After taking last week off, the UFC is back with an 11-fight card following two fights that were lost to the scales. Headlined by heavyweight contender Jailton Almeida taking on fan-favorite Derrick Lewis, it’s a solid card for a free event.
The action starts — and lineups lock — at 6:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Jailton Almeida ($9,600) vs. Derrick Lewis ($6,600)
For the second event in a row, we have a late change to the main event of a UFC event. Jailton Almeida was originally slated to prove his contender status by taking on Curtis Blaydes before an injury forced Blaydes off the event. In his place is his former foe, Derrick Lewis. The UFC’s all-time knockout king had about two weeks to prepare for an extremely difficult matchup against the elite grappling of “Maldinho.”
We saw at UFC 294 the impact that a lack of training camp can have on a fighter. That’s not ideal for Lewis, who isn’t known for his strict preparation even in the best of circumstances. This might just be a chance to collect a paycheck after signing a hefty new contract following his flying knee knockout in his last fight.
Almeida is 5-0 in the UFC, debuting at light heavyweight before making the jump in January to the heavyweight division. Despite frequently giving up 30+ pounds in weight to his opponents, he’s only been out of the first round once and never seen the third.
Lewis might be the most powerful puncher in the UFC, giving him an outside shot at clipping Almeida with something. However, it’s a brutal matchup for Lewis, who’s historically had a hard time with even lesser grapplers.
Almeida is a massive favorite at around -500 odds and is -190 to finish it in the first round. He should be the most popular fighter on the slate, but an extremely tough fighter to fade. I’ll probably be avoiding Lewis, even in cash games. While this fight is scheduled for five rounds, it’s +600 to even start the fourth. Lewis’ floor is effectively 0, and there’s a far better fight to stack and save salary with.
Of course, we’ve seen him knockout grapplers as an underdog — like the fighter he’s replacing, Curtis Blaydes — in the past. It’s fairly unlikely here, but it’s just possible enough to consider sprinkling him in some GPP lineups if multi-entering.
The Easy Chalk
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($9,100)
Given the salary on Almeida, the savings on Rinat Fakhretdinov relative to other top options make him an excellent option against Elizeu Zaleski ($7,100). Fakhretdinov is the only non-Brazilian favorite on this card who isn’t fighting a late replacement but should have no problem in this matchup in enemy territory.
A near-perfect DFS fighter, Fakhretdinov has either five takedowns or a first-round win in all three of his UFC fights, scoring 122.7 DraftKings points on average. He’s fighting a striker in “Capoeira” Zaleski, who’s been taken down by considerably lesser wrestlers than Fakhretdinov in recent fights.
Fakhretdinov is a former Russian combat Sambo champion, with the relentless grappling we’ve come to expect from fighters of that region. He has a sky-high ceiling thanks to his takedowns, with -375 moneyline odds that represent a great chance of picking up a win bonus as well
There’s even a case to be made for him as a value play, given the ratio of his moneyline odds to his salary. However, he’s scored more points in a decision win than Almeida or either Bonfim have in their first-round wins; the real appeal is his massive ceiling. Either he gets a quick stoppage, or he has plenty of time to rack up takedowns — either way leads to a big score.
The Upside Play
Rodrigo Nascimneto ($8,800)
We have the rematch nobody has been waiting for on the UFC Sao Paulo main card, with Rodrigo Nascimento taking no Don’Tale Mayes ($7,400) again. Nascimento picked up a second-round submission over Mayes back in 2020, taking him down in both rounds and scoring 100 DraftKings points in the process.
Since then, Nascimento is officially 2-1, with Mayes at 3-1. However, those figures are a bit misleading. Nascimento had a second-round knockout victory overturned due to testing positive for Ritalin — which he’s since been approved to use — while Mayes had a loss overturned.
Thus, Nasciemnto is effectively 3-1, with Mayes at 3-2, with the former taking on somewhat tougher competition. He also has a ton of historical trends on his side. The winner of the first match tends to win more often than the odds suggest in rematches, as does the younger fighter, Nascimento is both.
He also tends to be a fast starter, with his recent split decisions largely coming down to fading late. That raises his odds of picking up a stoppage here with his vastly superior grappling ability. He’s a bit overpriced for his overall odds of winning, but he’s likely to get a finish if he wins — which would lead to a solid DFS score.
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The Value Play
Elves Brenner ($8,200) vs. Kanyan Kruschewsky ($7,700)
The standard strategy in UFC DFS cash games is to “stack” both fighters in the main event. Or, in the case of multiple title fights, both fighters in at least one of the five-round bouts. That makes intuitive sense, as you’re locking in either a stoppage win or ten extra minutes of cage time.
However, there are a couple of factors that make deviating from that strategy interesting this week. First is the one-sided odds in the main event, with one fighter highly likely to win quickly. We can lock in almost all of the probable scoring with Almeida without the opportunity cost of using both.
The other factor is the short-notice opponent change for Brenner. Originally slated to fight Esteban Ribovics, he gets a new opponent and better moneyline odds. Since the switch was after salaries dropped, he’s clearly underpriced for his chance of winning. Kruschewsky is priced appropriately for his odds, leaving their combined salaries $300 cheaper than the typical fight..
While over/under lines and finish props aren’t available at the time of this writing, it’s fairly safe to say that this fight is a huge favorite to go longer than the heavyweight main event. That fight has -10000 odds to end by finish, the longest I’ve ever seen. All things considered, that means we’re getting more cage time for a cheaper price while stacking this fight over the main event. That’s an ideal combination in cash games.
For GPPs, Brenner is the clear value. The $300 we’re saving is a result of him being underpriced for his odds. I might mix in some Kruschewsky as well, though. He picked up an impressive finish in his Contender Series bout and could be a live dog on Saturday.
The Contrarian Choice
Nicolas Dalby ($6,900)
This one is a real long shot, with Dalby a +455 underdog against the undefeated Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300) in Saturday’s co-main event. The younger Bonfim brother has needed just over two minutes total to pick up two UFC wins, submitting both of his opponents.
On the other hand, Dalby is a far superior grappler to those past opponents. He’s been in there with elite submission threats and has never been finished in his career. Dalby holds a brown belt of his own in Jiu-Jitsu and also has a background in Karate.
More importantly, Dalby has elite cardio. We’ve seen him turn up the pace in the later rounds of his recent fights, which could give him an edge here. While Bonfim may not have bad cardio, it’s certainly untested — he’s finished all 15 of his professional fights.
Gabriel Bonfim has an edge in power and athleticism, but Dalby could take over down the stretch if he survives the initial onslaught. Given his durability to date, he has a reasonable chance to do just that. I broke down some of the technical reasons why in my betting guide for this fight as well.
Even if a late rally doesn’t get him the win, it might be enough to make it to the optimal lineup, barring some other surprise upsets on the card. That keeps him in play for GPPs, where his ownership will be extremely limited. He’s also a reasonable cash game punt if you think his chances of making it past the first round are better than his betting odds.
The Swing Fight
Armen Petrosyan ($8,300) vs. Rodolfo Viera ($7,900)
Another fight where cardio could play a major factor, this middleweight bout has the closest odds on the slate. Both fighters are slight favorites at different sportsbooks, with no real consensus throughout the industry.
It’s a classic striker-vs-grappler matchup, with Viera one of the most credentialed submission grapplers in the UFC. Petrosyan has an extensive background in kickboxing before transitioning to MMA in 2018.
Both fighters’ cardio reflects their background. Viera typically wins by finish or not at all, while Petrosyan’s three UFC victories have gone the distance. It’s a lot less of an energy drain to kickbox for 15 minutes than grapple, and plenty of submission specialists struggle in later rounds.
Petrosyan has fairly solid takedown defense and will look like a massive favorite in the second half of this fight if it gets that far. However, he’s shown said defense against fighters many steps below Viera in terms of grappling. That’s an encouraging sign but not definitive proof he can fend off Viera.
Still, Viera is the far better DFS option here. Petrosyan hasn’t topped 81 DraftKings points in any of his three wins, as he provides neither takedowns nor finishing upside. Viera has both in his favor, and all of his wins have gone for at least 86 DraftKings points, twice topping the century mark.
There’s an outside shot Petrosyan picks up a knockout here, though. He finished all of his pre-UFC fights, and Viera has been hurt in past bouts. It’s enough for me to sprinkle in a bit of Petrosyan, but I’ll be much heavier on Viera in all contest types.
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