UFC Nashville features a makeshift main event between Bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font. There’s been plenty of rebookings and cancellations, but we’ve settled on a 12-fight card that starts at 6:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Cory Sandhagen ($9,300) vs. Rob Font ($6,900)
Sandhagen was originally slated to fight the surging Umar Nurmagomedov as the headliner for this event before an injury to Nurmagomedov forced him off the card. In his stead steps Rob Font, the UFC’s seventh-ranked bantamweight contender.
This wasn’t a purely short-notice engagement for Font, though, as he was previously booked for UFC 292 just two weeks from now. However, it’s notable that he had a three-round fight scheduled, while this upgrade to the main event slot comes with the customary five-round schedule.
This is especially relevant here, given the output rates of both fighters. Sandhagen lands nearly six significant strikes per minute, while Font is at nearly 6.5. Both land roughly one takedown per 15 minutes, but I expect this to be mostly a standup affair unless Font attempts to use some ground control as a form of active rest.
Sandhagen is obviously jumping off the page in our models as a -350 or so favorite whose output tends to lead to some big scores. Font is likely to fade down the stretch here, which would allow Sandhagen to rack up the points late.
However, I like Fon’t combination of floor and ceiling as well. He has big power — with two first-round finishes among his last three wins — and should be able to score reasonably well even in a late loss. That makes this a must for cash game stacking, and I’ll be mixing in some of each fighter in GPPs.
The Easy Chalk
Tatiana Suarez ($9,500)
Suarez is the other heavy favorite on this card, with her odds swelling to -375 on DraftKings for her co-main event fight against Jessica Andrade ($6,700). Suarez appeared to be in top form in her last fight, a quick submission win that followed more than three years of inactivity.
She’s a dominant grappler who’s averaged more than six takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career, which is obviously appealing from a DFS standpoint. Especially against Andrade, who does her best work on the feet and was easily taken down and submitted by Erin Blanchfield.
This fight has -280 inside-the-distance odds, which is a rarity for the strawweight class. That speaks to her finishing upside, which completes the set of the things we look for in terms of ceiling — takedowns and stopping power.
Of course, Andrade is a former champion and not generally an easy out, so it’s reasonable to question whether Suarez pays off her massive salary. Especially with slightly cheaper fighters like Jake Hadley ($8,800) and Billy Quarantillo ($8,900) (among others) projecting similarly.
I won’t be going out of my way to fit Suarez in any lineups, but she’s a fairly safe choice and pairs well from a salary standpoint with lineups that use Font over Sandhagen.
The Value Plays
Raoni Barcelos ($7,200)
Barcelos caught my eye as a cheap option this week because his fight is the only one on the slate with plus-money odds to end inside the distance. That gives him the best floor of any underdog outside of the main event, but he’s also a live dog with a few paths towards upside.
Barcelos is an excellent all-around grappler, with several jiu-jitsu world titles and experience competing for the Brazilian national wrestling team. That’s a relatively unique skill set, as many of the high-level jiu-jitsu players in MMA lack wrestling ability and takedowns.
While he doesn’t boast a huge takedown per 15-minute stat, that’s partially due to his ability to stop his opponents from getting back up. He racked up over seven minutes of control time on two takedowns against Trevin Jones in his last win, with similar stat lines throughout his career.
He’s an underdog to Kyler Phillips ($9,000) due to the eight-year age gap and speed discrepancy both working against him. He’s a tough matchup for Phillips, though, as all of Phillips’ UFC wins involved him scoring takedowns of his own.
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The Upside Play
Diego Lopes ($8,300)
Lopes had an auspicious UFC debut despite ultimately losing the fight. He took the fight on a few days notice against top-10 featherweight Mosvar Evloev but nearly handed Evloev his first loss on multiple occasions. Lopes showed off his striking by stunning Evloev and also was inches away from a fight-ending arm bar.
Lopes predictably faded as the fight went on but still raised his stock considerably with the loss. Now he has a much easier matchup with Gavin Tucker ($7,900). Lopes is a -170 or so favorite but brings a ton of finishing upside. He has a similar fighting style as Charles Oliverira and past Brazilian greats, with an aggressive striking style and world-class jiu-jitsu.
He serves as the jiu-jitsu coach for Women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso among others and has competed in high-level jiu-jitsu competitions in the past. Lopes should have a massive edge on Tucker if it hits the ground, as well as finishing upside on the feet. For just $8,300, that’s quite the bargain.
I like Lopes for all contest types on Saturday. He’s underpriced for his odds which is important for cash games, with his finishing ability relevant for GPPs.
The Contrarian Choice
Dennis Buzukja ($7,500)
I don’t know a ton about Buzukja other than that he trains out of the highly respected Serra-Longo camp and, based on his Contender Series bouts, appears to be a strong grappler. That’s enough information against Sean Woodson ($9,600), a solid kickboxer who’s struggled on the ground in past fights.
More importantly, I was thoroughly sold on Buzukja by Sean Zerillo on our UFC Betting Preview Podcast, where he laid out the case for Buzukja:
The Swing Fight
Jeremiah Wells ($8,500) vs. Carlston Harris ($7,700)
With no $8,200 vs. $8,000 fight on the slate, this is one of the closer contests by salary. It’s also the fight likeliest to end inside the distance besides the co-main event, making it an obvious DFS target.
Wells and Harris are a combined 7-1 in the UFC, with five of those wins coming inside the distance. They both scored over 100 points in their respective decision wins as well. Both men have wild striking styles that are good for offense but poor for defense. They also boast solid submission credentials, so there are plenty of ways for this to end early.
Harris is the better play by the odds, with the mine moving considerably his way throughout the week. However, I’m super high on the Wells side myself. I believe he’s the far better grappler in a fight where the striking exchanges should be roughly a coin flip.
Read more of my technical analysis of the fight here, but my money — both betting and in DFS exposure — is on Wells. Still, Harris is a strong choice as well, given Wells’ defensive vulnerabilities.
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