After a few weeks on the road, the UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 105. The 12-fight card is headlined by featherweights Lerone Murphy and Josh Emmett, with DFS contests locking at 6:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Lerone Murphy ($9,300) vs. Josh Emmett ($6,900)
This is an extremely interesting fight for DFS. We have a heavy favorite in Lerone Murphy, who has five decision wins in seven UFC victories, including his last four wins as he continues to climb the featherweight rankings.
On the flip side, the underdog Josh Emmett has massive power but isn’t a great per-minute scorer. That gives him the higher ceiling in this matchup, but very little in terms of bankable floor outside the fact that he’s likely to go all 25 minutes in a loss.
Due to that dynamic, it’s very easy to see Murphy getting the win but not making the optimal lineup, which makes Emmett the better GPP play. On the flip side, Emmett’s lack of a floor makes him a hard cash play.
Considering we have another fight where the combined salaries are $1,300 less than this one, I’ll likely be going with just Murphy in cash games, but a heavier dose of Emmett in GPPs.
The Easy Chalk
Dione Barbosa ($9,400)
Just two of the fighters in the $9,000 range are in fights favored to end inside the distance, with one of those being Barbosa. Her fight against Diana Belbita ($6,800) was a late addition to the card after Barbosa was originally slated to fight last week in Mexico.
Barbosa’s moneyline has since ballooned as high as -1000 at some sportsbooks, making her $9,400 salary a bit low despite being the second most expensive fighter on the slate. That gives her a rare combination of safety and upside, as she has the best odds to pick up a stoppage on the card.
We don’t need to dig too deeply into the stylistic matchup when the market is sending us such strong signals, but it’s worth noting that Belbita was submitted by Molly McCann in her last fight, and Barbosa is a high-level grappler.
The Upside Play
Torrez Finney ($9,000)
Finney and Barbosa are relatively interchangeable at the top, with Finney’s lesser market data counteracted by the $400 in savings.
Finney also has a near-ideal matchup for his debut in the UFC proper. He’s taking on Robert Valentin ($7,200), a tall, skinny middleweight who was finished on the ground in his only UFC fight to date. Finney picked up 18 takedowns across three fights on the Contender Series, finishing two of those in the process.
That gives him the ideal upside combination of either plenty of takedowns or a likely stoppage. At worst, he should land a takedown in each round and rack up some control time. I have doubts about Finney’s overall ceiling in the division as a 5’8” middleweight, but his debut matchup is about as perfect as it could get.
The Value Plays
Cortavious Romious ($7,800)
Romious’ fight may be in jeopardy after he missed weight by 3.5 pounds, but assuming the fight still goes on as planned, he’s a strong value.
Romious is taking on ChangHo Lee ($8,400), a winner of the latest “Road to the UFC” tournament that concluded last June. That makes Lee technically 1-0 in the UFC, but this is his first fight outside of the tournament. Lee also needed a split decision to win that fight and was taken down twice. He was taken down six times in the prior fight before picking up a third-round knockout.
This plays very well to Romious’ strengths. Like Finney, he’s extremely athletic but drastically undersized for the division, standing just 5’4” as a bantamweight. He picked up four takedowns in his debut en route to a decision loss, which was good enough for a reasonable 40-point floor.
His athleticism edge makes him very live to win this fight outright, but at worst, he should pile up takedowns in the early portion of the fight. That gives him a great floor for cash games, with some sneaky GPP upside.
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Martin Buday ($7,000)
We haven’t had one of these in a while, but Buday is suddenly a massive value thanks to a last-minute opponent switch. He was originally booked against Kennedy Nzechukwu ($9,200) and was a substantial +260 underdog.
Now, he’s taking on UFC newcomer Uran Satybaldiev ($7,900), who accepted the fight on just two days’ notice. Satybaldiev fought less than a month ago in his natural light heavyweight division, took a ton of damage before getting the win, and is giving up about 40 pounds to Buday.
Buday is now approximately a -154 favorite despite his near-minimum price tag, making him an obvious value option. I’d also consider stacking this fight for cash games since the combined salary between Buday and his opponent is $1,300 less than the typical $16,200, and the fight is fairly likely to go long based on the early betting numbers.
The knock against Buday for GPPs is probably his likely ownership, but he’s still a strong play on paper.
The Contrarian Choice
Talita Alencar ($8,200)
Not a lot of people seem to be interested in the first fight of the night on Saturday, with Alencar taking on Vanessa Demopoulos ($8,000) in a bout that’s -400 to go the distance.
That makes sense, but I’d argue that Alencar’s upside is much greater than the betting market would indicate. She’s a world-class grappler with three black belt world titles to her name, taking on a fighter more than willing to engage on the ground.
Alencar is also a reasonably competent wrestler, which should be all it takes against the miserable 27% takedown defense of Demopoulos. Alencar is live for a submission finish and/or a bunch of takedowns, both of which would be enough at her moderate salary.
Sean Zerillo and I discussed Alencar as our best bet on our latest UFC Betting Preview:
The Swing Fight
Joanderson Brito ($8,700) vs. Pat Sabatini ($7,500)
I did the full betting preview for this fight and came away with the under 1.5 rounds as the best bet. That clearly translates well to DFS, since I’m expecting a finish one way or the other in this fight.
It’s an extremely binary matchup, where Brito has a huge edge in the striking department, and Sabatini is a much stronger grappler. Sabatini’s two UFC losses have been via quick knockouts, while Brito has dropped two fights in which he initiated the grappling but was subsequently reversed.
That gives both fighters a fairly clear path to a big score, especially relative to their salaries. A first-round knockout for Brito would be more than enough at $8,700, and any win for Sabatini is sufficient. Even so, a Sabatini win likely comes with plenty of takedowns.
I’ll be overweight on the underdog here, as the field is piling onto the Brito side. Still, I’ll have plenty of exposure to both pieces of this matchup.
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