFC career.
With Fialho’s knockout-or-bust attitude and Salikhov’s takedown upside, it’s likely the winner of this one ends up in the optimal lineup. Given Salikhov’s age (38) and recent knockout loss, I’m leaning toward Fialho, but both are solid plays for GPPs.
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