UFC Vegas 37 features a massive 14 fight card, headlined by former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith.The DraftKings slate locks at 4 pm ET on Saturday, so make sure to get your lineups in early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
With seven fighters priced at or over $9000 on DraftKings, we’re going to approach this breakdown differently than usual. While you could theoretically fit four of them in your lineups, most builds this weekend will feature two or three, paired with an underdog or two and perhaps one mid-range fighter.
I hesitate to call any of them “chalk” (except perhaps Smith) since the field will likely mix in all of them somewhat evenly. We’ll do a brief rundown of all the expensive fighters, followed by a couple value plays that I like, and end with some mid priced fighters that will likely see reduced ownership this week.
The Heavy Favorites
Arman Tsarukyan ($9600)
Tsarukyan is the heaviest favorite (-800) on the slate and, appropriately, the highest priced. He’s 3-1 so far in his UFC career, with his only loss coming to sixth ranked Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan gets there with his grappling, averaging over a takedown per round in the UFC (1.4 not counting the Makhachev fight.)
I don’t expect his opponent, Christos Giagos ($6600) to have an answer for him here. The concern is whether he can put up enough points to pay off his salary. Tsarukyan has never finished a UFC fight, and is a +160 underdog to do so here. Our projections give him only the fourth highest ceiling on the slate. He’s fine for cash games, but I’d look to spend my salary elsewhere for tournaments.
Montel Jackson ($9500)
Jackson on the other hand, has our highest ceiling projection. He has almost as good overall odds (-650) as Tsarukyan, but is far more likely to finish the fight (-145.) He averages an absurd .28 knockdowns per round, almost triple the UFC average (.09).
Even more impressively, he combines that power with solid grappling, averaging 1.3 takedowns per round. Jackson has never won and scored under 96 DraftKings points. We have him as our highest projected fighter across the board, and he’s a borderline must-play in all contest types.
Erin Blanchfield ($9400)
Blanchfield is “only” a -375 favorite here, making her an outlier (in a bad way) relative to her price. She’s making her UFC debut, so the data on her is fairly thin, but she has finished half of her professional wins to this point in her career. Sarah Alpar ($6800) is 0-1 in the UFC, and it came by knockout, so there’s probably better odds of a Blanchfield victory inside the distance than the odds would imply. I’m staying far away from her in cash games, but a female UFC debut fighter is likely to be very low owned relative to her odds, so I see the appeal for tournaments.
Joaquin Buckley ($9300)
“New Mansa’s” fights tend to lead to somebody putting up a big fantasy score, with all of his UFC bouts being decided by knockout. His scoring distribution is essentially a u instead of a bell-curve. Still, he should fare fine in this one.
Antonio Arroyo ($6900), his opponent, is 0-2 in the UFC and likely being offered up to Buckley in hopes of another highlight reel knockout. Buckley is a bit of a scary play for cash games (although not totally out of the question) but a great tournament option. He’s fourth in our median projection at 78.9, but likely finishes either well above or well below that mark.
Tony Gravely ($9200)
Gravely is a relentless wrestler, he leads the slate in both takedowns attempted (3.8) and landed (2) per round. He had our 4th highest floor projection here, and for good reason. In his lone UFC loss, he was still able to pick up five takedowns en route to a 46 point performance.
(While I don’t remember the fight, the stats would suggest he was winning before being caught in a 3rd round submission.) He’s a -225 favorite who’s scored over 110 points in both of his UFC wins. Gravely is my favorite high-priced fighter for all contest types.
Anthony Smith ($9100)
Smith is a moderate (-165) favorite in a light heavyweight main event, leading to his high salary. Among the $9000+ fighters, we have him projected the worst in all categories. I think the field will be on to this, as Smith is priced as if he were a much heavier favorite. so there could be a contrarian angle here for tournaments.
He looked as if he wouldn’t be the same fighter after a brutal loss to Glover Texeira, but has since rebounded with consecutive first round victories. I won’t have a lot of Smith, but one could make a case for him at low projected ownership.
Ion Cutelaba ($9000)
The last of our (arbitrarily designated by me) high priced fighters is Ion Cutelaba.Cutelaba is a -150 favorite facing Devin Clark ($7200) in the co-main event. Cutelaba has our second-highest ceiling, and third-highest PTS/SAL projection of the night.
Even so, Clarks wall-and-stall style doesn’t usually lead to high scores for Clark or his opponents. Saturday’s main event fighters were the last two men to defeat Clark, and they averaged 88.5 points in those fights. That’s a solid score, but probably not enough at $9000 in salary. Of course, Cutelaba could beat that number, but I don’t think his odds are high enough to justify his price.
The Underdogs
Devin Clark ($7200)
I mentioned above that neither Clark nor his opponent tend to put up high scores. While that’s a problem at a $9000 price tag, at $7200, it’s less of one. Clark has averaged 90 points in his recent wins, which is more than enough to pay off at his salary.
At only +125, he offers as much win equity per dollar as almost anyone on the slate. I like Clark for all formats. If he’s in your cash lineup and loses, it’s no big deal, he still allows you to get up to more of the heavy favorites. If he wins, he’s a huge boost to cash lineups and potentially a GPP winner.
Ryan Spann ($7100)
At +135, Spann presents a similar situation as Clark. He’s far too cheap for his odds, and he gets the benefit of two (potential) extra rounds in which to score points. I actually like Spann outright to win this one, the Fortis MMA fighter is 6-1 in his UFC career, and while not much younger than Smith, their careers appear to be trending in opposite directions. Even if you disagree with me, Spann still provides a tremendous value that opens up your lineup options significantly.
The Short-notice Special
Zhu Rong ($7700)
I’ve been “rong” (see what I did there?) in both of the last two situations like this:
JARED GOODEN (+151) SAID NIGHT 😴
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 1, 2021
(hint, the guy I wrote up is the less conscious of the two.)
Zhu Rong is popping in our models though so here we are. Rong was scheduled to take on Dakota Bush (withdrew due to Covid) until the middle of this week. Rong was a slight underdog (+110) against Bush, leading to his cheap salary. Now, Rong is a -300 favorite against late replacement Brandon Jenkins ($6700), who’s making his UFC debut.
Rong is 0-1 in the UFC and fought questionable competition before making his debut, so he’s not exactly a world beater. Still, a -300 favorite at $7700 is hard to pass up, particularly in cash games. His 9.3 PTS/SAL trails only Jackson on the slate.
Jenkins makes more sense in tournaments, since his long odds could lead to him being overlooked.
Pictured above: Anthony Smith
Photo credit: Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images
