UFC

UFC Vegas 102 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Rodrigues vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads back to the Apex this weekend, with a 13-fight card headlined by ranked middleweights Jared Cannonier and Gregory Rodrigues.

The card starts at 4 p.m. ET, so get your lineups ready for the early afternoon start.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Gregory Rodrigues ($8,600) vs. Jared Cannonier ($7,600)

The main event this weekend is a classic “passing of the torch” fight. Jared Cannonier is a former title challenger, but he’s also 40 years old and coming off back-to-back losses against probable future title challengers Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov.

The UFC is looking to build one more contender off of his name, in this case Gregory Rodrigues. “Robocop” isn’t quite the prospect as the last two men to defeat Cannonier. He is a borderline world-class grappler, though, who also has plenty of power.

Given Cannonier’s mediocre takedown defense (62%) and age, Rodrigues has a clear path to both victory and DFS upside. There’s always a risk he gets too aggressive on the feet and gets caught, but assuming he follows a smart game plan, he should win this one and score well.

Cannonier’s lack of grappling upside in this matchup means he’s not an especially high-floor play, and the fight is about even money to even see the championship rounds. For that reason, this isn’t a priority stack for me in cash games. I don’t hate it if it helps make the salary work, but there are other cheap options I’d rather go with.

For GPPs, I’ll have some slight exposure to Cannonier, but for the most part, I will be riding with the favorite since he’s not prohibitively expensive.

The Easy Chalk

Jose Delgado ($9,000)

The two heaviest favorites on this card—Jacqueline Cavalcanti ($9,500) and Youssef Zalal ($9,400)—are both in fights favored to go the distance. That makes them unlikely to pay off their salaries and leaves us looking to slightly less comfortable options near the top of the pay scale.

One of those is Delgado, who opens the main card against Connor Matthews ($7,200). Matthews went 1-1 in two trips to the Contender Series, then was knocked out by Dennis Buzukja in his UFC debut proper.

Delgado is 8-1 as a pro, with five straight finishes, including one on the Contender Series. He’s also seen significant line movement, starting the week at around -240 odds before getting steamed all the way past -400.

That’s enough for me, especially in a fight that’s -175 to end inside the distance. Given that he also picked up three takedowns in just over six minutes on the Contender Series, he’s got some upside even without a finish, making him a relatively safe bet to cover his salary.

The Upside Plays

Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,200)

The UFC career of Edmen Shahbazyan has been frustrating. Once viewed as the future of the division, “The Golden Boy” debuted a week after his 21st birthday, going 4-0 in his first four Octagon appearances with three first-round finishes.

Then the wheels fell off, and Shahbazyan has gone 2-5 since, only defeating opponents with losing UFC records. Fortunately for him, he draws another one of those on Saturday, taking on Dylan Budka ($7,000) and his 0-2 promotional record.

Budka had a lackluster decision win on the 2023 season of the Contender Series, then was knocked out in his UFC debut while landing just one significant strike over seven minutes. He followed that up by missing weight, then clinging to Andre Petroski for dear life from bottom position in September.

Shahbazyan is the better fighter in all aspects here, and the UFC is looking to use Budka to build some momentum for Shahbazyan before sending him back to the regional circuit. Let’s use him for some fantasy production too, while we still can.

The Value Play

Calvin Kattar ($6,800)

I did an in-depth breakdown of the co-main event between Kattar and Youssef Zalal ($9,400) this week from a betting standpoint.

While I’m betting Kattar as a big underdog here, he’s even more valuable as a fantasy asset. That’s because Kattar is a huge-volume striker with excellent takedown defense in a fight favored to go the distance.

While I expect Zalal to have the bigger moments, if Kattar keeps this one standing, he should score fairly well on a per-minute basis, giving him an excellent floor. While that sounds like a big “if,” Kattar is a former state qualifier in wrestling, while Zalal comes from a kickboxing background.

An upset would almost guarantee Kattar finds the optimal lineup, while most losing scenarios still see him score fairly well relative to his price tag. That makes him an excellent cash game option with some GPP upside.

Julia Avila ($6,700) fits a similar cash game profile, and Vince Morales ($7,100) has moved from +190 to +120 betting odds, making them also strong cash game budget options.

The Contrarian Choice

Andre Petroski ($7,400)

Petroski has an unfair reputation as a boring “lay and pray” fighter based on his last two fights. In each of those matches, Petroski was able to get early takedowns in every round, but his opponents hung on for dear life, which didn’t give Petroski any opportunities to hunt strikes or finishes.

That won’t be the case against Rodolfo Viera ($8,800), a fellow elite grappler. That’s understating it a bit for Viera, a former ADCC winner and multiple-time black belt world champion.

However, this is MMA and not pure grappling. Both men are extremely dangerous from the top position and could be vulnerable if forced to fight off their backs. Petroski is a former D1 wrestler and will likely have the better offensive wrestling of the two.

There’s a chance this turns into a low-skill kickboxing match, but my guess is we’ll see one or both men force the grappling at some point. That gives Petroski a shot to pull off the upset, which would be more than enough to send him to the optimal lineup.

The risk of a bad striking bout is high enough that I’m avoiding Petroski for cash, but he’s an excellent GPP option.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fights

Gabriel Bonfim ($8,900) vs. Khaos Williams ($7,300)

There aren’t really any obvious “Swing Fights” this week, as there are only a couple of closely lined fights, both of which are highly likely to hit the judges.

The closest we’ve got is one of the two Bonfim brother fights on the card, with younger Bonfim Gabriel taking on Michigan’s Khaos Williams.

It’s something of a striker-vs-grappler matchup, as the Brazilian Bonfim has 12 submissions in 16 career wins, while Williams has won the majority of his bouts by knockout. Bonfim’s technical striking isn’t too far behind Williams’, but he has a massive power and durability disadvantage.

Thus, Bonfim is likely to finish the fight on the ground if he gets it there, while Williams should be able to find the button if it stays on the feet. That gives both men solid upside, though when considering price and ownership, I prefer Williams.

Sean Zerillo and I both gave our reasons for being optimistic about Williams in this week’s UFC Betting Preview:

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 71 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blaydes vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights UFC 289 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nunes vs. Aldana, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 75 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Vettori vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights UFC 303 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prochazka, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads back to the Apex this weekend, with a 13-fight card headlined by ranked middleweights Jared Cannonier and Gregory Rodrigues.

The card starts at 4 p.m. ET, so get your lineups ready for the early afternoon start.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Gregory Rodrigues ($8,600) vs. Jared Cannonier ($7,600)

The main event this weekend is a classic “passing of the torch” fight. Jared Cannonier is a former title challenger, but he’s also 40 years old and coming off back-to-back losses against probable future title challengers Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov.

The UFC is looking to build one more contender off of his name, in this case Gregory Rodrigues. “Robocop” isn’t quite the prospect as the last two men to defeat Cannonier. He is a borderline world-class grappler, though, who also has plenty of power.

Given Cannonier’s mediocre takedown defense (62%) and age, Rodrigues has a clear path to both victory and DFS upside. There’s always a risk he gets too aggressive on the feet and gets caught, but assuming he follows a smart game plan, he should win this one and score well.

Cannonier’s lack of grappling upside in this matchup means he’s not an especially high-floor play, and the fight is about even money to even see the championship rounds. For that reason, this isn’t a priority stack for me in cash games. I don’t hate it if it helps make the salary work, but there are other cheap options I’d rather go with.

For GPPs, I’ll have some slight exposure to Cannonier, but for the most part, I will be riding with the favorite since he’s not prohibitively expensive.

The Easy Chalk

Jose Delgado ($9,000)

The two heaviest favorites on this card—Jacqueline Cavalcanti ($9,500) and Youssef Zalal ($9,400)—are both in fights favored to go the distance. That makes them unlikely to pay off their salaries and leaves us looking to slightly less comfortable options near the top of the pay scale.

One of those is Delgado, who opens the main card against Connor Matthews ($7,200). Matthews went 1-1 in two trips to the Contender Series, then was knocked out by Dennis Buzukja in his UFC debut proper.

Delgado is 8-1 as a pro, with five straight finishes, including one on the Contender Series. He’s also seen significant line movement, starting the week at around -240 odds before getting steamed all the way past -400.

That’s enough for me, especially in a fight that’s -175 to end inside the distance. Given that he also picked up three takedowns in just over six minutes on the Contender Series, he’s got some upside even without a finish, making him a relatively safe bet to cover his salary.

The Upside Plays

Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,200)

The UFC career of Edmen Shahbazyan has been frustrating. Once viewed as the future of the division, “The Golden Boy” debuted a week after his 21st birthday, going 4-0 in his first four Octagon appearances with three first-round finishes.

Then the wheels fell off, and Shahbazyan has gone 2-5 since, only defeating opponents with losing UFC records. Fortunately for him, he draws another one of those on Saturday, taking on Dylan Budka ($7,000) and his 0-2 promotional record.

Budka had a lackluster decision win on the 2023 season of the Contender Series, then was knocked out in his UFC debut while landing just one significant strike over seven minutes. He followed that up by missing weight, then clinging to Andre Petroski for dear life from bottom position in September.

Shahbazyan is the better fighter in all aspects here, and the UFC is looking to use Budka to build some momentum for Shahbazyan before sending him back to the regional circuit. Let’s use him for some fantasy production too, while we still can.

The Value Play

Calvin Kattar ($6,800)

I did an in-depth breakdown of the co-main event between Kattar and Youssef Zalal ($9,400) this week from a betting standpoint.

While I’m betting Kattar as a big underdog here, he’s even more valuable as a fantasy asset. That’s because Kattar is a huge-volume striker with excellent takedown defense in a fight favored to go the distance.

While I expect Zalal to have the bigger moments, if Kattar keeps this one standing, he should score fairly well on a per-minute basis, giving him an excellent floor. While that sounds like a big “if,” Kattar is a former state qualifier in wrestling, while Zalal comes from a kickboxing background.

An upset would almost guarantee Kattar finds the optimal lineup, while most losing scenarios still see him score fairly well relative to his price tag. That makes him an excellent cash game option with some GPP upside.

Julia Avila ($6,700) fits a similar cash game profile, and Vince Morales ($7,100) has moved from +190 to +120 betting odds, making them also strong cash game budget options.

The Contrarian Choice

Andre Petroski ($7,400)

Petroski has an unfair reputation as a boring “lay and pray” fighter based on his last two fights. In each of those matches, Petroski was able to get early takedowns in every round, but his opponents hung on for dear life, which didn’t give Petroski any opportunities to hunt strikes or finishes.

That won’t be the case against Rodolfo Viera ($8,800), a fellow elite grappler. That’s understating it a bit for Viera, a former ADCC winner and multiple-time black belt world champion.

However, this is MMA and not pure grappling. Both men are extremely dangerous from the top position and could be vulnerable if forced to fight off their backs. Petroski is a former D1 wrestler and will likely have the better offensive wrestling of the two.

There’s a chance this turns into a low-skill kickboxing match, but my guess is we’ll see one or both men force the grappling at some point. That gives Petroski a shot to pull off the upset, which would be more than enough to send him to the optimal lineup.

The risk of a bad striking bout is high enough that I’m avoiding Petroski for cash, but he’s an excellent GPP option.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fights

Gabriel Bonfim ($8,900) vs. Khaos Williams ($7,300)

There aren’t really any obvious “Swing Fights” this week, as there are only a couple of closely lined fights, both of which are highly likely to hit the judges.

The closest we’ve got is one of the two Bonfim brother fights on the card, with younger Bonfim Gabriel taking on Michigan’s Khaos Williams.

It’s something of a striker-vs-grappler matchup, as the Brazilian Bonfim has 12 submissions in 16 career wins, while Williams has won the majority of his bouts by knockout. Bonfim’s technical striking isn’t too far behind Williams’, but he has a massive power and durability disadvantage.

Thus, Bonfim is likely to finish the fight on the ground if he gets it there, while Williams should be able to find the button if it stays on the feet. That gives both men solid upside, though when considering price and ownership, I prefer Williams.

Sean Zerillo and I both gave our reasons for being optimistic about Williams in this week’s UFC Betting Preview:

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 71 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blaydes vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights UFC 289 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nunes vs. Aldana, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 75 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Vettori vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights UFC 303 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prochazka, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.