MadLab’s UFC Fight Night Main Event Betting & DFS Breakdown: Should Hermansson Be a Dog Here?

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It’s been a while since someone who shares my Italian heritage has been a dominant force in combat sports. We have had them, but many were before my time depending on your age, and it’s never translated to MMA.

The Bel Paese (Beautiful Country) has its eyes set on a middleweight contender named Marvin Vettori, who is looking to become the first true Italian champion in UFC history as he moves up the ranks in the division. However, Norweigan Jack Hermansson will do plenty to get in his way.

Marvin Vettori

I had my eye on Vettori early on in his career. Obviously, because he is Italian, but also because he brought a very workable and marketable game with loads of foundation to build on. Solid frame, explosive wrestling, intelligent transitioning, and a very tough and serviceable standup.

Vettori uprooted himself to Kings MMA in Huntington Beach, Calif., which is a hotbed for MMA. Vettori has assembled quite the team for himself. Holding a Brown Belt in BJJ under Filippo Stabile and striking under the watchful eye of Raphael Cordero, Vettori has no shortage or gaps in a camp like Kings MMA.

Despite Vetorri’s box-like frame, he moves very well on the ground and is extremely difficult to keep in place when you get him there. If he gets top control on you, then that is where his wide frame will pay off. He does a very good job keeping you in place and softening you up with nagging strikes until he can find your neck. Seven of Vetorri’s nine submission wins have come by RNC and Guillotine Chokes.

Vettori gained a lot of traction in his fight against Israel Adesanya, where he took him to the distance and lost a narrow split decision. However, people are not looking at what really kept that fight close. Vettori secured a couple takedowns and controlled some ground time against a guy who ultimately is a striker. He probably won’t have such luck against a guy like Hermansson who looks for the neck about as much as he does, if given the opportunity.

One issue I do have with Vettori is his conditioning. He does tend to gas out in spots and that was during three-round affairs. Now he is involved in a five-round affair with a guy that has been five rounds with a much slower dripping of gas tank.

However, his conditioning will not stop his pursuit, pressure and toughness. He knows what is on the line here and I can assure you that Vettori isn’t coming in ill-prepared for this one. He is going to need to pull out all the stops against a very diverse fighter in Jack The Joker Hermansson.

Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is not a fighter that you would say “Floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee.” He is not smooth, he isn’t one to glide into transitions seamlessly, and he isn’t the greatest of athletes in bending the laws of physics when it comes to mobility. But what he does bring to the table is an assortment of ammunition into a gun fight.

Hermansson’s style is spastic. He will throw chopping shots, very good low kicks and his grappling has been and is still being very overlooked, which is a little mind-bending to me. This is a guy who literally almost submitted one of the highest decorated BJJ players in the sport today in Ronaldo Souza. He also submitted David Branch, who is a black belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie and also collected the neck of Meerschart, who is tied for the most submission wins in the middleweight division with Damian Maia (though you can’t compare those two).

So I think it’s safe to say that Hermansson doesn’t get the grappling accolades that he deserves. Hermansson to me is much more of the riddler than he is a joker. It’s so hard to replicate his movements after looking at film. Traditional, fundamental, and universal movements are much easier to find the right looks for, but Hermansson has his own twist on things that are not very full and elongated. He tends to throw very short choppy shots and moves very erratically, but it works.

One issue I have seen with Jack is that if you pressure him enough, he tends to fight much less confidently moving backwards or when he is losing grips of the dance.

How I’m Betting

I think this is Hermansson’s fight to win if he really plays his cards right. There are many green check marks in the corner for him here. More experience, much better opposition, the ability and familiarity to go into championship rounds, better striking and a neutralizing ground game when Vettori decides to go ground.

He will need to stay off his back here at all costs. That is Vettori’s path to victory here — take Hermansson down and secure a heavy hipped top control where he can deliver damage from the top. With that said, Hermansson has a multitude of ways he can win this and that’s enough for me to take the dog here.

The Pick: Hermansson +120

UFC Fight Night DFS

Hermansson: $8,000 / 19 / 6

I am not sure how Hermansson is the dog here. I am really high on Vetorri and agree that this will be a close fight, but to make Hermansson a dog is not sitting right with me. I am thinking that people are magnifying Vetorri’s split against Izzy a little too much here.

Hermansson has beaten and fought far better competition and has been in five-round bouts, as well. From a value perspective here, 8k in a five-round fight with an extremely active fighter like Hermansson has upside major upside in this one. He has hit value six of his last 10 outings with four of them eclipsing the 100 point barrier. He also has 11 takedowns in his last 10 and has six finishes in his last 10.

It’s not a spot to fade the joker. Get some.

Lab Fact: Hermansson’s top score was over 140, and he also has one score over 120

Vettori: $8,200 / 21 / 4

When a fight is priced this close, if I fall into agreement with the pricing, I will utilize a few of my favorite lineups and swap the the fighters out without harming the rest of my lineup price-wise if I can.

Not on an even split but enough for a decent hedge. That’s DFS. That’s how this game is played and the fight game is as nuclear as it gets sometimes.

So I will have more Hermansson in this spot but Vettori has been progressing in every fight, he’s hungry and he does have that bullish style that tends to give Hermansson problems. He has hit value three times in eight fights, only hitting the 100 point bench mark in two of three. Six of his last eight went to the cards and he has never left Round 3, which can get interesting.

Vettori is not fade-able, but there is more upside for Hermansson from a finishing aspect in this one for me. The fourth and fifth round are somewhat of a mystery with Vettori. But again, I’ll have a taste on both in different lineup builds.

Fanduel seems to be giving better value pricing wise for both, for what it’s worth.

Lab Fact: Vettori’s highest score was his last outing where he dropped 129.

Pictured Above: Jack Hermansson
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Reminder: FantasyLabs All Access subscribers can now purchase MadLab’s industry-leading MMA projections to use in our MMA Player Models!

You can also enter promo code FLABS40 to get 40% off your first month of TheMadLabMMA.com‘s membership, which gives you access to all their betting and DFS content and community.