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Update: Now that the Curtis Blaydes fight is officially off because of COVID-19, UFC has moved Smith vs. Clark into the main event spot, and it’s a now a five-round fight. That gives me a little more confidence on Smith here. Not only is he the better fighter, but three of his last four fights have been five rounds, whereas Clark has never seen the fourth and fifth round.
Both men tend to have their conditioning woes, but Smith has felt the fire in the lungs while this would be uncharted territory for Clark. For me, this is now officially Smith’s fight to win or lose. Which Anthony Smith shows up, we shall find out.
Anthony Smith
With a record of 33-16, it’s safe to say that Anthony Smith has had his share of wars in the cage. With 18 wins by KO and 12 by way of submission he isn’t always the one doing all the finishing. With 16 losses, he has been KO’d nine times and submitted four times.
Ever since his title shot against Jon Jones in 2019, it has been an uphill battle for Smith with three losses in his last four. Smith has fought the elite of the division and has had success and some downturns as well. With that said, it is starting to make me wonder if this is more mental than physical with him. He just doesn’t seem to be able to pull the trigger like he once did in the very recent past.
We know that Smith is going to fight and we know there is no quit in this kid, but you can’t help but wonder if the wear and tear is starting to become a reality to his fighting prowess. Smith’s fighting style is rugged, rough, and fan-friendly in many ways.
He will put it on you early with a good jab, solid power, gashing elbows, and knees and if he needs to hit the floor, so be it. The Black Belt in BJJ is very rarely recognized as someone with a good grappling game, but I can assure you he has a much more than serviceable one.
The issue with Smith is his reluctance to pull the trigger, but also his ability to really push through the conditioning barrier late. He tends to fade and when he does, he will become extremely telegraphed and Clark should look to target that out of the gate.
Devin Clark
Clark has taken huge strides, especially in his last fight against Alonzo Menefield. I know Menefield is a one-trick pony and very raw, so it wasn’t so much Clark beating him. It was more that Clark stuck to his game plan.
Clark had a tendency early on in his career to make some wrong decisions and take some wrong approaches, which would cost him some of his fights. However, against Menefield, he really stuck to his game plan and it paid off for him. With a record of 12-4, Clark comes to us with a solid wrestling background in which he will plan to lean on in this fight against Smith.
Clark generates a lot of torque when he is committing to his wrestling. He probably has some of the best wheels in the UFC and that’s where all your power and torque come from. He needs to take the same exact approach with Smith as he did Menefield, but he needs to really gain top control rather quickly in this one. If he takes Smith down and gets loose, Smith may be able to shake free and lace him up into something on the ground.
With that said, this will be all about the pace that Clark does or doesn’t put on Smith. Stay in space and keep the fight clean and Smith will most likely just pick you off at range. Drive his hips into the cage and make him carry your weight from the onset, tiring him out in the later minutes with heavy top control, and he may be earning it in the eyes of the judges.
However, this is a huge step up in class for Clark and Smith thrives in these chaotic moments. If Smith loses this fight, I think it might be time to buy into his decline, but until I see what he does Saturday night, Smith is just the better fighter here. Clark needs to show me he can excel against someone of Smith’s pedigree before I have faith in picking him.
The Bet
I took this fight at -135 for Smith with one eye closed. However, if you are giving me the better fighter for those odds, I need to take my chances on it. The value is there on him. There is something to be said about a fighter that knows exactly what you are going to do, and Smith knows exactly what Clarks game plan is, so if he can’t stop it then he deserves to lose.
Now that this is a five-round affair, and you take into account that Clark has never seen the championship rounds before, my confidence level on this wager has raised a bit.
The Pick: Smith
Daily Fantasy
Smith: DK $8,500/FD 16
Smith has been on quite the downslide and people tend to say “Well, he is still so young.” In numerical age, I do agree. With that said, fighting age is far different and you have to wonder if he is starting to show the wear.
However, Smith has been in there with the best and quite honestly this is a big step down for him.Three of his last four fights have been five-round fights which his lungs are used to at this point in his career, even though his conditioning has not been impressive. I’m going heavier on Smith since it’s five rounds.
Smith has the championship experience and the fourth and fifth rounds are extremely familiar territory for him. If he wins, he should cover his DFS value.
Clark: DK $7,700/FD 15
I will be pulling my shares back a little more on Clark because it’s a five-round fight. Not only is the biggest step up in competition for him, but this will also be his first fight with the potential to go outside of the third round. Too many question marks here for me. I won’t fade him, but its not because of his fighting prowess. It will be predicated on what Smith we do get. Don’t fade him but temper your expectations here.
Clark is a much better value on DraftKings.
Pictured: Anthony Smith
Photo Credit: Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images
