The UFC heads to Macau this week for a card full of Asian prospects featuring the final rounds of the “Road to the UFC” tournament, with the winners getting UFC contracts.
We also have a main event between former champions Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo, headlining the 13-fight card. We’ve got a special 3:00 a.m. ET start time owing to the time zone shift in Macau, so be sure to get your lineups situated Friday night.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Petr Yan ($9,000) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo ($7,200)
The main event in Macau features former bantamweight champion Petr Yan against former flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo, who left his former division after his tetralogy against Brandon Moreno.
Both men are hoping to work their way back into the title picture, with Figueiredo off to a 3-0 start in his new division. Yan is 1-2 since losing his title to Aljamain Sterling, including a controversial split decision against Sean O’Malley and a loss to current champion Merab Dvalishvili.
For that reason, a Figueiredo win would be better for the UFC, since he hasn’t fought most of the current bantamweight contenders. The markets don’t see that as very likely, though. Yan is bigger, five years younger, and the better technical striker and wrestler.
The power edge probably goes to Figueiredo, who became the first man to drop Marlon Vera in his most recent fight. That’s notable given Vera’s 24 UFC fights.
I worry about Figueiredo’s cardio a bit here, as he’s yet to go five rounds at 135. On the one hand, a less challenging weight cut should help his cardio, but on the other, he’ll also be bigger and heavier than he was at 125 lbs.
For that reason, I see this fight either going to Figueiredo early or Yan late. Either way, the winner should have an easy time finding the optimal, since both men have solid output levels in both striking and grappling. I’ll have one of the two in all my GPP lineups, and this is a pretty obvious stack for cash games considering their per-minute output.
The Easy Chalk
Mingyang Zhang ($9,100)
“The Mountain Tiger” has 17 wins as a professional fighter, and none of those have involved a second round. That includes his bout in the Road to the UFC tournament in 2023, as well as his UFC debut.
He’s a heavy hitter who starts fast, swinging for the fences right out of the gate. The market seems fairly confident in his ability to pick up another early win against Ozzy Diaz ($7,100), who was knocked out on the Contender Series by Joe Pyfer in 2022.
Zhang’s moneyline has moved to -350 this week, and he’s -125 to pick up a win in the first round. He probably needs a first-round stoppage at his price point to be in the optimal given his lack of grappling, but that’s priced as the likeliest outcome.
With that said, I’m also interested in Diaz as a salary saver. Zhang has lost every fight he’s been in that makes it past the first round, so if Diaz can survive the early storm, he’ll be live to pull off the upset. I’ll have more Zhang than Diaz, but I want to be overweight on the underdog here too.
The Upside Play
Lone’er Kavanagh ($9,400)
My favorite prospect from this season of the Contender Series was Lone’er Kavanagh. A dangerous counterstriker with a traditional martial arts background, he also mixes in plenty of takedowns, which we always appreciate for DFS.
He pulled off a quick win on the Contender Series and didn’t get to show off his grappling, but it gives him an ability to put up a big score even if this fight gets extended. That’s an important detail against Jose Ochoa ($6,800), since this fight is only slightly favored to end inside the distance.
From what little tape there is on Ochoa, he’s an aggressive striker who likes to come forward. That makes this a solid matchup for Kavanagh, similar to the one he drew on the Contender Series. Which makes sense, as the UFC would likely find him a favorable matchup — with both Chinese and British heritage, he helps the UFC with their promotional inroads in those markets.
The extra salary and worse stoppage odds relative to Zhang should mean much lower ownership for Kavanagh. I like him as a potential pivot for that reason, though of course it’s possible to find the salary to play them together.
The Value Play
Kiru Sahota ($7,800)
With this event featuring the Road to UFC tournament’s final round, there’s a lot of fighters without much name recognition or UFC tape on the event. Among those is Sahota, who takes on Dong Hoon Choi ($8,400) in the men’s flyweight final. Sahota opened as an underdog as evident in his salary, but has since moved to a -115 favorite on DraftKings following weigh ins on Thursday night.
That makes him a clear value piece for cash games. He brings a solid floor as well, with this fight -200 to go the full 15 minutes. Sahota is a 5’10” flyweight, whose opponents (understandably) often try to force him into grappling matches. He was taken down nine times in the first round of the tournament, but was able to get back to his feet often enough to still win a split decision. The matchup with Choi is a solid one given his skill set.
Choi is also a striker, but will have to deal with an extreme height and reach disadvantage. With this event in the larger UFC PPV cage, that’s a considerable hurdle to climb. Ultimately, I’m trusting the betting markets here though, and rostering a slight favorite at an underdog price.
The Contrarian Choice
Nikolas Motta ($7,500)
I’ve been very impressed by the improvements made by Motta. After starting his UFC run 1-2-1 (with a no-contest that deserved to be a loss), he switched up his training to Xtreme Couture and pulled off a first-round knockout as an underdog in his last fight.
He’s an underdog again this week against Maheshate ($8,700), who snapped a two-fight losing streak with a probably undeserved split decision win in April.
Both Motta and Maheshate are strikers without much regard for defense. They both have negative striking differentials of nearly -2.0 and a roughly even mix of knockdowns given and received. This fight could very well be a matter of who lands or falls first.
In high-variance situations like that, it makes sense to lean towards the underdog since we’re basically just flipping a very violent coin to determine the winner. For that reason, I’ll be on Motta for GPPs — though this is a fight I’m avoiding for cash games.
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The Swing Fight
Su Young You ($8,300) vs. Balgyn Jieleyisi ($7,900)
The bantamweight finals of the Road to the UFC tournament feature South Korea’s You taking on Jieleyisi from China. This fight isn’t particularly likely to end inside the distance, which makes it an atypical choice for the swing fight section — but there’s plenty of upside here.
Across their four combined RUFC tournament bouts, You and Jieleyisi have combined for 17 takedowns, with grappling being the “Plan A” for both fighters. It’s hard to predict which of the pair will be able to land takedowns in this matchup. Given the grappling credentials of both men, there’s also a strong chance that both are able to scramble back to their feet, providing more opportunities for their opponents to score takedowns.
On top of that, we also have the general idea that RUFC fighters will be somewhat underowned relative to their abilities/projection. That makes me want to prioritize this fight in general, without taking a strong stance on either side.
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