UFC

UFC Saudi Arabia DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Imavov, More Saturday Fights

The UFC has a special start time on Saturday, with the card in Riyadh starting at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time. Be sure to get your lineups in early for the event, which is headlined by Israel Adesanya taking on Nassourdine Imavov in a battle of top-five middleweights.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
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Main Event

Israel Adesanya ($8,600) vs. Nassourdine Imavov ($7,600)

Depending on your outlook, this is either a perfect “get right” spot for the former champ after consecutive title losses or a passing of the torch to a new contender in Imavov.

Either way, it’s the lone five-round fight on the UFC Saudi Arabia card, and it’s favored to go the full 25 minutes. That creates a pretty solid floor for both fighters, making it a no-brainer stack in cash games, especially with a relatively thin 11-fight offering overall.

The GPP conversation is a bit more nuanced. Adesanya theoretically has plenty of upside with his finishing ability, though his per-minute numbers aren’t great. That makes him a tough play at $8,600 since he’s +330 to finish Imavov with strikes, and the underdog has never been knocked out nor knocked down in the UFC.

Imavov’s salary means he doesn’t need to do as much to challenge for the optimal lineup, and he also potentially brings some grappling upside. However, it’s a tough matchup for that, with Adesanya boasting a 75% takedown defense (against the division’s best, no less). That said, Dricus du Plessis managed to take him down four times in his last fight, so it’s not impossible.

That’s enough for Imavov to be the considerably better GPP play in my eyes, but I don’t think this fight is a must-play by any stretch. I’ll have some GPP lineups with neither man and some with Imavov myself.

The Easy Chalk

Terrance McKinney ($9,200)

Throughout his MMA career, Terrance McKinney‘s fights have gone one of two ways. He either wins in the first round, or he loses.

Of his 15 pro wins, 14 have come in the first frame (the other was still a finish), including all seven in the UFC. That obviously translates to some impressive DFS scores when he wins, though he’s a bit boom-or-bust.

The “bust” side of the equation doesn’t seem especially likely against Damir Hadzovic ($7,000), though. The 38-year-old Bosnian last appeared in the Octagon in July of 2022, and his last win dates back to the summer of 2021.

McKinney is a -500 or so favorite and around -150 to win in the very first round. That’s about as good as you’ll ever see, especially at his comparatively affordable $9,200 price tag.

The Upside Plays

Sergei Pavlovich ($9,100)

At least when discussing his UFC career, we could say the same thing about Pavlovich as we said about McKinney. All six of his wins in the promotion have been in Round 1, with two of those occurring in the very first minute.

He’s also 0-2 in his last two fights, with a quick (extremely short notice) knockout to interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall followed by a one-sided decision loss to Alexander Volkov.

His opponent this week, Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,100), is a step down from both of those men. However, he’s a far more credible opponent than somebody like Hadzovic, as a top-ten heavyweight in the UFC.

Pavlovich is around -300 on the moneyline and about -125 to win in Round 1. Both of those are a bit shy of McKinney, and Rozenstruik is a plausible threat to pull off the upset. That’s what makes McKinney the safer play, but the ceiling (and likeliest outcome) for both men is almost exactly the same.

The Value Play

Vinicius Oliveira ($7,500)

Oliveira doesn’t provide the safety we typically like to see from our “value play,” as his opponent Said Nurmagomedov ($8,700) is a dangerous — if fairly one-note — finisher. However, Oliveira is a considerable value based on movement in the betting markets.

After opening around +165 when DraftKings released salaries, the line has continually moved towards Oliveira. He’s just a +135 underdog as of Thursday night, and further movement wouldn’t surprise me.

That’s because he’s the better overall fighter than Nurmagomedov, who bears no familial nor training relationship with Khabib Nurmagomedov and company. He also fights entirely differently, with a striking base that’s asking for trouble against the more explosive Oliveira.

I’d understand not wanting to take the risk on Oliveira for cash games, but his market-based value and upside are both extremely strong. That makes him a great GPP play, and I’m probably looking his way in cash as well.

The Contrarian Choice

Mayra Bueno Silva ($7,300)

Mayra Bueno Silva could easily fill the “value play” role this week, if for no other reason than she’s very cheap and competing in the fight likeliest to go to a decision.

However, she’s also projecting for reasonably low ownership despite holding most of the finishing upside in her matchup with Jasmine Jasudavicius ($8,900). While Bueno Silva is a +200 or so underdog overall, her “finish only” line at DraftKings is roughly even with her opponent.

“Sheetara” has finished four of five UFC wins (plus a submission over Holly Holm that was later changed to a no-contest) while struggling when fights get extended. Jasudavicius has just two UFC finishes in six wins, both D’Arce chokes. Those are somewhat unlikely to work against another talented grappler.

That gives Bueno Silva a strong floor since she likely goes all 15 minutes in a loss, and plenty of upside if she comes out strong. That’s a perfect combination at $7,300.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fights

Bogdan Grad ($8,300) vs. Lucas Alexander ($7,900)

Besides being one of the closest fights in terms of DFS pricing, this featherweight matchup is one of just five on the slate favored to end inside the distance, with the other four all featuring fairly heavy favorites.

It’s the UFC debut for Grad, who’s coming off a win in his second shot at the Contender Series. I broke down both of those fights with a similar scouting report both times. Grad is a strong — if over-eager — grappler with a propensity to find himself in striking brawls unnecessarily.

When he grapples, as he did in his sophomore tryout, he can out-muscle opponents and do plenty of damage on the ground. When he strikes, somebody is getting knocked out — but it might be Grad.

That makes things interesting against Lucas Alexander, considering somebody has been knocked down in each of his last two UFC fights. Alexander has power and solid striking defense but a questionable chin and grappling acumen.

If it weren’t for line movement pushing Alexander to be a favorite here, I’d be confidently loading up on Grad. As it stands, I still like Grad as a “pay up to be contrarian” option while acknowledging the possibility that the market sees something I don’t.

The winner here probably does more than enough to find their way into the optimal lineup, so play as much of these guys as possible. I’ll let ownership dictate which one makes any individual lineup. Since Grad should be much lower-owned, he makes sense when paired with chalkier fighters.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 84 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Ankalaev vs. Walker, More Saturday Fights UFC Macau DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Yan vs. Figueiredo, More Saturday Fights UFC Tampa DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Buckley vs. Covington, More Saturday Fights

The UFC has a special start time on Saturday, with the card in Riyadh starting at 9:00 a.m. Eastern time. Be sure to get your lineups in early for the event, which is headlined by Israel Adesanya taking on Nassourdine Imavov in a battle of top-five middleweights.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Israel Adesanya ($8,600) vs. Nassourdine Imavov ($7,600)

Depending on your outlook, this is either a perfect “get right” spot for the former champ after consecutive title losses or a passing of the torch to a new contender in Imavov.

Either way, it’s the lone five-round fight on the UFC Saudi Arabia card, and it’s favored to go the full 25 minutes. That creates a pretty solid floor for both fighters, making it a no-brainer stack in cash games, especially with a relatively thin 11-fight offering overall.

The GPP conversation is a bit more nuanced. Adesanya theoretically has plenty of upside with his finishing ability, though his per-minute numbers aren’t great. That makes him a tough play at $8,600 since he’s +330 to finish Imavov with strikes, and the underdog has never been knocked out nor knocked down in the UFC.

Imavov’s salary means he doesn’t need to do as much to challenge for the optimal lineup, and he also potentially brings some grappling upside. However, it’s a tough matchup for that, with Adesanya boasting a 75% takedown defense (against the division’s best, no less). That said, Dricus du Plessis managed to take him down four times in his last fight, so it’s not impossible.

That’s enough for Imavov to be the considerably better GPP play in my eyes, but I don’t think this fight is a must-play by any stretch. I’ll have some GPP lineups with neither man and some with Imavov myself.

The Easy Chalk

Terrance McKinney ($9,200)

Throughout his MMA career, Terrance McKinney‘s fights have gone one of two ways. He either wins in the first round, or he loses.

Of his 15 pro wins, 14 have come in the first frame (the other was still a finish), including all seven in the UFC. That obviously translates to some impressive DFS scores when he wins, though he’s a bit boom-or-bust.

The “bust” side of the equation doesn’t seem especially likely against Damir Hadzovic ($7,000), though. The 38-year-old Bosnian last appeared in the Octagon in July of 2022, and his last win dates back to the summer of 2021.

McKinney is a -500 or so favorite and around -150 to win in the very first round. That’s about as good as you’ll ever see, especially at his comparatively affordable $9,200 price tag.

The Upside Plays

Sergei Pavlovich ($9,100)

At least when discussing his UFC career, we could say the same thing about Pavlovich as we said about McKinney. All six of his wins in the promotion have been in Round 1, with two of those occurring in the very first minute.

He’s also 0-2 in his last two fights, with a quick (extremely short notice) knockout to interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall followed by a one-sided decision loss to Alexander Volkov.

His opponent this week, Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,100), is a step down from both of those men. However, he’s a far more credible opponent than somebody like Hadzovic, as a top-ten heavyweight in the UFC.

Pavlovich is around -300 on the moneyline and about -125 to win in Round 1. Both of those are a bit shy of McKinney, and Rozenstruik is a plausible threat to pull off the upset. That’s what makes McKinney the safer play, but the ceiling (and likeliest outcome) for both men is almost exactly the same.

The Value Play

Vinicius Oliveira ($7,500)

Oliveira doesn’t provide the safety we typically like to see from our “value play,” as his opponent Said Nurmagomedov ($8,700) is a dangerous — if fairly one-note — finisher. However, Oliveira is a considerable value based on movement in the betting markets.

After opening around +165 when DraftKings released salaries, the line has continually moved towards Oliveira. He’s just a +135 underdog as of Thursday night, and further movement wouldn’t surprise me.

That’s because he’s the better overall fighter than Nurmagomedov, who bears no familial nor training relationship with Khabib Nurmagomedov and company. He also fights entirely differently, with a striking base that’s asking for trouble against the more explosive Oliveira.

I’d understand not wanting to take the risk on Oliveira for cash games, but his market-based value and upside are both extremely strong. That makes him a great GPP play, and I’m probably looking his way in cash as well.

The Contrarian Choice

Mayra Bueno Silva ($7,300)

Mayra Bueno Silva could easily fill the “value play” role this week, if for no other reason than she’s very cheap and competing in the fight likeliest to go to a decision.

However, she’s also projecting for reasonably low ownership despite holding most of the finishing upside in her matchup with Jasmine Jasudavicius ($8,900). While Bueno Silva is a +200 or so underdog overall, her “finish only” line at DraftKings is roughly even with her opponent.

“Sheetara” has finished four of five UFC wins (plus a submission over Holly Holm that was later changed to a no-contest) while struggling when fights get extended. Jasudavicius has just two UFC finishes in six wins, both D’Arce chokes. Those are somewhat unlikely to work against another talented grappler.

That gives Bueno Silva a strong floor since she likely goes all 15 minutes in a loss, and plenty of upside if she comes out strong. That’s a perfect combination at $7,300.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fights

Bogdan Grad ($8,300) vs. Lucas Alexander ($7,900)

Besides being one of the closest fights in terms of DFS pricing, this featherweight matchup is one of just five on the slate favored to end inside the distance, with the other four all featuring fairly heavy favorites.

It’s the UFC debut for Grad, who’s coming off a win in his second shot at the Contender Series. I broke down both of those fights with a similar scouting report both times. Grad is a strong — if over-eager — grappler with a propensity to find himself in striking brawls unnecessarily.

When he grapples, as he did in his sophomore tryout, he can out-muscle opponents and do plenty of damage on the ground. When he strikes, somebody is getting knocked out — but it might be Grad.

That makes things interesting against Lucas Alexander, considering somebody has been knocked down in each of his last two UFC fights. Alexander has power and solid striking defense but a questionable chin and grappling acumen.

If it weren’t for line movement pushing Alexander to be a favorite here, I’d be confidently loading up on Grad. As it stands, I still like Grad as a “pay up to be contrarian” option while acknowledging the possibility that the market sees something I don’t.

The winner here probably does more than enough to find their way into the optimal lineup, so play as much of these guys as possible. I’ll let ownership dictate which one makes any individual lineup. Since Grad should be much lower-owned, he makes sense when paired with chalkier fighters.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 84 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Ankalaev vs. Walker, More Saturday Fights UFC Macau DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Yan vs. Figueiredo, More Saturday Fights UFC Tampa DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Buckley vs. Covington, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.