We’ve arrived at the last event of the year. Rather than the low-level Apex card of years past, this time, we have a surprisingly decent card headlined by welterweight contenders on the road in Tampa, Florida.
The 13-fight card locks at 7:00 p.m. ET, so you’ve got plenty of time to get lineups in.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Joaquin Buckley ($9,000) vs. Colby Covington ($7,200)
Joaquin Buckley was originally set to fight Ian Garry on this event, before Garry got called up to a number-one contender fight at last week’s UFC 310.
That was, on paper, a much tougher matchup for Buckley than he has now. Colby Covington is stepping in on somewhat short notice, having not fought in nearly a year. The last time we saw him was a bizarre performance against former champion Leon Edwards, in which Covington lost a third title shot without ever really pushing the pace.
He’s six years older, noticeably less athletic, and smaller than Buckley, who’s become one of the division’s most dangerous strikers. The former middleweight dropped down to 170 after going 5-4 at 185 lbs. As a welterweight, he’s 5-0 with three knockouts.
That’s come against increasingly tough competition, with Buckley looking better in each fight. He’s also added plenty of offensive wrestling to his game — which could be the key dynamic in this fight. Covington likely needs to wrestle to have a chance against the more powerful striker, but if Buckley’s grappling improvements translate defensively as well, Covington is in trouble.
The other hope for Covington is outlasting the explosive Buckley. This is the first five-rounder for “New Mansa” and Covington is noted for his cardio. That wouldn’t be the best scenario for either man from a DFS standpoint, but any win probably gets Covington into the optimal.
For cash games, I’ll be somewhat begrudgingly stacking this one. There’s a decent chance Covington gets starched early, but he has a solid floor otherwise, thanks to his grappling output. I’ll have way more Buckley in GPPs though, thanks to his excellent upside relative to his price.
The Easy Chalk
Vitor Petrino ($9,100)
There are six fighters in the $9,000+ salary range this week, all of whom have relatively similar projections. The best all-around floor/ceiling combo for the price is Petrino, though. He suffered his first career loss in his last fight, a fairly fluky guillotine by Anthony Smith that Petrino jumped right into.
Now he gets another winnable fight in Dustin Jacoby ($7,100). The 36-year-old is 1-4 across his last five, including two knockout losses. He’s a former kickboxer whose chin seems to be failing him, as he’s suffered four knockdowns in that span.
Jacoby also isn’t a great grappler, and the Brazilian Petrino averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes. Assuming he can keep his neck out of danger, that’s the clear easy path to a win here.
The betting line has moved Petrino’s way this week, making him slightly undervalued at his price. This is also one of the fights likeliest to hit the judges based on betting odds, making the favorite a solid play in all contest types.
The Upside Play
Manel Kape ($9,200)
The range of outcomes for Kape is arguably the highest of any of the top-tier fighters. He’s taking on Bruno Silva ($7,000) in a matchup of two of the best power punchers at flyweight, the UFC’s lightest division.
Before his razor-close decision loss to Mohamed Mokaev, Kape had won four straight bouts, picking up at least one knockdown in each matchup. Mokaev was able to use his wrestling to stifle the striking opportunities for Kape — but that’s unlikely to be an issue here.
Silva started his UFC career trying to grapple, landing nine takedowns across his first three UFC fights. He picked up zero wins in that span. He’s since switched to a more striking-heavy approach, with a four-fight knockdown streak of his own.
That’s been against much lower competition than Kape has fought, though. That’s why “Starboy” is a -375 favorite coming into this one.
Given the power from both men, a quick knockout from either side wouldn’t be entirely surprising. However, Kape is the likelier of the pair. For that reason — and his likely low ownership — he’s an excellent GPP option.
The Value Play
Davey Grant ($8,000)
The case for Grant is fairly simple. He opened the week as a slight underdog against Ramon Tavares ($8,200), but has gotten enough betting action that he’s now a slight favorite or a pick ’em, depending on the sportsbook.
I was hoping he’d come in with a slightly lower price tag, but it’s still worth taking advantage of the chance for some salary relief given all the expensive fighters around.
Grant is 2-2 in his last four fights, but both losses came via split decision. Coincidentally, both came against fellow UFC Tampa fighters: Daniel Marcos ($8,500) and Adrian Yanez ($7,700) who meet on the main card.
Tavares is 1-0 in the UFC, but that win was a split decision that 100% of media members scored the other way. With slightly different luck for both men, this could easily be a matchup between a fighter on a four-fight winning streak against an 0-1 opponent.
Grant has also finished his last four wins, so he has some sneaky upside relative to his price. He’s a strong play in all contest types.
On the cheaper side, Piera Rodriguez ($7,400) has a strong floor for her price tag, thanks to her fight being -400 or so to go all 15 minutes. I’m not as interested in Rodriguez for tournaments, but she’s a solid cash option.
The Contrarian Choice
Felipe Lima ($8,900)
It seems like much of the field will be focused on the $9K+ fighters this week, leaving an ownership vacuum for the “upper middle class” of the salary range.
That could be a mistake with Lima. He’s a 13-1 prospect who’s 1-0 in the UFC, after taking a short-notice fight back in June and picking up a submission win. It’s reasonable to expect him to look even better this time around, with a full training camp to prepare for Miles Johns ($7,300).
The other notable element of this fight is that Johns is stepping up to featherweight, after fighting exclusively at bantamweight in the UFC prior to this matchup. Lima seemed a bit out-muscled at times in his UFC debut but likely won’t have that problem here. Also a former bantamweight, he’ll at least be similar in size to Johns, if not slightly bigger.
Lima’s last loss came in his pro debut at just 17 years old, and he’s got plenty of experience for a fighter who’s still just 26. UFC Tampa could be his coming-out party, so I want to be ahead of the field in terms of exposure to him.
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The Swing Fight
Billy Quarantillo ($8,600) vs. Cub Swanson ($7,800)
Typically, the swing fight is one where I’m interested in both fighters, thanks to fairly even odds and a high likelihood the fight ends inside the distance.
That’s not quite the situation here. Quarantillo is a high-volume striker with little interest in defense. That makes him capable of putting up big DFS scores — but also allowing them. His last three losses have included two finishes, and a fight where he absorbed just under 200 significant strikes.
He has solid upside here — if he can dictate the pace and keep plenty of offense in the face of Cub Swanson.
Swanson is more defensively sound, but still has big power at age 41. Known for his flashy one-shot knockouts, he has a solid style to catch the defensively-lacking Quarantillo slipping. At his price tag, any finish probably gets the job done, though we’d obviously prefer it to come early.
Thus, there’s a solid case for both men — though the field seems all about Quarantillo based on ownership projections around the industry. Which could be a leak — the betting line has shifted towards the underdog Swanson.
I want a decent amount of both, though I’ll be fading the (DFS) crowd and going overweight on Swanson here.
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