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Both of these men have had very different paths and storylines in their careers. Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event between middleweights Derek Brunson and Kevin Holland is a career crossroads in terms of age, but it should provide an entertaining fight nonetheless. Let’s break down the fighters a little more.
Derek Brunson
On one side is Derek Brunson who has been a bit underwhelming until you truly look at his resume. Brunson has only really lost to the elite of the division. With a record of 21-7, his seven losses are against extremely well-respected names (Israel Adesanya, Jacare Souza two times, Anderson Silva, Robert Whitaker, Yoel Romero and Kendall Grove). That is an absolute murderers’ row that no one should bat an eyelash about.
In his 21 wins, Brunson has 12 KOs and 3 submissions. There seems to be a trend with aging fighters making a run as of late, and Brunson is no different. On the wrong side of 30, Brunson, 37, is on a three-fight win streak with his most impressive being his last fight against rising prospect Edmen Shahbazyan.
Brunson had a scholarship for two things that are on completely different ends of the spectrum. One was for wrestling in which he captured All-American honors three times in Division II, and the other was oddly enough for cheerleading. I think it’s safe to say given his credentials, he chose the proper path.
After his loss to Romero, he came out storming with a five-fight win streak that aligned him in a showdown fight with Whitaker. The fight earned Fight of the Night honors, but Brunson came up short. It seems that he hasn’t been able to get over the last step in his career. He makes it to the top and then a top dog seems to humble him a bit, sending him back down a few rungs. You tend to question if he has what it takes to get there and finally finish. Maybe things will change against Kevin Holland.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland came into the UFC with one thing in mind from Dana White. White needed a late replacement against Thiago Santos, and there were quite a few people that turned down the fight.
Insert Holland.
Even though he lost that fight, he fought like he belonged and even had Santos guessing a few times. It was clear there was something about this kid that was special.
With a record of 21-5, the kickboxing style fighter has a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu and a black belt under Travis Lutter in BJJ. Holland has proven why they call him “The Trailblazer”. With 11 KOs and 6 submissions, Holland is good everywhere and getting better.
The one thing that really makes him different is his confidence to try new things, and that’s where his nickname shines bright. Since his debut loss to Santos, he is 8-1 under the umbrella with his only loss to Brendan Allen by way of submission. He has not beaten the elite, but he has beaten some very formidable opponents.
His last win was against an aging BJJ ace in Souza. He had no issues with testing his chops on the ground with Souza. Instead of getting tied up in a bad situation, he was able to get an angle and finish Souza with strikes sitting down. It was extremely bizarre to see but also extremely cerebral to understand where he was and be creative and confident enough to attempt.
Holland is still a little raw and is still a bit too cocky when it comes right down to it. However, he has been humbled already, and that is a good thing. I initially didn’t enjoy his brash mouth in the cage. I felt like he was selling a little too much, but I soon realized that he wasn’t at all. Without that tied into his game, I’m really not sure it would be as organic. It truly is a part of his outfit. I think we all see that now.
I’m expecting this to be a very tough fight for Holland. The power that Brunson possesses, along with his excellent wrestling style when he uses it, can be a daunting task for anyone.
With that said, Holland just seems to find answers on the fly and that’s what really makes him tricky. He will show you something new in every fight that just makes you think. Both men have momentum, but I think Holland has much more to offer at this point. His upside is what the UFC is looking for, and quite honestly, I think he is the more diverse fighter.
Brunson is always going to make things hard on you in many spots, but the approach that Brunson brings seems like something that Holland will be able to capitalize on in spots. I am expecting Brunson to push a good pace early, throw with intent and power from the feet and look for the right time to get into the grappling exchanges. I expect him to have success, but just not enough to keep Holland at bay for a full 25 minutes in this one.
The Pick: Holland
DFS Breakdown
Brunson: $7800
100+ Points: 4-of-10
Covered Current Market Price: 6-of-10
Physical Advantages: Southpaw
Avg FP: 75
Hedge: 3-4
Brunson had the pressure, power, and wrestling to give Holland fit in there if he is smart about his approach. In his last 10 fights, he has finished four of them inside the horn. With six of the 10 fights climbing over his current market value, four of those six have been over the 100-point benchmark. Brunson is averaging 74 points per affair which is just shy of his asking price. In a five-round fight, Brunson holds clear value if he can catch Holland sleeping.
Holland: $8400
100+ Points: 3-of-10
Covered Current Market Price: 7-of-10
Physical Advantages: Two-inch height, 4-inch reach
Avg FP: 87
Hedge: 6-7
Holland is going to look to really keep things moving. He doesn’t want to be too stationary in this fight because Brunson will look to expose that rather quickly. Holland will play a cat-and-mouse game with Brunson, and at some point in time, Holland will have windows to do what he does in a very odd situation. The guy looks to finish, and if he does, his value will in fact hit. In 10 fights Holland has finished five of them with a mixture of submissions and KOs. He has hit or hit over his market value seven out of the 10 times with three of them hitting over 100 points. I shouldn’t need to tell you that Holland is in play.
Pictured above: UFC Fighter Kevin Holland
Photo credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
