Top-five middleweight contenders square off — at light heavyweight — on Saturday afternoon in the UFC. It’s another early card, with lineups locking at 1 p.m. Eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Mason Jones ($9,500)
Jones is the largest favorite (-500) on Saturday’s card and also the best projected. The Welsh striker has had an ignominious start to his UFC career, losing a decision in his debut, before being awarded a no contest due to an accidental eye poke last time out. He was originally slated to try that fight again this weekend, but opponent Alan Patrick was forced to withdraw.
Enter UFC newcomer David Onama. Onama stepped in early this week to face Jones, with this bout coming 15 days after his last contest (a first-round knockout victory.) Onama is an impressive prospect himself, with a perfect 8-0 professional record. However, stepping in on less than a week’s notice against Jones isn’t the ideal way to begin his UFC career. Besides the short notice, Onama is considerably smaller, weighing in at 153.5 pounds after having spent much of his pro career at lightweight.
We haven’t really seen it yet from Jones, but this looks to be his time to shine. He’s a -110 favorite to win by KO, as well as -155 to win inside the distance. These fights can sometimes be tricky — the short-notice fighters have little to lose — but I expect Jones to get his first UFC win in impressive fashion. He leads all of our projection models in every category except Points/Salary.
Grant Dawson ($9,300)
Dawson is the other big favorite on the card, checking in at -450. Riding an eight-fight win streak (five of them in the UFC), Dawson is expected to make quick work of an over-matched Ricky Glenn. Glenn is a solid UFC fighter, but he’s alternated wins and losses over his last five. He’s clearly a gatekeeper to bigger and better things for the up-and-coming Dawson.
Dawson is, stylistically, a great choice for DFS lineups. He attempts over three takedowns per round, landing 1.07. Succeeding at more than one takedown per round is a great sign — his opponents have been able to find their way back to their feet, giving Dawson more chances at scoring takedown points. He also throws an above-average number of strikes, furthering his case for DFS.
Dawson has 11 submissions among his 17 pro victories. Glenn only has one submission loss on his record, but Dawson can rack up points even without a finish. He scored 107 points in a decision win over Julian Erosa, landing six takedowns.
Dawson lags a bit behind Jones in our Projections, but I actually prefer him here. I expect him to come in at slightly reduced ownership, and he’s shown an ability to get it done in the Octagon, something we’ve yet to see from Jones. Both are fine plays that will likely be in my lineups, but my lean is Dawson if forced to choose between them.
The Upside Plays
Nick Negumeranu ($9,100)
Negumeranu is a solid -225 favorite in a fight that’s implied as having a 60% chance to end by knockout. He’s finished nine of his 10 professional victories and is taking on an opponent in Ike Villanueva who’s been finished in three of his last four.
All of the variables are aligning for Negumeranu here. He’s a decade younger, has a far better record and is the perfect combination of shorter with a longer reach. This is beneficial because it allows fighters to make a given weight class while carrying more muscle mass, while not giving up the reach that shorter fighters normally do.
We have Negranu sixth in Ceiling Projections, but only four points away from the leader (Jones.) He lags a bit in Median Projections, since Villaneuva does have the power to dispel him early. Even so, I think he’s a fairly safe, high-upside pick here.
The Contrarian Approach
Khama Worthy ($7,400)
Worthy is my best bet for the week and my favorite of the super cheap fighters on the card. He’s not projecting particularly well (mainly due to his poor odds) but Vegas may have this one wrong. Worthy and his opponent Jai Herbert are both riding two-fight losing streaks. h\However, Worthy had two UFC stoppage victories preceding his recent run. Herbert is yet to win a fight inside of the Octagon. Worthy is extremely well-rounded, with nine professional knockouts and three submission wins. Herbert had the better pre-UFC record but has yet to prove he belongs in the Octagon. At Worthy’s budget price, any win probably gets him in the optimal lineup. However, a stoppage instantly makes him the best points-per-dollar play on the slate.
The Swing Fight
Paulo Costa ($7,600) vs. Marvin Vettori ($8,600)
This fight suddenly became a lot more interesting with the move up to light heavyweight. It was reported earlier in the week that Costa was way off track to make 185 pounds and was requesting a change. Potentially a catchweight, this bout ended up jumping up to 205lbs. This feels like a huge advantage for Costa, since Vettori was likely able to make 185 pounds a few days ago.
There’s a lot of angles to consider with the weight change. Primarily, did something happen in Costa’s camp that made him unable to cut the weight? Or was he just never planning on it? The first would obviously be a detriment, but it remains to be seen the reason for the shift. More on the main event from Erich Richter here.
Regardless, we have both men projected in the top three in points per dollar on the slate. With fairly reasonable pricing on both of them, you’ll likely need the winner in tournament lineups. Costa has more power (especially if he’s a weight class bigger), with Vettori being the more well-rounded fighter. On paper, this makes Vettori the better cash game option — he could rack up grappling points. However, with the weight situation, it’s not that easy.
Personally, I think Costa is the play here. It’s more likely that he’s just too big to make 185 pounds than something happened that kept him from making weight. Weight classes exist for a reason, and being 10 or 15 pounds heavier than your opponent is a huge advantage at this level. It’s also reasonable to hedge and go with both fighters in cash lineups — guaranteeing yourself a win.
Good luck everyone.
Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Mason Jones
