UFC

UFC London DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Edwards vs. Brady, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is in London this weekend, with native son Leon Edwards looking to defend his #1 welterweight ranking against Sean Brady. The 13-fight card has a special 1:00 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to have your lineups ready.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Main Event

Sean Brady ($8,600) vs. Leon Edwards ($7,600)

It’s suddenly crowded at the top of the welterweight division, with current champion Belal Muhammad booked to fight Jack Della Maddalena, Shavkat Rakhmonov next in line for a title shot, and a few deserving contenders.

That includes the men in the UFC London main event, Leon Edwards and Sean Brady. Edwards dropped the title to Muhammad in a lackluster performance last July, while Brady’s sole career loss came to the current titleholder.

The favored Brady has been flawless otherwise, using dominant grappling to finish 4 of his 7 UFC wins. The pressure and grappling-focused strategy employed by Muhammad against Edwards should be available for Brady as well, as both men share similar skill sets and builds.

However, outside of the Muhammad fight, Edwards has been able to resist grapplers in the past. Edwards claims his performance against Muhammad was due to an off night—the fight happened around 5 a.m. local time. Still, his previous win against Colby Covington was also somewhat lackluster, so it’s possible “Rocky” has seen his best days.

Either way, Brady is the much stronger DFS asset thanks to his finishing and takedown upside. He’s -210 in the “finish only” market and averages about 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. For that reason, he’ll get the bulk of my exposure in this fight.

Edwards doesn’t score especially well on a per-minute basis, but at his price point, he could pay off with an upset. I’ll be stacking this one for cash games since I’m not entirely confident Brady gets the win, but there’s an argument to be made for fading Edwards entirely.

The Easy Chalk

Jordan Vucenic ($9,300)

There are three fighters on this card who are at least -450 favorites, with Vucenic being the cheapest of the options. In large part, that’s the reason I prefer him at the top of the pay salary scale. All three have similar levels of safety, and saving the $300 from Christian Leroy Duncan ($9,600) goes a long way on this slate.

Vucenic is a former Cage Warriors champion (defeating fellow UFC London fighter Morgan Charriere ($8,700) to win the belt) making his second UFC appearance. His first came against Guram Kutateladze ($9,400) on short notice.

Vucenic dropped and nearly finished Kutateladze in the first round of that fight, before understandably running out of gas in the later rounds. All things considered, it was a solid performance against a highly regarded opponent, and the cardio issues should be resolved by having a full fight camp.

He’s taking on Scotland’s Chris Duncan ($6,900) this time around. Duncan is 3-1 in the promotion against lower-level competition and lacks the pre-UFC resume of Vucenic.

While I don’t think paying up for any of the expensive fighters is mandatory (particularly in cash games), Vucenic would be my preferred option. He has the striking ability to get a quick win here as well, making him appealing for GPPs.

The Upside Play

Carlos Ulberg ($9,000)

My favorite overall play at the top of the salary scale is Ulberg. He’s seen considerable line movement his way for his fight against Jan Blachowicz ($7,200) and should come at somewhat of an ownership discount relative to the other top fighters.

Blachowicz is 40 years old and coming off surgeries to both shoulders that have kept him out of action for nearly two years. I broke down this fight from a betting standpoint this week, but the DFS-relevant conclusion is that there’s a lot of downside risk for Blachowicz.

Between his age and injury issues, there’s a good chance that the more athletic Ulberg finishes the former champion early, and at worst, he likely piles up a high number of strikes en route to a decision victory. That wouldn’t be quite enough at his salary, but it wouldn’t kill your lineups either.

That mix of floor and ceiling means I’m comfortable playing Ulberg in all contest types this weekend.

The Value Plays

Caolan Loughran ($7,800)

Caolan Loughran opened the week as a +110 underdog, but as of Friday, his betting odds range between +102 and -108, making him a couple hundred dollars underpriced heading into his fight against Nathan Fletcher ($8,400).

While Loughran is just 1-2 in the UFC, both losses were reasonably close decisions against solid opposition. Crucially for DFS, he’s also managed to land six takedowns across those three fights—while attempting 23.

He’s taking on a submission grappler in Fletcher who’s likely to accept more of those takedowns should they come, giving Loughran a solid floor in this matchup that’s -200 to go to a decision. Even in a loss, he likely picks up a few takedowns and puts up a reasonable fantasy number.

At best, he piles up takedowns en route to a decision victory, giving him plenty of upside as well. He’s a strong option for both cash games and GPPs.

The other option for cash game punts is Puja Tomar ($7,400), who’s seen her line drop slightly in a fight from -500 to go the distance. She doesn’t provide nearly the upside of Loughran but is a fine pivot if the $400 is impactful.

The Contrarian Choice

Kaue Fernandes ($6,800)

Of the three cheapest fighters on the slate, Fernandes is the most drastically undervalued. He’s facing the aforementioned Guram Kutateladze, who has consistently underperformed as a heavy favorite in his UFC career.

Kutateladze won a controversial split decision in his UFC debut, dropped his next two fights (including one by knockout), and then was nearly finished by Vucenic last August. Being knocked down in consecutive fights is a troubling sign, especially against Fernandes.

The Brazilian is coming off a knockout victory of his own, with his last three wins all coming by first-round KO. His only loss in that time frame was a split decision.

He should at least be able to keep things close against his Georgian opponent and could potentially sneak into the optimal lineup even in a loss. Any win would obviously get him there as well, but he has the power to pull off a quick finish.

Sean Zerillo and I both discussed the upside for Fernandes on our latest UFC betting preview:

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fight

Gunnar Nelson ($8,500) vs. Kevin Holland ($7,700)

One of just two fights with better than -200 odds to end inside the distance, Kevin Holland returns to welterweight to take on the veteran Gunnar Nelson.

Nelson hasn’t fought in over two years and has had just two appearances in the last five years. While those were both wins, they came against low-level opposition in Takashi Sato and Bryan Barberena. Holland comes in on a two-fight losing streak, but both bouts took place at middleweight.

Holland has been much better at 170 lbs throughout his career, going 4-3 in the weight class but taking future title challenger Jack Della Maddalena to a split decision. He should be the better fighter here, but it’s a rough style matchup for “Trailblazer.”

Nelson is a high-level grappler, and Holland has typically struggled against that archetype. He has had much more success defending takedowns against smaller welterweights, though. Still, he has a knack for making poor decisions to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, which makes rostering him a risk.

I’ll have mostly Holland in this matchup but mix in a few Nelson lineups as a hedge. If Nelson is able to take Holland down, he has massive takedown-based upside, so I want exposure to both men.

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The UFC is in London this weekend, with native son Leon Edwards looking to defend his #1 welterweight ranking against Sean Brady. The 13-fight card has a special 1:00 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to have your lineups ready.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Sean Brady ($8,600) vs. Leon Edwards ($7,600)

It’s suddenly crowded at the top of the welterweight division, with current champion Belal Muhammad booked to fight Jack Della Maddalena, Shavkat Rakhmonov next in line for a title shot, and a few deserving contenders.

That includes the men in the UFC London main event, Leon Edwards and Sean Brady. Edwards dropped the title to Muhammad in a lackluster performance last July, while Brady’s sole career loss came to the current titleholder.

The favored Brady has been flawless otherwise, using dominant grappling to finish 4 of his 7 UFC wins. The pressure and grappling-focused strategy employed by Muhammad against Edwards should be available for Brady as well, as both men share similar skill sets and builds.

However, outside of the Muhammad fight, Edwards has been able to resist grapplers in the past. Edwards claims his performance against Muhammad was due to an off night—the fight happened around 5 a.m. local time. Still, his previous win against Colby Covington was also somewhat lackluster, so it’s possible “Rocky” has seen his best days.

Either way, Brady is the much stronger DFS asset thanks to his finishing and takedown upside. He’s -210 in the “finish only” market and averages about 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. For that reason, he’ll get the bulk of my exposure in this fight.

Edwards doesn’t score especially well on a per-minute basis, but at his price point, he could pay off with an upset. I’ll be stacking this one for cash games since I’m not entirely confident Brady gets the win, but there’s an argument to be made for fading Edwards entirely.

The Easy Chalk

Jordan Vucenic ($9,300)

There are three fighters on this card who are at least -450 favorites, with Vucenic being the cheapest of the options. In large part, that’s the reason I prefer him at the top of the pay salary scale. All three have similar levels of safety, and saving the $300 from Christian Leroy Duncan ($9,600) goes a long way on this slate.

Vucenic is a former Cage Warriors champion (defeating fellow UFC London fighter Morgan Charriere ($8,700) to win the belt) making his second UFC appearance. His first came against Guram Kutateladze ($9,400) on short notice.

Vucenic dropped and nearly finished Kutateladze in the first round of that fight, before understandably running out of gas in the later rounds. All things considered, it was a solid performance against a highly regarded opponent, and the cardio issues should be resolved by having a full fight camp.

He’s taking on Scotland’s Chris Duncan ($6,900) this time around. Duncan is 3-1 in the promotion against lower-level competition and lacks the pre-UFC resume of Vucenic.

While I don’t think paying up for any of the expensive fighters is mandatory (particularly in cash games), Vucenic would be my preferred option. He has the striking ability to get a quick win here as well, making him appealing for GPPs.

The Upside Play

Carlos Ulberg ($9,000)

My favorite overall play at the top of the salary scale is Ulberg. He’s seen considerable line movement his way for his fight against Jan Blachowicz ($7,200) and should come at somewhat of an ownership discount relative to the other top fighters.

Blachowicz is 40 years old and coming off surgeries to both shoulders that have kept him out of action for nearly two years. I broke down this fight from a betting standpoint this week, but the DFS-relevant conclusion is that there’s a lot of downside risk for Blachowicz.

Between his age and injury issues, there’s a good chance that the more athletic Ulberg finishes the former champion early, and at worst, he likely piles up a high number of strikes en route to a decision victory. That wouldn’t be quite enough at his salary, but it wouldn’t kill your lineups either.

That mix of floor and ceiling means I’m comfortable playing Ulberg in all contest types this weekend.

The Value Plays

Caolan Loughran ($7,800)

Caolan Loughran opened the week as a +110 underdog, but as of Friday, his betting odds range between +102 and -108, making him a couple hundred dollars underpriced heading into his fight against Nathan Fletcher ($8,400).

While Loughran is just 1-2 in the UFC, both losses were reasonably close decisions against solid opposition. Crucially for DFS, he’s also managed to land six takedowns across those three fights—while attempting 23.

He’s taking on a submission grappler in Fletcher who’s likely to accept more of those takedowns should they come, giving Loughran a solid floor in this matchup that’s -200 to go to a decision. Even in a loss, he likely picks up a few takedowns and puts up a reasonable fantasy number.

At best, he piles up takedowns en route to a decision victory, giving him plenty of upside as well. He’s a strong option for both cash games and GPPs.

The other option for cash game punts is Puja Tomar ($7,400), who’s seen her line drop slightly in a fight from -500 to go the distance. She doesn’t provide nearly the upside of Loughran but is a fine pivot if the $400 is impactful.

The Contrarian Choice

Kaue Fernandes ($6,800)

Of the three cheapest fighters on the slate, Fernandes is the most drastically undervalued. He’s facing the aforementioned Guram Kutateladze, who has consistently underperformed as a heavy favorite in his UFC career.

Kutateladze won a controversial split decision in his UFC debut, dropped his next two fights (including one by knockout), and then was nearly finished by Vucenic last August. Being knocked down in consecutive fights is a troubling sign, especially against Fernandes.

The Brazilian is coming off a knockout victory of his own, with his last three wins all coming by first-round KO. His only loss in that time frame was a split decision.

He should at least be able to keep things close against his Georgian opponent and could potentially sneak into the optimal lineup even in a loss. Any win would obviously get him there as well, but he has the power to pull off a quick finish.

Sean Zerillo and I both discussed the upside for Fernandes on our latest UFC betting preview:

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

The Swing Fight

Gunnar Nelson ($8,500) vs. Kevin Holland ($7,700)

One of just two fights with better than -200 odds to end inside the distance, Kevin Holland returns to welterweight to take on the veteran Gunnar Nelson.

Nelson hasn’t fought in over two years and has had just two appearances in the last five years. While those were both wins, they came against low-level opposition in Takashi Sato and Bryan Barberena. Holland comes in on a two-fight losing streak, but both bouts took place at middleweight.

Holland has been much better at 170 lbs throughout his career, going 4-3 in the weight class but taking future title challenger Jack Della Maddalena to a split decision. He should be the better fighter here, but it’s a rough style matchup for “Trailblazer.”

Nelson is a high-level grappler, and Holland has typically struggled against that archetype. He has had much more success defending takedowns against smaller welterweights, though. Still, he has a knack for making poor decisions to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, which makes rostering him a risk.

I’ll have mostly Holland in this matchup but mix in a few Nelson lineups as a hedge. If Nelson is able to take Holland down, he has massive takedown-based upside, so I want exposure to both men.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 77 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Holm vs. Bueno Silva, More Saturday Fights UFC Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Gane vs. Spivac, More Saturday Fights UFC 293 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Strickland, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 97 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Brady vs. Burns, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.