The UFC is taking one of their semi-annual trips to Mexico City this weekend, with homegrown former champion Brandon Moreno taking on former title challenger Steve Erceg in the main event. The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Brandon Moreno ($8,600) vs. Steve Erceg ($7,600)
Counting his title fight loss to Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Moreno is 2-2 over his last four fights. His wins include a knockout to settle the score against Deiveson Figueiredo, a dominant decision over Amir Albazi, and two razor-close split decision losses.
At his worst, he’s fighting championship-level fighters to close decisions while rolling through everybody else. Now he’s taking on another former title challenger in Australia’s Steve Erceg.
Erceg earned his title shot after just three wins in the UFC and was tied with Pantoja heading into the final round of their fight. Then, he followed up that performance with a knockout loss in his next outing.
That makes it relatively hard to assess Erceg’s true level. He easily steamrolled the lower half of the flyweight division but has come up short against both top-five fighters he’s been matched with so far.
The market thinks that’s likely to continue, with Moreno opening as a -198 favorite but now north of -250. I agree and will be much heavier on the champion for GPPs this weekend.
However, this is an obvious fight to stack in cash games. It’s roughly -200 to go all 25 minutes, and both fighters score well on a per-minute basis. I’ll be excited to face off against any lineups without both fighters in this main event.
The Easy Chalk
Jamaal Emmers ($9,100)
There are some heavy favorites this week, and one could make a case for any of the fighters in the $9K range to be the best play on the board.
Jamaal Emmers stands out from a market-based standpoint, though. His odds have moved from -325 to -485 since salaries dropped, and he’s one of just two fighters on the card favored to win inside the distance. The other is Atabek Gautier ($9,600), who is $500 more expensive but comes with slightly worse moneyline odds.
That makes Emmers a somewhat obvious choice for his fight against Gabriel Miranda ($7,100), who has been knocked out twice in his last three fights. Miranda is a submission specialist, which makes this a bit scary for Emmers, but the favorite should have the wherewithal to avoid the ground game here.
He leads our projections for the highest median outside of the five-round fight this week.
The Upside Play
Lupita Godinez ($8,800)
Nearly all of the top options make sense as an upside choice this week, but I’m going with a somewhat sneaky option in Godinez.
“Loopy” should see fairly low ownership this week, largely thanks to her relatively poor odds of finishing the fight. However, finishes are just half of the upside equation. The other primary way to post big scores is through takedowns, and Godinez provides plenty of those.
She averages just under three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, but those numbers have been deflated by her recent matchups. Each of her last three opponents were elite submission grapplers, and Godinez landed just two of the four takedowns she attempted across those matchups.
This time, she’s taking on Julia Polastri ($7,400), who’s a huge step down in competition. Polastri has been taken down five times in her four UFC/Contender Series bouts and hasn’t faced anyone with Godinez’s wrestling prowess.
Godinez has landed at least 5 takedowns four times in the UFC and should come close to that number unless she finishes the fight early. Either way, that should be enough for an elite score at her price tag.
There’s a similar case to be made for Raul Rosas ($9,200), but when factoring in price and ownership, I prefer Godinez.
The Value Plays
Austin Hubbard ($7,500)
I’m not exactly excited to click Hubbard’s name, but he checks all the boxes as a floor play.
The TUF 31 vet is 1-2 since returning to the UFC proper, losing by submission on the Ultimate Finale and more recently by split decision against Alexander Hernandez. He’s taking on 2023 Contender Series winner MarQuel Mederos ($8,700).
Mederos is a pure striker, and Hubbard has never been knocked out but has been submitted fairly regularly throughout his career. Hubbard also averages about half a takedown per round in his UFC career and has a clear grappling edge here.
Given that this fight’s odds to end inside the distance are among the longest on the slate, and considering the line movement in Hubbard’s direction, he’s at a minimum a solid floor play for cash games. He has some potential upside if he can land takedowns, but at worst, he should be able to pile up significant strikes over 15 minutes.
The Contrarian Choice
Jose Medina ($6,600)
The case for Medina is largely similar to Hubbard’s, except his slate-low salary means the score we need him to get is considerably lower.
Medina opened as a huge underdog but has taken considerable line movement throughout the week. He’s taking on a UFC debutant in Atabek Gautier ($9,600), who’s a considerably better striker (and athlete) but is still fairly raw, especially in the grappling department.
Before landing a second-round knockout on the Contender Series, Gautier was taken down and controlled for more than four minutes during the first round of his fight. Medina hasn’t shown much grappling ability in his two UFC/DWCS appearances so far, but both matchups came against grappling specialists.
Medina has competed in submission grappling, though, and his regional tape showed a primarily grappling-focused attack. I’m not sure he’ll be able to execute that plan against the far superior athlete, but a clear path to an upset is enough for me to take a swing at his price tag.
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The Swing Fight
Manuel Torres ($8,200) vs. Drew Dober ($8,000)
The swing fight this week is an extremely obvious choice. The co-main event between Drew Dober and Manuel Torres is not only the $8,200/$8,000 fight but also has the best inside-the-distance odds by a country mile on the slate.
They’ve combined to average over four knockdowns per 15 minutes in their UFC careers. Just one of their last 11 fights has seen the judges, and both are equally capable of taking damage as they are of dishing it out.
With stoppage odds of -900 and reasonable salaries for both men, you pretty much have to have exposure to this fight in every GPP lineup. I’ll be leaning more heavily towards the slight underdog. Torres is seven years younger and has taken far less damage in his career, while I worry about Dober’s durability given all the wars he’s been in.
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