Sean Strickland takes on fan favorite Uriah Hall in the main event of UFC on ESPN 28 on Saturday night. DFS lineups lock at 6 PM, do get those lineups in now.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Sean Strickland ($9300)
Strickland checks in with the highest floor, median, and ceiling projections on the slate. A dangerous striker riding a four-fight win streak, he’s a -225 favorite to win, with +155 (40% implied) odds to win inside the distance against Uriah Hall ($6900). Of course, as a main event fighter, the fight going to a decision isn’t always the worst thing, as it means two extra rounds of action.
Even if this were a three round fight, I’d be all over Strickland. This bout should be a stand-up war, as both fighters average less than one-third of a successful takedown per round. This is a perfect opportunity for Strickland to utilize his high volume striking.
His 66 attempted strikes per round is absurd for a middleweight, where the divisional average is just under 38. From a DFS standpoint, this means he has the ability to rack up points even without a finish which gives us a solid floor, and if he adds a stoppage bonus he’ll almost certainly be in the optimal lineup
Ownership will be high, so if you like Hall’s chin to hold up through five rounds there’s a strong case for fading Strickland in some of your GPP lineups, but you’ll definitely want some exposure, and should lock him in to cash games.
The Upside Plays
Bryan Barberena ($9600)
As the heaviest favorite on the card (-275), the only thing keeping Barberena out of the chalk category is his price tag. It will be somewhat difficult to fit him into lineups at his current price, and you’ll need a finish for him to pay off. Fortunately, oddsmakers have him as a coin flip to stop Jason Witt ($6600) before the final bell.
Our projections have Barberena well behind (9.8 points) Sean Strickland in median, but much closer in ceiling (2.9 points.) This is likely a function of the shorter scheduled duration of Barberena’s bout, since, like Strickland, he’s a very active striker who’s expected to finish his fight. The only knock I have on Barberena outside of his price tag, is that Witt could bring this fight to the ground for some or all of the contest.
“The Vanilla Gorilla” has attempted a takedown per round in his UFC career, with an above average 50% success rate. In Barberena’s last fight, he was taken down five times (albeit in 24 attempts) by Anthony Ivy. I expect the fight to go Barberena’s way, but this could hamper how many points he racks up
Kai Kamaka III ($8200)
With his 97.7 point ceiling projection, Kamaka is far and away the cheapest fighter at the top of our projections. Representing a great value as a slight (-115) favorite against Danny Chavez ($8000) Kamaka also has the third-best points per dollar projection.
While Kamaka doesn’t finish many fights, just one in eight professional wins, he brings a solid mix of striking and grappling activity to, attempting strikes and takedowns at an above-average rate. I like him to win this fight against the older, less active Chavez, and in his only other UFC win Kamaka racked up 115 points in a decision victory. He’s not the safest pick, but if he comes anywhere near that 115 point total form his last win he’ll certainly be in every GPP-winning lineup.
The Value Plays
Rani Yahya ($7700) and Phillipe Rowe ($7400)
Both fighters have a similar story here. They’re the only fighters with 90 point ceilings that cost less than $8200, both are slight underdogs, and both have relatively low floor and median projections.
What they also both have, is the two highest takedown attempts per round on the slate. This can pay dividends with the current scoring, since not only do fighters get five points per takedown, but they accumulate control time if they keep top position.
You probably only need to use one of these guys per lineup, and I’m leaning Yahya. He projects slightly better all around and has better odds to win. What I really like is that his opponent, Kyung Ho Kang ($8500), has allowed a 60% takedown rate against him in his recent UFC stint. Rowe’s opponent, Orion Cosce ($8800) is an undefeated UFC newcomer, so it’s harder to say whether he can wrestle or not.
With that said, you could certainly use both guys in a “stars-and-scrubs” style lineup, and I don’t really have a problem going with Rowe, who brings more power and should be less owned, given that Yahya is the co-main event.
The Swing Fight
Collin Anglin ($7600) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan ($8600)
I wrote more about this fight in our best bets column, but here we have two fighters making their UFC debut against each other. Baghdasaryan is a former K1 kickboxer who has finished four of his five pro MMA wins by knockout, and Anglin has secured stoppages in five of his eight wins.
I personally prefer Anglin here, as I think he has more paths to victory given his wrestling background, but I’m far more confident in my belief that this fight won’t see the final bell. With both fighters having solid power, and the desire to put on an entertaining fight that we frequently see from newcomers to the Octagon, I expect whomever wins this fight to put up a big fantasy score.
The Short Notice Special
Niklas Stolze ($7000)
I’ve been burned by this play in the past, but this time is a much better situation. Stolze was originally slated to fight Mounir Lazzez, who withdrew from the bout sometime Tuesday. Against Lazzez, Stolze was a +170 underdog. Against his new opponent, Jared Gooden ($6800) (0-2 UFC) Stolze is now a -200 favorite.
Fortunately for us, pricing had already come out when the news broke, so we’re getting Stolze at a steep discount. This is the MMA equivalent of the backup running back who’s starter goes down mid-week. Rather than waste your time with a breakdown of the fight, I’m just going to trust in the efficiency of the betting market here. Stolze is a must for cash games, and while likely to be highly owned, is still a solid value for GPPs.
On the other hand, If you’re looking for some leverage Gooden could be a good opportunity at only $6800, since he’s been a very active striker despite losing both of his UFC bouts.
Pictured above: UFC fighter Kai Kamaka
Photo credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
