The UFC heads to Jacksonville for UFC on ABC 5. Featherweight prospect Ilia Topuria takes on former interim title challenger Josh Emmett in the main event, but it’s a stacked card with 13 total fights. The action beings at 11:30 AM Eastern Time, so be sure to get your lineups in early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Ilia Topuria ($9,500) vs. Josh Emmett ($6,700)
This weekend’s main event features the widest betting line on the card, with Topuria coming in at around -350. Topuria is undefeated with fights both at lightweight and featherweight and has finished all but one of his 13 pro wins, with eight submissions and four knockouts.
That makes him a difficult matchup for Emmett, who was submitted in his bid for the interim featherweight title by Yair Rodriguez — a fighter known more for his striking. Before that, Emmett won a highly controversial split decision over Calvin Kattar, so there’s a strong argument he should be 0-2 in his last two fights.
That’s not a great sign for a fighter approaching 40, especially when matched up with such an exciting prospect. However, Emmett does have more five-round experience, with Topuria only seeing one decision in his career. Topuria dropped the third round of that fight on all three scorecards, so there’s a question mark about his ability to fight deep into this one.
That’s enough of a question mark that I’ll be stacking both fighters in cash games, but it’s not enough for me to force Emmett into many GPP lineups. Go with the favorite here if you can afford him.
The Easy Chalk
Justin Tafa ($8,800)
Tafa is fighting ex-NFL player Austen Lane ($7,400) in the obligatory low-level heavyweight fight on the main card. While Lane should have a massive athleticism edge in this one, his MMA skills leave many things to be desired. We’ve seen it in the past with fighters like Greg Hardy (and even Brock Lesnar following his initial success); as soon as they can’t overwhelm opponents with athleticism, they fold.
That’s what betting markets expect here, with Tafa opening at -170 before being bet down around -200. The real appeal is the stoppage odds though: at -750, it’s highly unlikely that the judges have to get involved. There’s certainly a risk that Lane can blitz Tafa early, but it’s worth taking to save some salary when rostering Topuria, especially considering Tafa’s upside.
The Value Play
Maycee Barber ($7,300)
We came close to hitting the “floor play” trifecta this week. Barber is exceptionally cheap and fighting in the bout most likely to go the distance. Unfortunately, the line has moved slightly toward her opponent Amanda Ribas ($8,900) in this weekend’s co-main event.
Still, Barber is a strong option for saving some salary as a +165 or so underdog. She also has a bit more upside than we usually get from this type of fighter, thanks to a frenetic striking style that has seen her pick up three knockouts in her UFC career.
While it’s not the likeliest outcome, there’s a solid chance against Ribas, who has been knocked out in two of her three professional losses. When the likeliest outcome is a solid score en route to a decision loss, it’s worth taking the chance at a low price point.
The Upside Play
Bruno Silva ($7,100)
Not to be confused with the identically-named flyweight, middleweight Bruno Silva is a dangerous striker who has recorded knockouts in all four of his UFC wins. Three of those were good for over 100 points on DraftKings, giving him a high ceiling relative to his price point.
His floor is comparably low, though, as he takes on Brendan Allen ($9,100) in a striker versus grappler matchup. While both men are competent in each other’s discipline, each has a fairly significant edge in their respective areas. Both of Allen’s UFC losses came via knockout.
The salaries and moneyline odds here point to Allen’s grappling being likelier to win out here, making Silva far too thin for cash games. He’s an interesting GPP-flier, though, as a win probably comes with one of the top scores on the slate.
The Contrarian Choice
Jack Jenkins ($7,600)
I was genuinely surprised by the betting line on this fight, which opened with Jenkins around +140 against Jamall Emmers ($8,600). I expected it to shift Jenkins’ way, but the opposite has happened: Jenkins is around +175 at the time of writing.
I’m pretty high on Jenkins as a prospect. He’s a short, stocky featherweight from Australia with a background as a professional rugby player, just like current UFC champion Alexander Volkanovski. Also like Volkanovski — an occasional training partner for Jenkins — he has an excellent motor. His output and cardio are both among the division’s best.
The comparisons don’t stop there, with Jenkins and Volk both former amateur wrestlers. Jenkins has some of the best wrestling transitions I’ve seen recently, with lightning-quick level changes disguised by feints and strikes. He’s also solid on the feet, mixing in shots to the head and body behind devastating calf kicks.
That makes him a tough matchup for Emmers. Emmers was able to escape with a win but looked noticeably less explosive in his last UFC fight. That was his first fight back following a brutal heel hook loss that shredded his knee, and it’s possible his explosiveness never returns.
Dealing with the quickness and footwork of Jenkins is a challenging task for a healthy fighter, much less one who’s been slowed by a knee injury. I broke this one down from a betting standpoint, but I’m equally high on Jenkins for DFS.
The Swing Fight
Mateusz Rebecki ($8,400) vs. Loik Radzhabov ($7,800)
This is another bout I broke down from a betting standpoint this week and came to a very DFS-friendly conclusion. While both fighters won their UFC debut by decision, it wasn’t for lack of trying on either man’s part. A stoppage is far more likely here than betting markets would currently indicate, making it an excellent GPP target.
Both men throw everything with ill intentions, with nary a job between them in their debuts. That style leads to some defensive deficiencies, with Radzhabov getting dropped en route to his decision win. The other issue with throwing so hard is the cardio: regardless of how well-conditioned you are, keeping that pace over 15 minutes is near-impossible.
They were both able to cover those holes with their wrestling, taking down their opponents when they needed a breather or to clear the cobwebs. That will likely be much more difficult here, as neither has a huge wrestling edge. Radzhabov is probably better in that regard, but Rebecki is the more talented fighter when it gets to the mat.
If they’re forced to stand and bang, somebody will fall sooner rather than later. I’m leaning toward the favored Rebecki but will also mix in some Radzhabov lineups. Even if my thesis is incorrect and this one turns into a grappling match, it’s still an attractive DFS fight for the takedown upside. They’ve combined for more than 15 takedowns per 15 minutes in their UFC/DWCS careers.
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