Explosive light heavyweights Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker headline UFC Vegas 38 on Saturday. The 12-fight card kicks off at 4 p.m. ET, so make sure you have your lineups in by then.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Santos has our highest Median, and Pts/Sal Projections on the slate. While Santos is only a -155 favorite, this fight is expected to provide fireworks. BetMGM has the odds of a knockout ending this fight as -650 (which converts to over 86%). While both guys have power, Santos is especially impressive. His knockdown rate is three times as high as the divisional average. He doesn’t have an extraordinarily high work rate, but it’s just below the light heavyweight standards.
His opponent Johnny Walker ($7,400) is fairly similar stylistically but is even less active with his striking. This gives Santos an edge with the judges (on the off chance they get involved), but more importantly, it provides a path to much higher fantasy scores. Due to the somewhat low volume of both men, this doesn’t project as a fight where you’d consider using them together.
You almost always want to have exposure to five-round fights, but especially when the odds of a knockout are as high as they are on Saturday — at least in tournaments. Santos is a bit scary for cash games — his floor of 29 is pretty bad considering his salary. Regardless, it’s likely that the winner of this one will come away with a score you need in tournaments. It’s also fairly likely that Santos is the winner, which is why he leads our projections.
Karol Rosa ($9,300)
Rosa trails only Santos in Median Projection but has a higher Floor and Ceiling. She’s the heaviest favorite on the card, at somewhere in the neighborhood of -600 depending on the book. Rosa is riding a five-fight win streak, with two stoppages along the way. She should have no problem with her oppoennt Bethe Correia ($6,900). Correia has one win in her last five contests, and at 38 years old she is certainly on the downside of her career.
Rosa can rack up points in a hurry, throwing an impressive 90+ strikes per round. She’s yet to finish a fight in her UFC career but is still averaging 110 points per fight. While a decision is still the likeliest outcome here, if she’s able to get it done inside the distance, it would likely end up being the highest score on the slate. I genuinely can’t think of a reason to fade Rosa in this one — other than ownership — but we can differentiate elsewhere. Lock her in.
The Upside Plays
Nike Price ($8,400)
Price trails only Rosa in ceiling projection, despite being priced in the middle of the pack. “The Hybrid” is a solid favorite at -200, so he represents a good value as well. This is likely due to the extreme line movement we’ve seen throughout the week — I first saw Price around -130. Price’s upside comes from his ability to finish fights anywhere. He has multiple submission wins in the UFC, to go with four (T)KOs. Those knockouts have been impressive, including wins by upkick, and hammer fists from the bottom. Price’s opponents aren’t safe no matter where the fight goes.
I’m a little nervous about Price in this one (I actually think Alex Oliveira ($7,800) is a better betting value), but the upside is undeniable. My concern is Price’s recent form, he’s 0-2-1 in his last three, including a draw to a fading Donald Cerrone. He’ll need to be better this time out against the scrappy Oleira, but he’s flashed that ability in the past. Therefore, I have my doubts for cash games (although I still might roster him), but I will be all over Price in tournaments.
Misha Cirkunov ($7,600)
Cirkunov has a terrible Median Projection. At 42.9 it’s near the bottom of the slate. However, our models love his ceiling. At 96.5, it’s the highest of any fighter priced under $8,400. His salary also doesn’t make a lot of sense here. He’s only a +125 underdog, which normally would cost a bit more. I haven’t tracked his line this week, but I’m guessing he was a larger dog when lines opened.
Cirkunov has all but one of his UFC wins by submission (the other was ground-and-pound.) He’ll need to get this fight to the mat to have a chance, but I like his odds. Krzysztof Jotko ($8,600) has solid takedown defense, but Cirkunov is by far the stronger man. He’s making his middleweight debut after fighting at light heavyweight up until this point. Jotko doesn’t appear to be an especially large middleweight either.
Cirkunov makes sense in tournaments here. If he can get the fight to the ground he has plenty of ways to score points. I think he’s, in play even in cash games, though I try to get some upside from my salary-savers.
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The Contrarian Approach
Mike Breeden ($6,800)
We’re reaching a bit with this pick, but it’s the “contrarian” section for a reason, so hear me out. Breeden is making his UFC debut and is a +400 underdog to Alexander Hernandez. I don’t know a ton about Breeden, but from looking at his record, the dude has some power. He’s finished eight of his 10 pro wins by knockout. He also missed the lightweight limit by 2.5 pounds on Friday. This isn’t a great career move — Uncle Dana doesn’t like fighters who can’t make weight. On the other hand, we have weight classes for a reason: Being bigger is an advantage. Hernandes is 2-3 in his last five fights, with two of the losses being knockouts. Based on his record, Breeden has a punchers chance at posting easily the best price-considered score on the card.
The Swing Fights
Jamie Mullarkey ($7,500) vs. Devonte Smith ($8,700)
Smith is a solid -165 favorite in this fight, but both guys have legitimate upside. Smith has picked up all three of his UFC wins inside the distance. Two were in the first round, one in the first minute. Even when he loses, as he did to Khama Worthy, it happens quick — Worthy knocked him out in the opening round. Mullarkey works similarly fast. His only win — a knockout against the same Worthy that defeated Smith — took him just 46 seconds.
It’s unlikely that we get much of a feeling-out period here. It’s also likely that whoever wins this one will do so with a lot of scoring. Across their four combined UFC wins, they’ve averaged over 115 DraftKings points. Smith is the better pick on paper, but I think Mullarkey has more value than his price or projections would indicate. Smith is essentially just a striker; he’s secured only one UFC takedown and only one pro win by submission. Mullarkey mixes in a little bit more grappling, landing over a takedown per round in the UFC.
With both fighters being somewhat affordable and +160 odds to go the distance, this fight has a high likelihood of producing a score that ends up in the optimal lineup.
Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Thiago Santos
