Despite it being a free card, we have a PPV feel at UFC Mexico, with two five-round fights that could both be for No. 1 contender status. The main event features recent title challengers Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval in a rematch, while a second rematch between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega is the five-round co-main event. It all goes down at 7:00 p.m. ET from Mexico City on Saturday.
With just 11 other fights, building unique lineups will be critical for GPPs this week, so we’ll go over all the options as we look for the best plays on the card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Brandon Moreno ($8,800) vs. Brandon Royval ($7,400)
Were this fight booked for three rounds, it probably wouldn’t draw much DFS attention. The last two men to (unsuccessfully) challenge for the flyweight crown square off in the main event at UFC Mexico in a five-round rematch.
Their last fight ended awkwardly (which will be a theme this weekend) with a Royval shoulder injury that preceded Moreno’s tetralogy for the flyweight title with Deiveson Figueiredo. He then lost the title to Alexandre Pantoja — who recently defended it against Royval.
Moreno is a deserving favorite here, with a much closer result against Pantoja (split decision) than Royval had, plus the benefit of a friendly crowd at home in Mexico. Still, he doesn’t typically put up scores that justify his current price tag, with his only 100-point score since 2017 due to the Royval shoulder injury.
On the other hand, Royval has finished four of five UFC victories, and doesn’t need as big of a score a this price tag. It’s also worth noting that both men topped 90 DraftKings points in their respective losses to Pantoja, giving this one sneaky stack appeal for GPPs.
That stack is a must for cash, of course. Beyond that, I’ll be slightly heavier on the underdog but keep some exposure to Moreno as well.
Co-Main Event
Yair Rodriguez ($8,500) vs. Brian Ortega ($7,700)
The second of three rebooked fights at UFC Mexico is the co-main event. The original pairing between these two was a five-round main event, so the UFC decided to stick with the plan and make the rematch a five-rounder as well.
That first fight was a competitive matchup that ended prematurely when Ortega suffered a shoulder injury while pulling out of a Rodriguez armbar. There’s a reasonable debate about whether Rodriguez’s attack caused the injury or if it were a fluke, but either way, it was a less-than-definitive finish.
Rodriguez is now the favorite after being the underdog the first time around. Regardless of what caused the ending of the first matchup, that’s a reasonable reaction to Ortega missing 18 months and undergoing shoulder surgery since that matchup.
I broke down this fight in full earlier in the week, including the stylistic matchup at play. The DFS-relevant takeaway is that Rodriguez is a deserving favorite, but Ortega has more finishing upside. Rodriguez is a high-floor play thanks to his striking volume (and Ortega’s lack of defense), but is unlikely to pay off his salary in tournaments. Conversely, Ortega has the finishing upside to have a shot at the optimal but a near-zero floor, especially when factoring in the injury.
Stacking this fight isn’t a priority for cash games, but I have some interest in Rodriguez, while I’ll mix in a few Ortega lineups in GPPs.
The Easy Chalk
Muhammad Naimov ($9,100)
Naimov checks all the boxes here, but the biggest factor is the absurd line movement in his favor. After opening around -300, he’s now tied for the best odds on the card at -575. Of course, DFS salaries are static, so he’s around $400, which is too cheap on DraftKings.
On top of that, he’s about -140 to win the fight inside the distance, considerably better than Yazmin Jauregi ($9,500), the fighter with whom he’s tied for the best moneyline odds. “Hillman” has been impressive in his two UFC wins thus far, picking up victories over solid competition in Jamie Mullarkey and Nathaniel Wood.
Now he gets an easier matchup with Erik Silva ($7,100), who’s 0-1 in the UFC with a third-round submission loss. Silva is probably better than that record indicates, but the line movement is happening for a reason.
Naimov is a lock for cash games and nearly a GPP lock as well, thanks to his solid odds of ending this one early.
The Upside Play
Manuel Torres ($8,300)
Torres is another fighter who’s seen the line shift heavily in his favor — as I predicted in my Luck Ratings this week. After opening at -135, he’s now close to -200, depending on the book. From an implied probability standpoint, that’s just as big of a move as Naimov’s, making him similarly undervalued.
Also, like Naimov, he’s favored to end this one inside the distance at -150, giving him huge upside relative to his price tag. He’ll likely be nearly as popular, too, so he needed to be mentioned in this article.
“El Loco” has finished all three of his UFC/DWCS fights in the first round, all via knockout. The only losses on his record both came from leglocks, which isn’t much of a concern against Chris Duncan ($7,900). Duncan’s only career submission win was a guillotine in his debut.
It’s an excellent matchup for Torres, with the added benefit of the hometown boost in Mexico. He’s an extremely strong play in all contest types.
The Value Plays
Luis Rodriguez ($8,000)
While he hasn’t seen the big line movement of the previous fighters mentioned, Luis Rodriguez has flipped to being a favorite against Denys Bondar ($8,200). I’d be on him even without the line movement, though, as it’s a solid matchup against Bondar.
The UFC didn’t bring in the Ukranian to beat Rodriguez in front of a hometown crowd. Rodriguez is already 15-2 in his pro career at just 24 years old, with 11 finishes and both losses going to the scorecards. Bondar is 0-2 in the UFC, with neither fight going the distance.
The level of competition for Rodriguez is somewhat questionable, but he has enough going for him to mitigate that risk. I prefer Rodriguez for GPPs, but this fight is one of just three favored to see the judges, which gives him some cash game safety as well. Particularly, if he’s able to get some home cookin’ from the judges.
The Contrarian Choice
Victor Altamirano ($7,000)
Both Sean Zerillo and I mentioned Altamirano as our favorite underdog on our UFC Betting Preview Podcast this week.
Altamirano is taking on Felipe dos Santos ($9,200) on the undercard, with the line moving slightly to dos Santos throughout the week. Their fight has the best odds to see the judges on the card based on betting lines — which is a big factor in this play.
Altamirano is the hometown fighter taking on the Brazilian dos Santos, which should give him a considerable edge with the judges should they be needed. The fans will be reacting favorably to anything landed from Altamirano, which has a subconscious effect on the officials.
Beyond that, I haven’t seen enough from dos Santos to justify his heavy favoritism. He’s 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Manel Kape, and while there’s no shame in that, his pre-UFC level of competition is highly suspect. On the other hand, Altamirano is 2-2 in the UFC, with one of his losses via split decision.
The high odds of going to the judges aren’t indicative of a massive ceiling for Altamirano, but any win should be enough at his price point. He’s a solid play in both cash games and GPPs.
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The Swing Fight
Edgar Chairez ($9,300) vs. Daniel Lacerda da Silva ($6,900)
A lopsided salary like this doesn’t typically qualify for the “swing fight” spot in this column, but I believe this one has some merits. First, the market is heavily pointing us to an early finish. The fight is -650 to end inside the distance and -125 to end inside the first round.
That means whoever wins is highly likely to post an optimal-worthy score, even at Chairez’s higher salary. It also means a high-variance fight is likely — which can favor the underdog.
For some background, this is a rebooking of a fight that ended prematurely last September at “Noche UFC.” Chairez had da Silva in a choke, which led to the ref stepping in and stopping the fight, thinking da Silva was unconscious. He absolutely wasn’t, and his immediate protestation led to the fight being ruled a no contest.
While it’s easy to write that off as a fight Cahirez was about to win, it’s not that simple. The underdog had just landed a takedown prior to the submission attempt, and the choke wasn’t actually in, as far as I could tell.
While da Silva’s 0-4 (official) UFC record is concerning, he’s been better than that number suggests. He scored a total of three knockdowns in his two bouts prior to fighting Chairez and has typically been ahead in his fights before making a fatal mistake. Additionally, Cahirez is also (officially) winless in the Octagon, at 0-2, including his loss on the Contender Series.
This line and these salaries should be closer than they are, so I’ll be very overweight on da Silva. Still, I want Chairez in any lineup without da Silva, as somebody likely gets a big score here.
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