UFC

UFC Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Moicano vs. Saint-Denis, More Saturday Fights

After taking the week off last week, the UFC is back with their annual UFC Paris event. The 14-fight card is headlined by exciting lightweight contenders Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint-Denis, with surging middleweights Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov in the co-main event.

We have a special 12:00 p.m. E.T. start, so be sure to have your lineups locked in early for this one.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,000) vs. Renato Moicano ($7,200)

Benoit Saint-Denis was surging up the rankings before his last fight, a classic “passing of the torch” between the aging Dustin Poirier and the up-and-coming Saint-Denis. That one didn’t go as planned, with Saint-Denis gassing out after a dominant first round and getting finished in the second by Poirier.

He’ll be looking to get back on track against another fan-favorite fighter, Renato “Money” Moicano. Moicano is a ten-year UFC veteran who was 6-4 through his first ten fights before winning five of his last six and dropping some legendary interviews:

Moicano is an elite grappler with tremendous cardio and durability. He’s been hurt plenty of times in his recent run of success but typically finds a way to recover and win the fight down the stretch. That’s a stark contrast to BSD, an extremely powerful fighter whose aggressive style doesn’t hold up well when he gets extended.

That makes this a fairly binary fight, where the favored Saint-Denis is somewhat likely to pick up an early stoppage while Moicano can score a late finish. Either scenario likely pays off their respective salaries, so I’ll have one of the other in almost all of my GPP lineups.

The -700 odds to end inside the distance makes this a sub-optimal cash stack, as odds are the losing fighter finishes at a fairly low score. The argument for stacking it is that missing out on the probably big score from the winner would make it hard to cash. I’ll likely stack it myself, but it’s a close call.

The Easy Chalk

Ludovit Klein ($9,600)

Klein is the obligatory massive favorite on the card, opening as a -700 favorite but with current odds ranging from -950 to -1250. That makes him a fairly obvious top choice, as his salary is only $100 more than the next-priciest fighter (Morgan Charriere ($9,500)), but his odds are considerably longer.

Mich of that is due to the recent record of his opponent, Roosevelt Roberts ($6,600). Roberts is winless in his last four UFC fights (one loss was later overturned to a no-contest) across two stints for the UFC.

Klein also has an excellent style for DFS, with solid power (five knockdowns in nine UFC fights) and grappling (1.66 takedowns/15 minutes.) That gives him a path to a big score even without a quick finish — but he’s -175 to win inside the distance.

There are fighters with better price-considered upside on this card but none with the rock-solid floor of Klein. He’s an excellent cash game play, and I’ll have some exposure to him in GPPs as well.

The Upside Play

Joanderson Brito ($9,200)

One of those higher upside plays is Brito. He’s won five straight after dropping his UFC debut and hasn’t seen a third round in the process. He has a well-rounded resume of three knockouts and two submissions, with an aggressive striking style and underrated grappling.

He also has a tough test in William Gomis ($7,000). “Jaguar” is 3-0 so far in the UFC, but he counts a split and a majority decision among those three wins. The Frenchman is still a tough out though, with excellent striking defense (75%) and a highly technical style.

The bull case here is that Gomis’ striking chops force Brito into grappling, which provides bigger DFS scores. Especially if paired with a finish — which Brito is currently even money to pick up.

There’s some risk that Gomis turns this into a slow paced chess match, so I’m avoiding this for cash. Brito is a great GPP play though.

The Value Play

Nora Cornolle ($7,500)

Every once in a while, I go against the betting markets and plant my flag on a DFS play. That play this week for me is Cornolle.

The French muay thai fighter is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins coming as an underdog. She finds herself in that role against Jacqueline Cavalcanti, who’s 2-0 in the UFC but needed a split decision in her last fight.

Cavalcanti is also primarily a striker but without the pedigree of Cornolle, who was at one point the #2 female muay thai fighter in the world. She’s shown those skills in the UFC, picking up a knockout win with knees from the clinch in her last fight against previously unbeaten Melissa Mullins.

The twist here is that this fight is actually a rematch. The lone blemish on Cornolle’s 8-1 MMA record was a decision loss to Cavalcanti in Cornolle’s pro debut, which was the second fight for Cavalcanti. However, considering Cornolle’s lack of MMA training at the time, I’m willing to bank on her improving more in the time since then.

This fight is also +215 to end inside the distance, which gives Cornolle a strong floor if nothing else. That makes her a solid cash game option, but I also like her GPP upside since she’s the better finisher — and an upset by any means probably gets her in the optimal lineup.

Sean Zerillo is also on Cornolle, which makes me feel even better about taking my stand. We discussed why on this Week’s UFC Betting Preview:


The Contrarian Choice

Brendan Allen ($7,300)

I mentioned Allen in my Luck Ratings this week as an undervalued fighter based on his early week betting odds, which were as high as +200 on Monday. The market evidently agreed with me, with Allen’s line now between +165 and +175, depending on the sportsbook.

He’s been on an absolute tear over the last few years, winning seven straight fights with five submission victories. While his grappling is his clear strength — which we love for DFS — he’s also made improvements to his striking.

Allen knocked down former kickboxer Bruno Silva on the feet while holding his own with Chris Curtis in the standup portions of their fight. That’s going to be critical against Nassourdine Imavov ($8,900), with the adopted Frenchman known for his striking skills.

Imavov’s last three fights include a no-contest against Curtis, a majority decision win, and a knockout thanks to an obviously early stoppage against Jared Cannonier. That makes his record somewhat fortuitous, and he’s been taken down by fighters with far less grappling than Allen.

While the line movement towards Allen probably will boost this ownership somewhat, he’ll still be one of the less popular fighters on the big slate.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Ion Cutelaba ($8,300) vs. Ivan Erslan ($7,900)

The featured prelim between Ion Cutelaba and Ivan Erslan has -700 odds to end inside the distance, which is tied with the main event for the longest odds on the slate. Unlike the main event, the moneyline is also very close in this one, with Erslan opening as a slight underdog but now flipping to a -115 favorite.

It’s the promotional debut for Erslan, who most recently fought for Polish promotion KSW. His 14-3 pro record features ten knockout victories, with just one submission and three decisions. That’s pretty similar to UFC veteran Cutelaba, who’s picked up knockouts in four of his six UFC victories. He’s also been finished in seven of his nine UFC losses.

That makes him a fairly classic “glass cannon” with plenty of power but little defense. Cutelaba brings a bit more grappling upside — averaging over four takedowns per 15 minutes — which he could use to his advantage against the pure striker Erslan.

Erslan is the better value here, given that he’s a slight favorite while coming in cheaper. Cutelaba brings more upside thanks to his grappling though, so it’s a pretty close call between both fighters. I want to be overweight on them both for GPPs, which should be fairly easy on a 14-fight slate.

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After taking the week off last week, the UFC is back with their annual UFC Paris event. The 14-fight card is headlined by exciting lightweight contenders Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint-Denis, with surging middleweights Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov in the co-main event.

We have a special 12:00 p.m. E.T. start, so be sure to have your lineups locked in early for this one.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,000) vs. Renato Moicano ($7,200)

Benoit Saint-Denis was surging up the rankings before his last fight, a classic “passing of the torch” between the aging Dustin Poirier and the up-and-coming Saint-Denis. That one didn’t go as planned, with Saint-Denis gassing out after a dominant first round and getting finished in the second by Poirier.

He’ll be looking to get back on track against another fan-favorite fighter, Renato “Money” Moicano. Moicano is a ten-year UFC veteran who was 6-4 through his first ten fights before winning five of his last six and dropping some legendary interviews:

Moicano is an elite grappler with tremendous cardio and durability. He’s been hurt plenty of times in his recent run of success but typically finds a way to recover and win the fight down the stretch. That’s a stark contrast to BSD, an extremely powerful fighter whose aggressive style doesn’t hold up well when he gets extended.

That makes this a fairly binary fight, where the favored Saint-Denis is somewhat likely to pick up an early stoppage while Moicano can score a late finish. Either scenario likely pays off their respective salaries, so I’ll have one of the other in almost all of my GPP lineups.

The -700 odds to end inside the distance makes this a sub-optimal cash stack, as odds are the losing fighter finishes at a fairly low score. The argument for stacking it is that missing out on the probably big score from the winner would make it hard to cash. I’ll likely stack it myself, but it’s a close call.

The Easy Chalk

Ludovit Klein ($9,600)

Klein is the obligatory massive favorite on the card, opening as a -700 favorite but with current odds ranging from -950 to -1250. That makes him a fairly obvious top choice, as his salary is only $100 more than the next-priciest fighter (Morgan Charriere ($9,500)), but his odds are considerably longer.

Mich of that is due to the recent record of his opponent, Roosevelt Roberts ($6,600). Roberts is winless in his last four UFC fights (one loss was later overturned to a no-contest) across two stints for the UFC.

Klein also has an excellent style for DFS, with solid power (five knockdowns in nine UFC fights) and grappling (1.66 takedowns/15 minutes.) That gives him a path to a big score even without a quick finish — but he’s -175 to win inside the distance.

There are fighters with better price-considered upside on this card but none with the rock-solid floor of Klein. He’s an excellent cash game play, and I’ll have some exposure to him in GPPs as well.

The Upside Play

Joanderson Brito ($9,200)

One of those higher upside plays is Brito. He’s won five straight after dropping his UFC debut and hasn’t seen a third round in the process. He has a well-rounded resume of three knockouts and two submissions, with an aggressive striking style and underrated grappling.

He also has a tough test in William Gomis ($7,000). “Jaguar” is 3-0 so far in the UFC, but he counts a split and a majority decision among those three wins. The Frenchman is still a tough out though, with excellent striking defense (75%) and a highly technical style.

The bull case here is that Gomis’ striking chops force Brito into grappling, which provides bigger DFS scores. Especially if paired with a finish — which Brito is currently even money to pick up.

There’s some risk that Gomis turns this into a slow paced chess match, so I’m avoiding this for cash. Brito is a great GPP play though.

The Value Play

Nora Cornolle ($7,500)

Every once in a while, I go against the betting markets and plant my flag on a DFS play. That play this week for me is Cornolle.

The French muay thai fighter is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins coming as an underdog. She finds herself in that role against Jacqueline Cavalcanti, who’s 2-0 in the UFC but needed a split decision in her last fight.

Cavalcanti is also primarily a striker but without the pedigree of Cornolle, who was at one point the #2 female muay thai fighter in the world. She’s shown those skills in the UFC, picking up a knockout win with knees from the clinch in her last fight against previously unbeaten Melissa Mullins.

The twist here is that this fight is actually a rematch. The lone blemish on Cornolle’s 8-1 MMA record was a decision loss to Cavalcanti in Cornolle’s pro debut, which was the second fight for Cavalcanti. However, considering Cornolle’s lack of MMA training at the time, I’m willing to bank on her improving more in the time since then.

This fight is also +215 to end inside the distance, which gives Cornolle a strong floor if nothing else. That makes her a solid cash game option, but I also like her GPP upside since she’s the better finisher — and an upset by any means probably gets her in the optimal lineup.

Sean Zerillo is also on Cornolle, which makes me feel even better about taking my stand. We discussed why on this Week’s UFC Betting Preview:


The Contrarian Choice

Brendan Allen ($7,300)

I mentioned Allen in my Luck Ratings this week as an undervalued fighter based on his early week betting odds, which were as high as +200 on Monday. The market evidently agreed with me, with Allen’s line now between +165 and +175, depending on the sportsbook.

He’s been on an absolute tear over the last few years, winning seven straight fights with five submission victories. While his grappling is his clear strength — which we love for DFS — he’s also made improvements to his striking.

Allen knocked down former kickboxer Bruno Silva on the feet while holding his own with Chris Curtis in the standup portions of their fight. That’s going to be critical against Nassourdine Imavov ($8,900), with the adopted Frenchman known for his striking skills.

Imavov’s last three fights include a no-contest against Curtis, a majority decision win, and a knockout thanks to an obviously early stoppage against Jared Cannonier. That makes his record somewhat fortuitous, and he’s been taken down by fighters with far less grappling than Allen.

While the line movement towards Allen probably will boost this ownership somewhat, he’ll still be one of the less popular fighters on the big slate.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Ion Cutelaba ($8,300) vs. Ivan Erslan ($7,900)

The featured prelim between Ion Cutelaba and Ivan Erslan has -700 odds to end inside the distance, which is tied with the main event for the longest odds on the slate. Unlike the main event, the moneyline is also very close in this one, with Erslan opening as a slight underdog but now flipping to a -115 favorite.

It’s the promotional debut for Erslan, who most recently fought for Polish promotion KSW. His 14-3 pro record features ten knockout victories, with just one submission and three decisions. That’s pretty similar to UFC veteran Cutelaba, who’s picked up knockouts in four of his six UFC victories. He’s also been finished in seven of his nine UFC losses.

That makes him a fairly classic “glass cannon” with plenty of power but little defense. Cutelaba brings a bit more grappling upside — averaging over four takedowns per 15 minutes — which he could use to his advantage against the pure striker Erslan.

Erslan is the better value here, given that he’s a slight favorite while coming in cheaper. Cutelaba brings more upside thanks to his grappling though, so it’s a pretty close call between both fighters. I want to be overweight on them both for GPPs, which should be fairly easy on a 14-fight slate.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.