We have a rare title fight on a free card as the UFC celebrates Mexican Independence Day at UFC Noche. Mexican-born champion Alexa Grasso looks to prove her shocking title upset of Valentina Shevchenko wasn’t a fluke at the end of the 11-fight card.
It all goes down at 7:00 p.m. ET from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Valentina Shevchenko ($8,500) vs. Alexa Grasso ($7,700)
Alexa Grasso shocked the world when these two first met in March. She snapped Shevchenko’s nine-fight winning streak and perfect flyweight record with a fourth-round submission win to become the new flyweight champion.
It’s tempting to write that win off as a fluke, as Grasso perfectly timed a spinning kick from Shevchenko and jumped on her back. However, there’s more to the story. Grasso easily won the first round of that fight, and while losing rounds two and three, she showed impressive defensive grappling by getting back to her feet when taken down by Shevchenko.
Furthermore, we’d already seen Shevchenko show signs of slowing down prior to fighting Grasso. Shevchenko probably should’ve lost her belt in the prior fight, a split-decision win over Taila Santos. At 35 years old, we may have seen the last of Shevchenko as a UFC champion — at least at flyweight.
Grasso is a superior boxer more voluminous striker, averaging nearly two additional significant strikes per minute over Shevchenko. She’s also an underrated grappler, taking fights to the ground herself when need be. More importantly, she’s extremely tough to hold down, surrendering very little control time when she’s taken down.
On the Shevchenko side, Grasso’s ability to get back up drastically raises her ceiling, as Shevchenko could rack up plenty of takedowns here. She was able to take Grasso down nearly at will, and having multiple opportunities to do so per round is great for DFS. Shevchenko is also the more powerful striker, with Grasso never landing a knockdown in the UFC.
That creates a bit of a floor/ceiling dichotomy here, where I think Grasso wins this more often than the odds imply, but Shevchenko has the potential for bigger scores.
I’ll be roughly even on them in GPPs while stacking them both in cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Raul Rosas Jr. ($9,600)
The 18-year-old Rosas suffered a setback in his last fight, dropping a mostly one-sided decision to fellow prospect Christian Rodriguez. Still, Rosas had a great opening round, with three takedowns and over four minutes of control time.
Then he hit a wall, with the more experienced Rodriguez able to manage his cardio better. This is a frequent pitfall for phenoms like Rosas. They’re so used to finishing opponents early and easily that they don’t adapt well to being pushed.
Fortunately for Rosas, he’s being given a much easier opponent this time out in Terrance Mitchell ($6,600). Mitchell is 0-1 in the UFC after dropping his debut to another uber-prospect Cameron Saaiman in the first round. It was especially notable that the striking-focused Saaiman largely dominated on the ground. That’s a great sign for the grappling-based game of Rosas.
The point being, the UFC knew what they were doing with this matchup. UFC Noche is a celebration of the company’s Mexican fighters, and they’re intending this as a showcase for Rosas. He’s -200 to end things in the first round and a couple post an even higher score if it lasts longer, thanks to more opportunities for takedowns.
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The Upside Plays
Roman Kopylov ($9,100)
I’ve been super impressed by Kopylov in recent fights. The Russian dropped his first two UFC bouts but, over the last year, has picked up three straight wins, all by knockout.
He has an excellent style for DFS, with a solid mix of power and volume. Crucially, the sambo-based fighter has excellent takedown defense. He’s defended 90% of his opponents’ attempts in the UFC, which should be a big factor against Josh Fremd ($7,100).
Fremd is a much slower and less technical striker than Kopylov, whose clearest paths to victory are landing a big strike or controlling Kopylov on the ground. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kopylov wrestle here either, as Fremd was taken down eight times in his UFC debut.
Mostly though, I’m trusting the odds on this one. Kopylov is -135 to end this one inside the distance, and his volume striking gives him a path to a ceiling score even in a decision. There are not really any clear smash plays at the top this week outside of Rosas, but Kopylov is close.
The Value Play
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($8,000)
I’m going a tiny bit off the board here, as the line has moved slightly away from Jasudavicius since salaries were released on Monday. Still, she’s a roughly +100 favorite throughout the industry, with some books having this closer to a pick ’em.
Jasudavicius is 4-1 in the UFC, with her only loss coming to the fast-rising Natalia Silva. She’s taking on another would-be flyweight contender in Tracy Cortez ($8,200), who’s a perfect 4-0 in the UFC.
However, there’s a big gulf in the level of competition the women face. Jasudavicius put together an extremely impressive performance against Miranda Maverick her last time out, stuffing all three of Maverick’s takedown attempts.
Cortez’s opponents have a combined UFC record of 9-12, with two of them since released from the promotion. She’s also been out of action for the last 15 months, while Jasudavicius has two wins in that time frame.
Jasudavicius is more of a cash game play for me, as neither woman has ever finished a UFC fight. That gives her a very safe floor, though I have some fringe interest in GPPs where I expect her to be under-owned by the field.
The Contrarian Choice
Daniel Lacerda ($7,500)
I’m not anticipating much public interest in Lacerda, who’s getting one final shot after starting his UFC career 0-4, with all four losses coming as stoppages.
However, he’s also shown himself to be much better than that record indicates. In the first round of his last fight, he scored two knockdowns and a takedown against CJ Vergara but gassed himself out hunting for the finish and was stopped in the second round. Similarly, he scored a knockdown of Victor Altamirano in the previous fight before getting put out himself.
The point is, he’s been dangerously close to multiple first-round finishes. This time, he’s taking on Edgar Chairez ($8,700), who is 0-1 in the UFC and also a former Contender Series loser. Chairez has been dominated on the ground in both of those bouts.
I like that outlook for Lacerda, who should have a big edge in the submission game. Even if he’s unable to get things to the mat, that also gives him a strikers chance at picking up a knockdown in a wild brawl — which is enough for me at his price tag.
I’m staying far away from this one in cash games as his floor is effectively 0, but he’s my favorite cheap GPP play of the slate.
Two KDs and a TD before losing to CJ last fight, and KD in the fight before that too.
The Swing Fights
Jack Della Maddalena ($8,300) vs. Kevin Holland ($7,900)
The UFC Noche co-main event features two exciting welterweights, both of whom just fought in July. Kevin Holland picked up a first-round submission win, while Jack Della Maddalena grinded out a tough decision over a last-minute opponent.
There’s more to the story for Maddalena, though. His last fight was pushed back a week after his original opponent dropped off a pay-per-view card, then he shuffled through a pair of opponents before eventually finding one. That’s a tough situation to deal with, especially with multiple weight cuts in back-to-back weeks.
Maddalena has also found success against anthropomorphically similar opponents. He picked up a knockout over Randy Brown, the UFC’s tallest welterweight — a claim he shares with Kevin Holland.
Holland’s length is a big issue for some of his opponents, but it’s an encouraging sign for Maddalena that he’s succeeded in similar spots in the past. Holland is probably the better grappler here. However, he’s notorious for refusing to use his grappling skills even when he should.
If Holland takes this one to the ground, he should have a significant edge and post a big score. On the other hand, Maddalena has knocked out four of his five UFC opponents in the first round.
Either way, I’m anticipating the winner here to end up in the optimal lineup. Personally, I’ll be overweight on Maddalena, but I can see the case either way.
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