UFC Singapore marks the UFC’s return to southeast Asia after UFC 275 took place at the Singapore Indoor Stadium last summer. The headliner features two veteran featherweights in Max Holloway and “the Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, in what is likely his retirement fight.
Due to the time zone differences, the 13-fight card kicks off at 5:00 AM ET Saturday morning, so be sure to have your lineups situated on Friday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Max Holloway ($9,700) vs. Chan Sung Jung ($6,500)
If it ends up being his last fight, this is a tough way to go out for The Korean Zombie. He’s a heavy underdog at +550 or so against Holloway, who hasn’t lost a fight at featherweight to anyone besides the champion in over a decade.
Even that statement doesn’t do Holloway justice, as he’s been rarely challenged by any other 145lbs fighter, while frequently sending top prospects back down the ranking. All three of his losses to Alexander Volkanovski were reasonably close — the Same Volkanovski who put a hellacious beating on Jung in between the Holloway trilogy.
Stylistically this is a tremendous matchup for DFS. Holloway has an outlandish significant strike rate of over seven per minute, while Jung got his nickname thanks to his willingness to absorb punishment while continuing to march forward. Holloway holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history at 3122, with the second-place fighter at 1820.
He’ll likely continue to expand on that lead on Saturday, with a huge DFS score well within reach. He’s topped 150 DraftKings points in two of his last three wins, despite both going to decision. Jung has a solid floor from a cash game standpoint though, as Holloway is unlikely to end things early.
For that reason, I’ll be stacking both in cash games, while trying to maximize my Holloway exposure for GPPs.
The Easy Chalk
Rinya Nakamura ($9,600)
Nakamura is Japan’s answer to Bo Nickal, a world-class athlete with a high level of freestyle wrestling and a rapidly developing MMA game. Nakamura was the under-23 world champion in freestyle wrestling in 2019 but made the jump to MMA when the 2020 Olympics were postponed due to COVID-19.
Since then, he’s picked up seven straight wins, five of them in the first round (and three of those in the first minute.) Like Nickal, his natural athleticism and wrestling threat make him dangerous in the striking department as well, with both fighters picking up quick knockouts with big left hands in their last fights.
Nakamura’s fight with Fernie Garcia ($6,600) isn’t intended to be a competitive one, it’s intended as a showcase for the top Asian prospect in the sport during this event in Asia. He’s even money to win this fight in the opening round and should be a priority in all contest types.
The Value Plays
Taila Santos ($7,700)
The fight between Santos and Erin Blanchfield ($8,500) is the hardcore fans’ main event on Saturday. Santos is making her return to competition after losing a close — and poorly judged — split decision to former champion Valentina Shevchenko in her last bout.
Blanchfield is one of the most interesting prospects in the sport, a 24-year-old BJJ black belt with truly elite grappling ability. Her jiu-jitsu game is built for MMA, with a rare blend of submission and takedown ability. However, Santos is also an excellent grappler, and looked levels ahead of Shevchenko before running out of gas in the championship rounds.
Santos also checks all of the “floor play” boxes we’re looking for, with a solid striking output, and the best odds to see a decision of any fight on the card. Even if you think the betting line/salary is roughly correct, that makes her a strong cash game play.
If, like me, you think Santos is the deserving favorite here, then she’s also an excellent GPP play. I broke down the reasons why, with more in-depth technical analysis, in my betting preview at The Action Network.
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The Upside Play
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($8,200)
On any other week, the fight between Oleksiejczuk and Chidi Njokuani ($8,000) would be an obvious choice for the “swing fight” section. We’ll get to why that isn’t the case this week later, but for now, let’s focus on the upside.
This fight is -360 to end inside the distance and is being contested by two aggressive strikers with little interest in grappling. Oleksiejczuk has seen just two decisions in his 11-fight UFC career, with the rest of his bouts either knockout wins (five) or submission losses (three).
Njokuani has never so much as attempted a takedown in his UFC career, so we can be reasonably confident a submission loss isn’t in the cards for Oleksiejczuk. He’s been dominant when he’s able to keep his fights standing — especially since moving down to 185 — with a good chance of doing so again here.
Njokuani is 34 years old and riding a two-fight losing streak as well, with the 28-year-old Oleksiejczuk just now entering his physical peak. The age gap isn’t huge, but when projecting the progression (or regression) of two ostensibly similar fighters, the younger one tends to have the edge.
Oleksiejczuk has also picked up the occasional takedown when facing other strikers, including Khalil Rountree and Dustin Jacoby. That gives him a path to slightly more upside here, but the real appeal is his power and finishing ability.
The Contrarian Choice
Jarno Errens ($7,400)
The opening bout of the night features Errens, a Dutch kickboxer who was out-grappled in his UFC debut by William Gomis. This time, he gets a much better stylistic matchup with Seung Woo Choi ($8,800), who is also primarily a striker.
While Choi goes for the occasional takedown, it’s not his main method of attack. That could be problematic against the more credentialed striking game of Errens. Especially considering Choi’s recent form, in which he’s lost three straight bouts including a knockout defeat in November.
The line has moved considerably towards Errens throughout the week as well, which is another sign that sharper bettors like him to pull off the slight upset. Sharper bettors like Sean Zerillo, who discussed Errens as one of his favorite underdogs on our UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
The Swing Fight
Ryan Spann ($8,300) vs. Anthony Smih ($7,900)
As mentioned above, there’s a no-doubt “swing fight” candidate at UFC Singapore. That’s the rematch between Ryan Spann and Anthony Smith, which is -650 to end inside the distance.
They last in 2021 when Smith picked up a first-round submission victory. Smith has a clear edge in the technical grappling over Spann and would be well served to get this fight to the ground.
Spann is an extremely dangerous finisher, though. Five of his seven UFC wins came inside the distance, with all of them in seven minutes or less. He’s also been finished in all of his losses, frequently gassing out when the early win doesn’t come.
I’m big on the Spann side of things this time, though. Smith suffered a nasty leg break in his fight after Spann and hasn’t looked the same since. His speed and athleticism have fallen off a cliff, which makes getting a takedown a difficult proposition.
Spann’s physical edges should be enough to overcome the technical deficiencies he has here, with the likeliest win coming early. I’m loading up on Spann but will be mixing in Smith in some lineups as well. It’s highly likely the winner here ends up in the optimal lineup no matter who it is.
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