The UFC is back home at the Apex this week, with a 12 10-fight card headlined by flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. The card starts at 4:00 P.M. ET, so have your lineups ready.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Manel Kape ($9,000) vs. Asu Almabayev ($7,200)
In terms of star power, this isn’t the best main event, but the flyweight fight between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev should be a fun one, both from an entertainment perspective and, more importantly, for DFS.
Kape has been a fight away from a title shot on multiple occasions in his UFC career and could be back there again. The former RIZIN champ has never been quite consistent enough to earn a crack at the belt, but at his best, he is one of the most exciting fighters in the sport.
He’s landed at least one knockdown in all five of his UFC wins, with three of those victories coming via finish. He offers finishing upside and a high striking volume, as well as the occasional takedown.
Almabayev’s game is more based on his grappling, averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. This is his first five-round fight, giving him huge potential to pick up points with his wrestling. Of course, that style could cause him to fade over 25 minutes.
Almabayev’s wrestling-heavy style has historically been an issue for Kape, who suffered losses to stylistically similar fighters Mohamed Mokaev and Matheus Nicolau. For that reason, I’ll be overweight on the underdog in GPPs, but certainly stacking this fight in cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Chepe Mariscal ($9,400)
Both options at the very top of the salary range are projecting similarly, but for my money, Chepe Mariscal is the safer of the two options.
While he’s not as heavy a favorite as Mario Pinto, Mariscal’s -410 moneyline odds are more than enough to feel good about against Ricardo Ramos ($6,800). Crucially, he has a wider path to upside than Pinto.
Mariscal has a background in judo, which he relies on in certain matchups to pile up takedowns. Two of his four UFC fights have seen him land at least four takedowns, while he finished a third with a throw that broke the arm of his opponent.
That gives him upside both via finishing Ramos and piling up takedowns in a longer fight. He’s an easy click in cash games, and I’ll have plenty of him in GPPs as well.
The Upside Plays
Mario Pinto ($9,300)
Pinto brings a few more question marks to the table this week, given that he’s making his UFC debut. However, betting action has made him the heaviest favorite on the slate against Austen Lane ($6,900), with the best odds to pick up a first-round finish at a solid +150.
The heavyweight prospect needed just two minutes to find a knockout on last year’s Contender Series, his sixth finish in nine professional wins. Lane has been knocked out in all three of his UFC/Contender Series losses, twice in the first round.
The downside is that Pinto’s massive athletic edge over most heavyweights might not exist against the former NFL player Lane, who may try to control Pinto on the ground. Odds are that strategy won’t work, but it gives Pinto just enough downside that I rank him slightly below Mariscal—though playing both are great options.
Danny Barlow ($9,200) is another strong option at the top, who, like Pinto, probably needs an early finish to pay off his salary due to a lack of grappling upside. I prefer Pinto all things considered, but Barlow makes sense as a contrarian pivot.
The Value Play
Charles Johnson ($7,800)
“InnerG” is a pretty obvious value play based on betting markets. Not only is his fight against Ramazan Temirov ($8,400) fairly likely to go to a decision at -175 odds, but Johnson is now a favorite despite being the cheaper fighter.
Johnson has been an elite DFS asset in recent fights, thanks to his newfound punching power. Johnson always pushed a fast pace but has knocked down his last three opponents at some point in each fight. Johnson might also rely on some grappling against Temirov, who comes into the fight with five straight first-round knockouts, including in his UFC debut.
Temirov’s power and aggression might make Johnson a bit too thin for cash games, as there’s a reasonable chance he gets caught early. However, if he survives the storm, he should take over down the stretch with his elite cardio. That makes him a better GPP play this week.
For cash games, Hyder Amil ($7,400) and Andrea Lee ($7,500) are both underdogs in fights likely to see the judges. Both have solid floors and are my preferred cash game budget options.
The Contrarian Choice
Nasrat Haqparast ($7,100)
I was surprised to see the market turn its back on Haqparast heading into this fight. He’s around a two-to-one underdog against Esteban Ribovics ($9,100), despite closing as a solid favorite in his last four fights—and winning them all.
Haqparast has been in the UFC since 2017 and is still just 29 years old. Training out of Tristar in Montreal, he’s been on a roll since dropping back-to-back fights to Dan Hooker and King Green in 2021/2022.
Ribovics is a tough opponent as well, but less experienced at 3-1 in the UFC. Both fighters are high-volume strikers with solid power and durability, but this fight is favored to see the judges.
Given Haqparast’s output per minute, that makes him a solid floor play at worst. At best, the judges see this one in his favor, as any win at his price point should see him land in the optimal lineup.
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The Swing Fights
Julian Marquez ($8,500) vs. Cody Brundage ($7,700)
The middleweights in the co-main event this week have a combined 16 fights in the UFC. Just three of those have gone to the judges, and neither man has ever won a decision.
That makes this a pretty obvious swing fight, with the winner likely to emerge with a big score. Both men throw heavy shots on the feet and are capable of putting up points via grappling. For Brundage, that comes via his takedowns. Marquez, on the other hand, has submissions in all three of his UFC wins.
Both have fairly questionable chins as well. Marquez has been knocked out in three straight fights, while Brundage has two official knockout losses in the UFC. On top of that, twice in his past four fights, he was hurt with legal shots but let off the hook due to follow-up strikes landing on the back of his head (one no contest and one DQ).
Wherever this fight takes place, somebody is likely to score well. Who will it be? I’m not sure. Either way, I want exposure to the winner.
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