UFC

UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is giving us a second event in a row away from the Apex Center, a refreshing change from the usual schedule. The main event features fan favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis taking on fast-rising heavyweight Rodrigo Nascimento.

The 13-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Derrick Lewis ($8,400) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento ($7,800)

The main even on Saturday night is a tricky one for DFS. With -1400 odds to end inside the distance and both fighters’ salaries coming in reasonably, the winner of this one almost certainly ends in the optimal lineup. However, the floor for either man is extremely low.

Lewis is the “A side” here. The UFC’s all-time knockout leader is always live to pick up another one, especially in a somewhat lower-level matchup than he typically faces. Nascimento is ranked #15 in the UFC rankings, below each of Lewis’ last five opponents. Of course, Lewis went 1-4 in those bouts, so a step down was in order.

Nascimento also lacks the skill set of those opponents, be it strong grappling (Jailton Almeida, Serghei Spivac) or massive power (Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich). Still, he’s eight years younger with a 4-1 UFC record, and likely to be more motivated than Lewis following his recent contract extension.

That motivation is the key in handicapping Lewis, who has clearly came into past fights either untrained, injured, or both. At his best, he’s a multi-time title contender; at his worst, he’s getting dominated over two rounds by Spivac.

I don’t love stacking this fight for cash given the low floors of both fighters. If Lewis can’t find a knockout, he’s a low-volume striker with almost 0 grappling. Nascimento should score well on a per-minute basis with his striking volume, but he could be knocked out at any point.

If you have a strong lean on this one, I’d stick with it for cash. Stacking guarantees you don’t miss out on the winner though, so it’s fine if you’re torn. For GPPs, I’ll want one or the other in most lineups, as the ceiling is certainly there (especially relative to their salaries) for both.

The Easy Chalk

Mateusz Rebecki ($9,400)

Thanks to significant line movement, Mateusz Rebecki is the heaviest favorite on the UFC St. Louis card. His moneyline odds have climbed all the way to -500 on Friday afternoon for his fight against Diego Ferreira ($6,800).

Rebecki is a surging UFC prospect, with a 19-1 overall record and 3-0 promotional mark. Ferreira is a 39-year-old veteran of 14 UFC fights who is 1-3 since January of 2020. His lone win was a knockout against fellow “fighter of a certain age” Michael Johnson, and he was finished in two of three losses.

Rebecki has massive power for the division with nine career knockouts, and he is also a relentless grappler who averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. The combination of those two factors is a potent one for DFS, as he could put up a big score in a quick finish or rack up takedowns over a longer fight.

That grappling upside is why I prefer Rebecki over fellow heavy favorite Carlos Ulberg ($9,300), who doesn’t grapple and thus needs a quick win to pay off his salary.

The Upside Play

Robelis Despaigne ($9,000)

Robelis Despaigne is 5-0 as a professional, with his last four wins coming in at under 40 seconds — combined. The Cuban Olympian in Taekwondo is late to the sport at age 35, but his prior background and obvious athletic gifts are hard to deny. He has the longest reach in UFC history at 87 inches and lightning-quick hands and feet.

One of those wins came in the UFC, and he scored 127 DraftKings points thanks to the early win bonus. He’s very live to do so again this week, with even-money odds to win in the first round.

His one-dimensional game is likely to be exploitable by the top of the UFC heavyweight division, but that’s not Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($7,200). “Salsa Boy” is also a big, quick, athletic heavyweight with a limited overall skill set. He’s just not as big, quick, or powerful as Despaigne.

Despaigne will be massively popular this week, with his moneyline odds moving from -180 to -250 since Monday. He’s probably worth eating the ownership anyway.

The Value Play

Nursulton Ruziboev ($7,500)

Ruziboev is another fighter who’s seen considerable line movement his direction. He was a +140 underdog early in the week and has settled in between +110 and +115 after weigh-ins.

He’s competing in the co-main event against St. Louis native Joaquin Buckley ($8,700), in what should be an explosive fight. Both men are former middleweights with massive power for the 170lb division, and the fight is -330 to end inside the distance.

I like the well-rounded game of Ruziboev along with his size advantage. While both of his UFC wins have been first-round knockouts, he trains with some of the best MMA grapplers in the game at Renzo Gracie Philly, including UFC welterweights Sean Brady and Jeremiah Wells.

He also has plenty of submission wins on his pre-UFC record. While Buckley has improved his wrestling, once it hits the mat, this one should be all Ruziboev.

Sean Zerillo and I disagreed on this one, which we discussed on our latest UFC Betting Preview:

The Contrarian Choice

Chase Hooper ($7,700)

Chase “The Dream” Hooper has looked like a new man at 155 lbs, moving up from featherweight last year and picking up two impressive wins. The 6’1″ 24-year-old has packed more muscle on his frame, allowing him to compete athletically with UFC-caliber opponents.

He gets a step up in competition in Viacheslav Borschev ($8,500), better known as “Slava Claus.” Slava Claus is a fast-paced high energy striker, who averages nearly six significant strikes per minute while never so much as attempting a takedown in the UFC.

Hooper is an elite submission grappler who was a youth jiu-jitsu prodigy before making the switch to MMA. His takedowns are somewhat lacking, but he’s a force to be reckoned with on the mat. Borschev has been taken down in all but one of his UFC appearances, with a poor 36% takedown rate.

Additionally, the five-inch reach advantage for Hooper means Borschev will need to close the distance aggressively to land strikes, which works out nicely for Hooper, who prefers trips and clinch takedowns over shooting at range.

I love the stylistic matchup for Hooper here, and he should score well enough in any win to pay off his underdog price tag.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Esteban Ribovics ($8,900) vs. Terrance McKinney ($7,300)

Terrance McKinney might be the most dangerous fighter in the UFC — for about half of a round. All five of his UFC victories have come within two and a half minutes, as have 13 of his 15 professional wins (with just one lasting past the first round.)

That gives him a massive ceiling relative to his price — he’s never scored fewer than 97 DraftKings points in a win.

However, things go south quickly for McKinney after that point. His three UFC losses have all been stoppages, twice at the end of Round 1 and once in Round 2. That means Ribovics also has a high ceiling here, as he should be able to finish a gassed McKinney before too long.

While I expect Ribovics to do that more often than not, McKinney is the better DFS play here. A second-round finish for Ribovics might not be enough at his price tag since he’ll need to compete with fighters like Despaigne and Rebecki who could put up bigger scores.

Still, I’ll have a fair share of both fighters. This one is -900 to end inside the distance, and even a disappointing Ribovics win would produce a very strong score.

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The UFC is giving us a second event in a row away from the Apex Center, a refreshing change from the usual schedule. The main event features fan favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis taking on fast-rising heavyweight Rodrigo Nascimento.

The 13-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Derrick Lewis ($8,400) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento ($7,800)

The main even on Saturday night is a tricky one for DFS. With -1400 odds to end inside the distance and both fighters’ salaries coming in reasonably, the winner of this one almost certainly ends in the optimal lineup. However, the floor for either man is extremely low.

Lewis is the “A side” here. The UFC’s all-time knockout leader is always live to pick up another one, especially in a somewhat lower-level matchup than he typically faces. Nascimento is ranked #15 in the UFC rankings, below each of Lewis’ last five opponents. Of course, Lewis went 1-4 in those bouts, so a step down was in order.

Nascimento also lacks the skill set of those opponents, be it strong grappling (Jailton Almeida, Serghei Spivac) or massive power (Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich). Still, he’s eight years younger with a 4-1 UFC record, and likely to be more motivated than Lewis following his recent contract extension.

That motivation is the key in handicapping Lewis, who has clearly came into past fights either untrained, injured, or both. At his best, he’s a multi-time title contender; at his worst, he’s getting dominated over two rounds by Spivac.

I don’t love stacking this fight for cash given the low floors of both fighters. If Lewis can’t find a knockout, he’s a low-volume striker with almost 0 grappling. Nascimento should score well on a per-minute basis with his striking volume, but he could be knocked out at any point.

If you have a strong lean on this one, I’d stick with it for cash. Stacking guarantees you don’t miss out on the winner though, so it’s fine if you’re torn. For GPPs, I’ll want one or the other in most lineups, as the ceiling is certainly there (especially relative to their salaries) for both.

The Easy Chalk

Mateusz Rebecki ($9,400)

Thanks to significant line movement, Mateusz Rebecki is the heaviest favorite on the UFC St. Louis card. His moneyline odds have climbed all the way to -500 on Friday afternoon for his fight against Diego Ferreira ($6,800).

Rebecki is a surging UFC prospect, with a 19-1 overall record and 3-0 promotional mark. Ferreira is a 39-year-old veteran of 14 UFC fights who is 1-3 since January of 2020. His lone win was a knockout against fellow “fighter of a certain age” Michael Johnson, and he was finished in two of three losses.

Rebecki has massive power for the division with nine career knockouts, and he is also a relentless grappler who averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. The combination of those two factors is a potent one for DFS, as he could put up a big score in a quick finish or rack up takedowns over a longer fight.

That grappling upside is why I prefer Rebecki over fellow heavy favorite Carlos Ulberg ($9,300), who doesn’t grapple and thus needs a quick win to pay off his salary.

The Upside Play

Robelis Despaigne ($9,000)

Robelis Despaigne is 5-0 as a professional, with his last four wins coming in at under 40 seconds — combined. The Cuban Olympian in Taekwondo is late to the sport at age 35, but his prior background and obvious athletic gifts are hard to deny. He has the longest reach in UFC history at 87 inches and lightning-quick hands and feet.

One of those wins came in the UFC, and he scored 127 DraftKings points thanks to the early win bonus. He’s very live to do so again this week, with even-money odds to win in the first round.

His one-dimensional game is likely to be exploitable by the top of the UFC heavyweight division, but that’s not Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($7,200). “Salsa Boy” is also a big, quick, athletic heavyweight with a limited overall skill set. He’s just not as big, quick, or powerful as Despaigne.

Despaigne will be massively popular this week, with his moneyline odds moving from -180 to -250 since Monday. He’s probably worth eating the ownership anyway.

The Value Play

Nursulton Ruziboev ($7,500)

Ruziboev is another fighter who’s seen considerable line movement his direction. He was a +140 underdog early in the week and has settled in between +110 and +115 after weigh-ins.

He’s competing in the co-main event against St. Louis native Joaquin Buckley ($8,700), in what should be an explosive fight. Both men are former middleweights with massive power for the 170lb division, and the fight is -330 to end inside the distance.

I like the well-rounded game of Ruziboev along with his size advantage. While both of his UFC wins have been first-round knockouts, he trains with some of the best MMA grapplers in the game at Renzo Gracie Philly, including UFC welterweights Sean Brady and Jeremiah Wells.

He also has plenty of submission wins on his pre-UFC record. While Buckley has improved his wrestling, once it hits the mat, this one should be all Ruziboev.

Sean Zerillo and I disagreed on this one, which we discussed on our latest UFC Betting Preview:

The Contrarian Choice

Chase Hooper ($7,700)

Chase “The Dream” Hooper has looked like a new man at 155 lbs, moving up from featherweight last year and picking up two impressive wins. The 6’1″ 24-year-old has packed more muscle on his frame, allowing him to compete athletically with UFC-caliber opponents.

He gets a step up in competition in Viacheslav Borschev ($8,500), better known as “Slava Claus.” Slava Claus is a fast-paced high energy striker, who averages nearly six significant strikes per minute while never so much as attempting a takedown in the UFC.

Hooper is an elite submission grappler who was a youth jiu-jitsu prodigy before making the switch to MMA. His takedowns are somewhat lacking, but he’s a force to be reckoned with on the mat. Borschev has been taken down in all but one of his UFC appearances, with a poor 36% takedown rate.

Additionally, the five-inch reach advantage for Hooper means Borschev will need to close the distance aggressively to land strikes, which works out nicely for Hooper, who prefers trips and clinch takedowns over shooting at range.

I love the stylistic matchup for Hooper here, and he should score well enough in any win to pay off his underdog price tag.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Esteban Ribovics ($8,900) vs. Terrance McKinney ($7,300)

Terrance McKinney might be the most dangerous fighter in the UFC — for about half of a round. All five of his UFC victories have come within two and a half minutes, as have 13 of his 15 professional wins (with just one lasting past the first round.)

That gives him a massive ceiling relative to his price — he’s never scored fewer than 97 DraftKings points in a win.

However, things go south quickly for McKinney after that point. His three UFC losses have all been stoppages, twice at the end of Round 1 and once in Round 2. That means Ribovics also has a high ceiling here, as he should be able to finish a gassed McKinney before too long.

While I expect Ribovics to do that more often than not, McKinney is the better DFS play here. A second-round finish for Ribovics might not be enough at his price tag since he’ll need to compete with fighters like Despaigne and Rebecki who could put up bigger scores.

Still, I’ll have a fair share of both fighters. This one is -900 to end inside the distance, and even a disappointing Ribovics win would produce a very strong score.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 283 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Hill vs. Teixera, More Saturday Fights UFC 284 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Volkanovski vs. Makhachev, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 69 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Andrade, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 90 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Curtis, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.