The UFC heads back to the O2 arena in London on Saturday, with the main event featuring the return of home-grown heavyweight Tom Aspinall from a knee injury in his last fight. He’s taking on UFC veteran Marcin Tybura in the main event, with a packed 15-fight card.
Contests lock at noon Eastern on Saturday, with the full event available on ESPN+.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Tom Aspinall ($9,700) vs. Marcin Tybura ($6,500)
Almost exactly one year ago, Aspinall was on the very short list of promising contenders in the heavyweight division, with five straight wins in the UFC, all in under six minutes or so. Then, 15 seconds into his fight with Curtis Blaydes, Aapinall’s knee gave out.
Now he’s back to the same venue where that injury took place, and the heavyweight’s “young contenders” list is considerably longer. Beating Marcin Tybura probably doesn’t get Aspinall into a title shot, but it would be a big step in the right direction.
Tybura is a gatekeeper in the most complimentary sense of the word, with an 11-6 UFC record and wins over solid competition. Aspinall should be better nearly everywhere, though, with excellent grappling and boxing. Aspinall’s biggest edge, in theory, is his speed and athleticism. Aspinall has rare speed for a man who weighs in around 260 lbs.
Whether that athleticism is there following the knee injury is a significant concern, though, as this was a relatively fast turnaround given the severity of the injury — and the size of the man the reconstructed knee must now support. For that reason, I’ll be mixing in some Tybura GPP lineups while stacking both men in cash.
While the likeliest scenario is a quick Aspinall win — he’s -110 to win in round 1 — the savings on Tybura is worth it in cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Makhmud Muradov ($9,500)
At the start of the week, all three fighters between $9,300 and $9,500 in salary had relatively similar betting odds. Since then, the line has moved against two of them — with Muradov being the lone exception. He’s now a whopping -345 favorite against Bryan Barberena ($6,700) on Saturday, making him the obvious premium option outside of the main event.
This is the middleweight debut for Barberena, who never looked especially big — or in shape at welterweight. That’s never a good sign, nor is his back-to-back losses against older competitors in his last two fights.
While Muradov is also riding a two-fight losing streak, he fought surging contender Caio Borralho his last time out and took him to a reasonably close decision. He’s also a big middleweight himself and should have a considerable size edge over Barberena.
It’s hard to fit both Muradov and Aspinall into GPP lineups, but it could be a worthwhile strategy this time, as they’re head-and-shoulders over the rest of the competition.
The Value Play
Pannie Kianzad ($7,100)
With two very expensive fighters we’d like to roster — and a few more near those levels — Kianzad should be a popular salary-saving option this week. She checks all of the boxes we look for in that regard. The line has moved her way a bit this week, she throws a ton of volume at over five significant strikes per minute, and at +215, her fight is the least likely to end inside the distance.
She’s fighting Ketlen Vieira ($9,100), who has just one stoppage in her six UFC wins, so it’s very likely we get a full 15 minutes from Kianzad. While she has next-to-no finishing upside herself, she’d be a fine cash game play with a 30-point loss or a solid GPP option if she adds a decision win on top of that.
Her striking volume and 80% takedown defense give her a shot at taking the decision here, though my interest in her is primarily for cash games.
Julija Stolirenko ($6,800) deserves an honorable mention here as well. She’s had some line movement her way for her fight against Molly McCann ($9,400), but the fight is much likelier to end inside the distance at -200. She’s a higher ceiling but lower floor play than Kianzad.
The Upside Plays
Paul Craig ($6,900)
I love Paul Craig fights. He has one of the most intense pre-fight routines in the sport, with his aggressive stare-downs and screams during the introduction — which he follows by getting punched in the face repeatedly while desperately trying to force a grappling match.
On occasion, it works, though, as evidenced by his seven submission wins in the UFC. He’s the only man to ever defeat recently deposed light heavyweight kingpin Jamahal Hill — who forfeited his belt due to injury — and is now making his middleweight debut against Andre Muniz ($9,200).
It’s a grappler vs. grappler matchup, as Muniz is also a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. Both Muniz and Craig have what could be generously described as “limited” offensive wrestling, but it will be interesting to see what happens if either or both are forced to defend takedowns for once.
Muniz was brought to the mat and submitted fairly easily by Brendan Allen his last time out, though, giving Craig backers a sliver of hope he can repeat that feat. While Muniz should have a striking edge, both men are far more comfortable grappling.
If Muniz falls into that trap against Craig, we could see a pretty big score via a quick submission from “Bearjew.” (Note to Justin — that’s actually his nickname lmao) Not that he’d need to finish it quickly — essentially, any win should propel him into the optimal with his sub-$7,000 salary
The Contrarian Choice
Mick Parkin ($7,300)
Parkin is taking on Jamal Pogues ($8,900) in a far lower-level heavyweight fight than we have in the main event. To be frank, I’m not especially high on either man. Pogues needed two wins on the Contender Series to secure a contract due to the boring nature of his fights, and he’s more “out of shape light heavyweight” than a true heavyweight.
Parkin has just two minutes under the UFC banner — coming on the Contender Series — and didn’t look great himself. He was losing the fight fairly badly before his opponent gassed out mere moments before Parkin, but Parkin had just enough in the tank to secure the victory.
The lower level of a fight, the more variance we should expect, though, as either man being clearly better than the other certainly wouldn’t shock me here. I’m way more comfortable mixing in the underdog in scenarios like that, as the risk of being wrong is far lower, thanks to the cheap salary.
Parkin has also finished all five of his professional wins, while Pogues has made decisions in each of his last four victories. Getting the higher ceiling fighter at Parkin’s price tag doesn’t come often, so I’ll be mixing in a healthy dose for GPPs.
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The Swing Fight
Chris Duncan ($8,400) vs. Yanaal Ashmouz ($7,800)
Chris Duncan and Yanaal Asmouz have 18 professional fights between them. Just three of those have involved the judges. Both men are powerful strikers, so we’re anticipating fireworks in this lightweight clash, which has -250 odds to end inside the distance.
Ashmouz is my preferred pick despite his underdog status for a few reasons. Many weeks he’d be a bit more expensive at his +125 odds, but the glut of close lines on this week’s card forced his salary a bit lower. I also noticed something watching his tape that should favor Ashmouz.
Duncan, the taller fighter, likes to initiate exchanges with kicks but doesn’t do a great job hiding them behind punches or setting them up. He had his kicks caught a few times against Omar Morales in his debut and paid the price by getting taken down and/or eating some stiff shots.
In Ashmouz’s debut, he faced an even taller/longer fighter — and stepped right into punching range against a kick from his opponent, flooring him with a right hook. That should be the game plan again here, and he has the power to put Duncan away.
Still, I’ll be mixing in a bit of both men, as Duncan has the grappling upside and is the favorite here. It’s not quite a “don’t make a lineup without one of them” fight, but it’s close.
I mentioned Ashmouz as one of the underdogs I was betting on this week’s UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
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