UFC

UFC Louisville DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Imavov vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is staying on the road this weekend with UFC Louisville from the KFC Yum! Center — the granddaddy of them all — in Kentucky. Two top-10 middleweights are meeting in the main event, with former title contender Jared Cannonier taking on rising prospect Nassourdine Imavov.

It’s a big slate, with 14 fights starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

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Main Event

Nassourdine Imavov ($8,600) vs. Jared Cannonier ($7,600)

I don’t have especially strong feelings about this main event — at least relative to the DFS prices — which seem roughly correct on both sides. The 28-year-old Imavov is 5-2 in the UFC, with a majority decision loss in his debut and a later short-notice loss to Sean Strickland.

Outside of those matches, he’s been extremely solid, with two knockouts in his five wins and a high-volume striking style. He should have a technical striking edge over Canonier as the better defensive fighter.

Cannonier is the more powerful striker. A former heavyweight and light heavyweight, his power has translated to the lighter division with four knockouts in seven wins at 185. His two losses in the division are to former champions Robert Whitaker and Israel Adesanya, and he holds a (controversial) split decision win against another former champ in Strickland.

However, he’s also 40 years old. Imavov should still be getting better at his young age, while Cannonier is almost certainly past his athletic peak. That should give Imavov a significant edge in speed and reflexes.

The French-trained Imavov is known for his striking game, but he’s originally from Dagestan and has the ability to mix in takedowns when needed. Coupled with his higher striking volume he’s the much higher floor and median play. Cannonier brings some knockout-related upside, but less per-minute safety.

Given the 14 fights on the card I don’t think it’s a must to stack this one, though it’s not a bad strategy. I prefer Imavov for cash games but will mix in some Cannonier GPP lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Miguel Baeza ($8,700)

Baeza has the highest median projection in our models despite an $8,700 price tag that’s well off the high-water mark for the slate. That makes him an extremely solid option, though that should come with correspondingly high ownership.

His moneyline price has swelled north of -200 at some shops after opening around -155 for his bout against Punahele Soriano ($7,600). It’s the welterweight debut for Soriano, who lost four of his last five contests at 185 before dropping down.

I’m rarely a fan of fighters dropping weight classes at this point in their career. Soriano is 31 with seven UFC bouts, and it will likely be a tough cut to 170 lbs. It’s also frequently a sign of desperation from fighters who can’t — or won’t — fix the skill gaps in their game.

With that said, Baeza has lost his last three fights, so it’s hard to have too much confidence in him. It’s more of a “trust the markets” situation than anything, though he’s shown better all-around skills in his wins than Soriano.

I wouldn’t play much of Baeza if he were on the other side of $9,000 in salary. At his current price tag, he’s a solid option for all contest types.

The Upside Play

Brunno Ferreira ($9,400)

Through twelve professional fights, Brunno Ferreira has seen the second round just twice. Both of those bouts ended within the first 68 seconds of the second frame.

We’ve seen the good and the bad of his reckless style in his three-fight UFC career. He made his debut with an upset knockout over Gregory Rodrigues before getting startched in the first frame by Nurlston Ruziboev in his second fight. Overall, he’s 2-1 in the promotion, with each fight ending by first-round KO.

Despite his solid record, he now draws his first opponent with a losing record in the UFC in Dustin Stoltzfus ($6,800). It’s an odd step down for Ferreira, given his past competition, but here we are.

On paper, Stoltzfus has a considerable significant grappling edge. To sue it he’ll have to walk through the power and overcome the massive athleticism edge of Ferreira, so it probably won’t matter.

This one could also get scary for the Brazilian if the fight goes past his typical six-minute or so cap, but it’s favored to end in under 1.5 rounds. He’s a fairly safe bet to get it done, and hopefully quick enough to justify his high salary.

The Value Play

Daniel Marcos ($8,000)

Perhaps due to the large amount of fights, this is an excellent card for value options. There are viable plays at a variety of price ranges, with plenty of fights featuring big underdogs who are likely to last all 15 minutes.

On the pricier side (relatively speaking), we have Marcos. Originally lined as an underdog, he’s flipped to a favorite of -120 by Friday. The undefeated Peruvian is coming off of a No Contest due to an illegal groin strike in his last bout. However, he was winning up to that point and is 2-0 in his other UFC fights.

He’s facing John Castenada ($8,200), who’s a solid 4-2 in the UFC. This fight is -245 to go over 2.5 rounds, creating a solid floor for both men even without picking up a win bonus.

With Marcos coming in cheaper, more likely to win (at least based on betting lines), and the more active striker, he’s an excellent cash game play. Cheaper options who provide less win equity — but similar odds to get 15 minutes to work with — include Cody Stamann ($7,300) and Jesse Butler ($6,600), but of course, you get what you pay for with the cheaper fighters.

The Contrarian Choice

Ricky Turcios ($6,900)

This is the second attempt at Ricky Turcios vs. Raul Rosas Jr. ($9,300). Back in February, Rosas pulled out during the event due to an unexplained illness.

Now we’re getting a second shot at this fight, with Rosas as a fairly heavy favorite. However, we’ve seen flaws in the 19-year-old’s game. His grappling-heavy style (more than 10 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes) creates a massive drain on his cardio. He fell apart after a dominant first round in his lone UFC loss to Christian Rodriguez.

Turcios isn’t as good as Rodriguez, but has shown an ability to scramble up when taken down. He’s also a BJJ brown belt who’s never been submitted. While Turcios is probably in for a rough few minutes against the relentless takedowns of Rosas, he can take over late.

Given his minute salary, it wouldn’t take much for Turcios to end up in the optimal lineup. There’s a decent risk he gets overwhelmed and submitted in the first round, but should he make it past that point, he’ll be in an excellent position.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Julian Marquez ($8,300) vs. Zach Reese ($7,900)

This is an extremely difficult fight to break down, as Reese suffered a fairly fluky slam loss less than two minutes into his UFC debut. The long, lanky grappler had what looked to be a tight triangle choke locked in at the time and was probably on his way to a submission victory.

Marquez is also a solid grappler with a stockier, more powerful build. All three of his UFC wins have come via submission, though the last of those was more than three years ago. Since then, he’s suffered two knockout losses.

This fight is a ridiculous -700 to end inside the distance, as both men have shown tremendous finishing ability and potentially concerning durability. Reese’s slam loss is a bit more forgivable, but still not a great sign.

The line has moved slightly to Marquez, though I have some questions, given his inactivity and recent results. My lean is to Reese here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see either fighter pick up a quick finish.

I’ll have exposure to this one in nearly all of my GPP lineups, with a fairly even split between both fighters.

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The UFC is staying on the road this weekend with UFC Louisville from the KFC Yum! Center — the granddaddy of them all — in Kentucky. Two top-10 middleweights are meeting in the main event, with former title contender Jared Cannonier taking on rising prospect Nassourdine Imavov.

It’s a big slate, with 14 fights starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Nassourdine Imavov ($8,600) vs. Jared Cannonier ($7,600)

I don’t have especially strong feelings about this main event — at least relative to the DFS prices — which seem roughly correct on both sides. The 28-year-old Imavov is 5-2 in the UFC, with a majority decision loss in his debut and a later short-notice loss to Sean Strickland.

Outside of those matches, he’s been extremely solid, with two knockouts in his five wins and a high-volume striking style. He should have a technical striking edge over Canonier as the better defensive fighter.

Cannonier is the more powerful striker. A former heavyweight and light heavyweight, his power has translated to the lighter division with four knockouts in seven wins at 185. His two losses in the division are to former champions Robert Whitaker and Israel Adesanya, and he holds a (controversial) split decision win against another former champ in Strickland.

However, he’s also 40 years old. Imavov should still be getting better at his young age, while Cannonier is almost certainly past his athletic peak. That should give Imavov a significant edge in speed and reflexes.

The French-trained Imavov is known for his striking game, but he’s originally from Dagestan and has the ability to mix in takedowns when needed. Coupled with his higher striking volume he’s the much higher floor and median play. Cannonier brings some knockout-related upside, but less per-minute safety.

Given the 14 fights on the card I don’t think it’s a must to stack this one, though it’s not a bad strategy. I prefer Imavov for cash games but will mix in some Cannonier GPP lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Miguel Baeza ($8,700)

Baeza has the highest median projection in our models despite an $8,700 price tag that’s well off the high-water mark for the slate. That makes him an extremely solid option, though that should come with correspondingly high ownership.

His moneyline price has swelled north of -200 at some shops after opening around -155 for his bout against Punahele Soriano ($7,600). It’s the welterweight debut for Soriano, who lost four of his last five contests at 185 before dropping down.

I’m rarely a fan of fighters dropping weight classes at this point in their career. Soriano is 31 with seven UFC bouts, and it will likely be a tough cut to 170 lbs. It’s also frequently a sign of desperation from fighters who can’t — or won’t — fix the skill gaps in their game.

With that said, Baeza has lost his last three fights, so it’s hard to have too much confidence in him. It’s more of a “trust the markets” situation than anything, though he’s shown better all-around skills in his wins than Soriano.

I wouldn’t play much of Baeza if he were on the other side of $9,000 in salary. At his current price tag, he’s a solid option for all contest types.

The Upside Play

Brunno Ferreira ($9,400)

Through twelve professional fights, Brunno Ferreira has seen the second round just twice. Both of those bouts ended within the first 68 seconds of the second frame.

We’ve seen the good and the bad of his reckless style in his three-fight UFC career. He made his debut with an upset knockout over Gregory Rodrigues before getting startched in the first frame by Nurlston Ruziboev in his second fight. Overall, he’s 2-1 in the promotion, with each fight ending by first-round KO.

Despite his solid record, he now draws his first opponent with a losing record in the UFC in Dustin Stoltzfus ($6,800). It’s an odd step down for Ferreira, given his past competition, but here we are.

On paper, Stoltzfus has a considerable significant grappling edge. To sue it he’ll have to walk through the power and overcome the massive athleticism edge of Ferreira, so it probably won’t matter.

This one could also get scary for the Brazilian if the fight goes past his typical six-minute or so cap, but it’s favored to end in under 1.5 rounds. He’s a fairly safe bet to get it done, and hopefully quick enough to justify his high salary.

The Value Play

Daniel Marcos ($8,000)

Perhaps due to the large amount of fights, this is an excellent card for value options. There are viable plays at a variety of price ranges, with plenty of fights featuring big underdogs who are likely to last all 15 minutes.

On the pricier side (relatively speaking), we have Marcos. Originally lined as an underdog, he’s flipped to a favorite of -120 by Friday. The undefeated Peruvian is coming off of a No Contest due to an illegal groin strike in his last bout. However, he was winning up to that point and is 2-0 in his other UFC fights.

He’s facing John Castenada ($8,200), who’s a solid 4-2 in the UFC. This fight is -245 to go over 2.5 rounds, creating a solid floor for both men even without picking up a win bonus.

With Marcos coming in cheaper, more likely to win (at least based on betting lines), and the more active striker, he’s an excellent cash game play. Cheaper options who provide less win equity — but similar odds to get 15 minutes to work with — include Cody Stamann ($7,300) and Jesse Butler ($6,600), but of course, you get what you pay for with the cheaper fighters.

The Contrarian Choice

Ricky Turcios ($6,900)

This is the second attempt at Ricky Turcios vs. Raul Rosas Jr. ($9,300). Back in February, Rosas pulled out during the event due to an unexplained illness.

Now we’re getting a second shot at this fight, with Rosas as a fairly heavy favorite. However, we’ve seen flaws in the 19-year-old’s game. His grappling-heavy style (more than 10 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes) creates a massive drain on his cardio. He fell apart after a dominant first round in his lone UFC loss to Christian Rodriguez.

Turcios isn’t as good as Rodriguez, but has shown an ability to scramble up when taken down. He’s also a BJJ brown belt who’s never been submitted. While Turcios is probably in for a rough few minutes against the relentless takedowns of Rosas, he can take over late.

Given his minute salary, it wouldn’t take much for Turcios to end up in the optimal lineup. There’s a decent risk he gets overwhelmed and submitted in the first round, but should he make it past that point, he’ll be in an excellent position.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Julian Marquez ($8,300) vs. Zach Reese ($7,900)

This is an extremely difficult fight to break down, as Reese suffered a fairly fluky slam loss less than two minutes into his UFC debut. The long, lanky grappler had what looked to be a tight triangle choke locked in at the time and was probably on his way to a submission victory.

Marquez is also a solid grappler with a stockier, more powerful build. All three of his UFC wins have come via submission, though the last of those was more than three years ago. Since then, he’s suffered two knockout losses.

This fight is a ridiculous -700 to end inside the distance, as both men have shown tremendous finishing ability and potentially concerning durability. Reese’s slam loss is a bit more forgivable, but still not a great sign.

The line has moved slightly to Marquez, though I have some questions, given his inactivity and recent results. My lean is to Reese here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see either fighter pick up a quick finish.

I’ll have exposure to this one in nearly all of my GPP lineups, with a fairly even split between both fighters.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 61 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Dern vs. Yan, More Saturday Fights UFC 283 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Hill vs. Teixera, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 80 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Dawson vs. Green, More Saturday Fights UFC 294 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Makhachev vs. Volkanovski, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.