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Rob Font vs Cody Garbrandt
Speed, precision, power and well-oiled technique. That’s what you have in this very underrated UFC Fight Night main event.
Matchups in MMA either fit or they don’t. Even if you have the prototypical “grappler vs. striker” matchup, there are other areas in which both fighters can try to utilize a silent edge. However, then you get the matchups where both men hold very similar strengths and are wired mentally to who has a firmer grasp on the ace in their hand. Call it ego, call it an endless confidence that their strong suits can stand up to anyones, but I just call it brilliant matchmaking.
You are preparing to watch a dynamic stylistic clash in the standup department that you don’t see everyday in the world of MMA. Both Rob Front and Cody Garbrandt are extremely polished strikers that hold different velocity, different gunpowder and different approaches, but a clear and concise ability to finish the other with their own poison.
At one time, Garbrandt was literally on the top of the heap with his career. After an undefeated record and a 5-0 start in the UFC, he was involved in the biggest scrap of his life against none other than future Hall of Famer Dominick Cruz for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Garbrandt literally ran circles around Cruz with speed, smooth movement, a stifling jab and an overall aura that said no one could beat him on that night. You will have nights like this in anything you do where you are just completely dialed in and everything is just working.
Winning the belt set up an immediate matchup against himself and the one man that he despises, TJ Dillashaw. Dillashaw knocked out Garbrandt for the title and did it again in the rematch. Garbrandt took some time off before returning against an always tough and durable Pedro Munoz. It was a very entertaining fight until the firefight started, and Munoz flatlined Garbrandt for his third straight loss, all by TKO.
What did we learn about Garbrandt in these fights? That he is probably the easiest person to bait into a fire fight just off emotions alone. Garbrandt makes the one mistake that you should never do as a fighter: fight based on emotion. If he gets hit, instead of sitting back, resetting and looking to score with a little more patience, Garbrandt feels the need to get it back right there and then. That, in turn, will draw him into the pocket recklessly hellbent to just load up and start swinging.
That’s all fine and good if you have a good chin, but Garbrandt has shown us that he can be dropped very easily if you hit the mark. Those three losses have been based on emotional responses. Something like this can be worked on but at the end of the day, it is just wired into someone’s DNA to either stay composed or fight fire with fire. Garbrandt will win many heated exchanges with sheer speed, precision and power. If his chin is there at the wrong time, though, I wouldn’t put his chin on a shelf to be tested against anyone.
On Saturday night, Garbrandt will take on Font, who is coming off a brilliant TKO win over Marlon Moraes in December.
Now on a three-fight win streak, it seems that Font is finally finding his footing and feeling good about it. With wins over Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon and Moraes, this fight marks a very important one for him and can put him in the title picture.
With an 18-4 record, Font has eight wins via KO and four by way of submission. He has three losses via decision and one by submission, having never been knocked out.
The Brazilian jiu jitsu brown belt would rather put that to the side when he can get his hands flowing in the right direction. With some of the slickest hands in the division, Font understands how to utilize his jab to create the openings he needs. He carries very good power in both hands and his cage IQ has matured very much over the past few years. The one blur point is the record showing that he has never been knocked out. While this is true, Garbrandt has the power and the precision to deliver a first KO for anyone.
The issue I have in this fight is if Garbrandt can really stay out of his own head. We know he has the skill and talent to beat many of the top guys in the division but when that war switch flips up, he will just charge in with bad intentions, coupled with terrible fundamentals and just start throwing caution to the wind.
Trusting Garbrandt’s chin over 25 minutes is a very scary proposition these days. On the feet, I see him holding the edge but I need to see it first. I need to see that his chin is still not completely dusted. A fighter getting knocked out in three straight fights is always something to be concerned with and never to be taken lightly. The trust isn’t there for me right now.
I am taking Font here. I don’t have that faith in Garbrandt’s ability to stay calm and composed in the heat of a firefight. He really needs to prove it to me before I buy in fully. Tough fight here, but I am leaning on Font to catch him at some point in which will change the complexion of the fight.
The Pick: Rob Font
DFS
Rob Font: $8,300
100+ Points: 6 of 10
Current Market Value: 7 of 10
Hedge: 6
In any five-round fight with this number, there is always going to be value. Font works behind a very good long and stifling jab. With good crisp boxing, I feel Font’s jab could be the emotional spark that sets Garbrandt into a firefight. If it goes there, I like Fonts chances and if he can bait him in again. I like him inside the horn.
Cody Garbrandt: $7,900
100+ Points: 3 of 10
Current Market Value 7 of 10
Hedge: 4
There is no denying Garbrandt’s hand speed and power. The kid is top of the heap in these two departments. However, durability is a bit of a question mark, and whether he can keep his chin in place over 25 minutes is going to be interesting to watch.
With that said, if he’s on, Font could be in for a long night or possibly a short one. There is no doubt Garbrandt can put anyone to sleep if he catches them, but keeping his emotions at bay is really the question here.
Whoever wins this fight covers value and will most likely be in the Optimum Lineup.
Vegas: Under 2.5 (-125)
Pictured above: Rob Font (left) and Cody Garbrandt.
Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC.
