Belal Muhammad and Vincent Luque are set to rematch their 2016 bout. That time, Luque won a decisive first-round knockout. This time, the stakes are higher as both men are top-10 welterweights riding long win streaks. The action kicks off at 5:30 p.m. ET from the UFC Apex.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Vicente Luque ($8,500) vs. Belal Muhammad ($7,700)
After a few weeks of lopsided main events (or five-round fights), we finally have a somewhat closer matchup on paper. Luque is the moderate (-180 or so) betting favorite for this one. He’s also the far more appealing DFS option, with far better finishing ability. Luque has stopped four straight opponents, with two submissions and two TKOs.
He hasn’t posted massive scores in any of those contests, though, with the exception of his TKO of Randy Brown (120 points). On a lot of cards, that would be a concern given his moderately high salary, but it shouldn’t be here. Only one fight on the card has odds of -175 or longer to end inside the distance, so the score we’re shooting for this week is lower than usual. There’s also a dearth of high work-rate fighters, so the fights that go to a decision probably won’t produce huge scores. That makes Luque a solid choice in all formats, though his ownership should be fairly high.
Muhammad, on the other hand, won’t be as popular but has a harder path to a big score. He has very little finishing ability, with just two of his 11 UFC wins coming inside the distance. He’s also scored zero knockdowns in his UFC career, so he’d need to finish the solid grappler Luque on the ground.
Most of his upside comes via takedowns, where he’s relentless in his pursuit. His 2.5 attempts per round is more than double the UFC average, though his accuracy (and Luque’s defense) both complicate things. Muhammad’s best path to victory is a fairly boring wall-and-stall, perhaps similar to his strategy against Demian Maia. He scored under 60 DraftKings points despite the win in that fight.
Still, at just $7,700, it’s likely he makes the optimal lineup if he pulls off the upset, especially with lower overall scoring on the card. I don’t think he does pull it off, but I’ll have him in a small percentage of lineups just in case.
The Easy Chalk
Martin Buday ($9,000)
Buday is the favorite in the only fight on the card with heavy stoppage odds. His heavyweight matchup with Chris Barnett ($7,200) is currently -600 to end inside the distance at DraftKings. That almost by default makes him the chalk play here. We probably get a slight discount thanks to this being his debut bout, but most sharper players will be all over Buday.
Buday was very impressive in his Contender Series bout, dispatching Lorenzo Hood through masterful cage control. That should be his plan against Barnett as well, limiting the taekwondo stylist’s ability to pull off flash strikes. He didn’t just hold Hood against the cage, though; he racked up a ton of damage with knees to the legs before finishing him with one to the head.
Those knees likely play a major role against the much shorter Barnett, who at 5’9″ is a drastically undersized heavyweight. Buday is listed at 6’4″, so his knees don’t need to travel far to find Barnett’s head. He should be the better fighter in all facets of this one.
Drakkar Klose ($9,400)
Klose is the heaviest favorite on the slate, with massive line movement heading his way. He opened around -490 but currently sits at -650 on DraftKings. Klose is far more likely to win without making the optimal lineup than he is to lose this fight though. He’s had disappointing scores in each of his UFC wins, failing to top 100 points or pick up a finish in any of them.
That’s acceptable at a lower price point but tougher to justify as the slate’s most expensive fighter. Still, he has decent odds to pick up his first UFC finish this time around, at -115. There are certainly scenarios where Klose finished this fight (particularly by submission) but still misses the optimal though.
Klose is a very strong play for cash games if you have the salary. He trails only Luque and Buday in median projection. However, he’s questionable for GPPs. I’ll mix in some of him, but I prefer to roster a pair of mid-$8,000 fighters rather than spend the salary on Klose and a cheaper option.8,800
The Upside Plays
Jordan Leavitt ($7,900)
“The Monkey King” is a slight underdog for his fight against debuting Trey Ogden ($8,300), who caps himself though at about 60%. Either way, his upside is tremendous, thanks to his relentless hunting for finishes. Seven of his nine professional wins have come by stoppage, including six submissions and a brutal slam of Matt Wiman in his debut.
Ogden is also a grappler, so this one is likely decided in that area one way or the other. While submissions produce less points (generally) than knockouts, that’s ok this time. At just $7,900, any finish from Leavitt should be enough to end up in the optimal lineup.
Ogden has shown a vulnerability to submissions as well, twice being submitted by guillotines against the same opponent. Leavitt has a variety of submission tricks up his sleeve, so it’s not a great sign for Ogden that he’s been caught repeatedly. Leavitt is a strong GPP play and a reasonable cash game salary saver.
Miguel Baeza ($8,700)
“Caramel Thunder” trails only Klose and Buday in terms of stoppage equity while coming in at a reasonable discount. He’s fighting Andre Fiahlo ($7,500) in a contest that looks to be contested strictly standing. Fiahlo attempted zero takedowns despite absorbing over 100 significant strikes in his Octagon debut, while Baeza attempts less than half of a takedown per round.
Baeza has finished all of his UFC wins, doing tons of damage with leg kicks and with plus-power in his hands. (His knockdown rate is more than double the UFC average.) Much of his upside comes from Fiahlo’s total lack of defensive striking though. Fiahlo marched forward relentlessly in his UFC debut but ate over seven strikes per minute.
Baeza also is the far better grappler, should he choose to use it. The ideal scenario might just be Baeza wearing Fiahlo down with strikes, before taking him to the mat and putting him away. Either way, Baeza should control this one, and a finish would send him to the optimal lineup.
The Value Play
Caio Borralho ($7,800)
Borralho has seen betting markets move his way throughout the week. He was +125 when salaries were released but is now down to +110 on DraftKings. While that’s enough to make him a solid value in terms of win equity per dollar, there’s a lot more to like.
Borralho is fighting Gadzhi Omargadzhiev ($8,400) in the co-main event. Both men are recent graduates of the Contender series, with Borralho making two trips (both victories.) While not receiving a contract the first time isn’t a great sign, Borralho redeemed himself in his sophomore outing. He was dominant while fighting up a weight class three weeks after his prior bout.
The fact that he performed well at 205 lbs makes me think he’ll be the bigger, stronger fighter at 185lbs against Omargadzhiev. Omargadzhiev is the classic Russian wrestler. However, Borralho is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who competes at a high level. He’s also the far superior striker. With his four-inch reach advantage, it will be hard for Omargadzhiev to close the distance and even make this a grappling match.
I make Borralho the slight favorite in this one, so getting him at $7,800 feels like a no-brainer. He’ll be in most of my lineups on Saturday.
The Contrarian Approach
William Knight ($7,600)
Knight is facing Devin Clark ($8,500) in a heavyweight contest, though both men normally compete at light heavyweight. (Though Knight missed weight badly in his last attempt on short notice, and Clark has competed at middleweight in the UFC.) Regardless, this is an obvious situation where one fighter (Knight) has almost all of the stoppage equity in the fight.
Knight also has a ridiculous 30-pound weight advantage in this one. Clark weighed in at what appears to be his walking weight of 223, while Knight topped the scales at 251 lbs. (Raising serious questions about how he ever made 205.) That’s essentially a two-weight class difference, which is s significant edge for Knight.
Knight has far superior power to Clark and has better submission grappling. Clark has been tapped three times without recording a submission win of his own. Knight has never been submitted (or won by submission) in his professional career but does compete in high-level grappling contests.
While I don’t expect this one to end with a submission, if it does, it’s likely to come from Knight. Clark is the deserving favorite, though, with far more ability to win minutes and control the fight with his wrestling and cage control. His salary is just a bit too high for his limited upside, making Knight the preferred DFS play.
The Swing Fight
Mounir Lazzez ($8,800) vs. Ange Loosa ($7,400)
This fight came together at the last minute, with Loosa stepping in earlier this week to fight Lazzez. I wanted to highlight this fight because of how it was handled on DraftKings though. Rather than leaving Lazzez — who was an underdog against his original opponent — at his earlier salary, they removed him from the player pool and made him a more appropriate $8,800.
This fight doesn’t have the obvious appeal it would’ve had Lazzez been in the sub $8,000 range, but it’s still worth considering. I’m surprised that Lazzez isn’t more heavily favored, sitting around -180 (and dropping) on Friday. Loosa actually lost his Contender Series fight (a split decision to Jack Della Madalena), which would normally make Lazzez a much longer favorite.
Something feels a bit off, so I’ll hedge my bets and mix in some Loosa lineups. Still, Lazzez seems like one of the stronger plays on the slate. He topped 100 points in a decision win in his UFC debut. He has the work rate to provide value, even if this one makes it all 15 minutes.
Photo Credit: Vicente Luque
Pictured above: Jeff Bottari/Getty Images
