Two top-15 light heavyweights square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, as Johnny Walker meets Jamahal Hill. It will be the first UFC main event for the fast-rising Hill, who has a shot at cracking the top 10 with an impressive win. Lineups lock at 4 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Jamahal Hill ($9,000) vs. Johnny Walker ($7,200)
Hill and Walker are both explosive strikers with big power. That gives us a situation where — unlike the last two weeks — you’ll almost certainly need the winner in your lineup. This fight is -450 to finish inside the distance at DraftKings, so a stoppage is almost assured. Neither man has so much as attempted a takedown in their UFC careers (12 combined fights). Standup battles generally produce more points as well.
The only possible way that the winner here doesn’t end up in the optimal lineup is if Hill wins a relatively slow-paced fight. There would also be a higher number of overall stoppages on the card in that scenario. It’s not particularly likely though. Hill only has one decision in his UFC career, and he scored 71 points in three rounds. With this fight being five, that puts him at a 100-plus point pace.
Picking which of these fighters emerges victorious is thus the real decision we have to make. Hill is a significant betting favorite, at -240 or so. However, this is a definite step up in competition for the relatively inexperienced Hill. It’s also the first time Hill is fighting someone with more than an inch in reach advantage over him. Walker doesn’t use his length particularly well, but Hill is at his best when he stays just out of his opponent’s range. That’s not really possible here.
Still, Hill is very rightly the favorite here, and leads our pts/sal projection. I expect the professors at touch ’em up university to come up with a solid game plan on dealing with Walker’s reach. Hill is probably the best pure boxer in the UFC right now, and should control the range and pace of the fight with his footwork.
I’d still like to be overweight on Walker if multi-entering though. At his salary, any win would surely place him in the optimal lineup. The ownership on Walker should also be exceedingly low, so getting a win from him provides a ton of leverage. When both fighters are content to contest a bout strictly on their feet, variance tends to run a bit higher. I’ve seen lucky punches before — but I’ve never seen a lucky heel hook. I’ll be looking to mix Walker in about 40% of my lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Jonathan Pearce ($9,300)
After starting his UFC with a loss, “JSP” has won his last two bouts, both of them inside the distance. Encouragingly, that includes win by both knockout and a submission. Wrestling is definitively his strength, though — the knockout win was via ground and pound. Since his debut loss, Pearce has gone 11 for 18 on takedowns in only four rounds. That takedown-heavy approach is perfect for fantasy scoring, leading to more than 120 points in each of his last outings.
This time, he’s taking on UFC newcomer Christian Rodriguez ($6,900). Rodriguez is a 7-0 prospect who won his Contender Series bout in October. I was impressed by Rodriguez’s takedown defense in that fight, but his opponent is nowhere near the caliber of wrestler that Pearce is. Rodriguez may very well have the striking edge here, but it will be a challenge for him to find out while he fends off takedowns.
Rodriguez is worth a slight look here, as he probably has a better shot at winning than his +290 or so odds imply. He did enough to stop a lesser wrestler’s takedowns, but that doesn’t mean he can’t do it against Pearce. (It’s just not evidence that he can.) Still, the most likely outcome is that Pearce puts up a big score via relentless takedowns, so I’ll want to have exposure to him. Pearce leads our median and ceiling projections on the card.
Parker Porter ($8,900)
Porter is a heavy favorite as he takes on Alan Baudot ($7,300) in what Sean Zerillo would lovingly deem a “non-UFC-caliber” fight. At the very least, Baudot is a non-UFC-caliber fighter who’s worthiness of the promotion is questionable. Prior to his UFC debut, Baudot hadn’t fought in more than 18 months, with his last win coming by disqualification. He’s officially 0-1-1 in the UFC, but only because his knockout loss to Rodrigo Nascimento was later overturned.
Porter is far from a title challenger, but he’s solidly UFC level. He’s won both of his last two fights by decision, with a 2-1 overall UFC record. Porter is unique for a heavyweight in his work rate. He attempts 89 strikes per round, which is more than double the UFC average for all fighters. Those numbers are usually inversely correlated with weight, making Porter an anomaly among the big boys.
Porter also mixes in the occasional takedown, which should be particularly valuable against Baudot — a Jiu-Jitsu white belt. That combined activity is how he’s been able to go over 100 fantasy points in consecutive decision wins. He shouldn’t have too much trouble at least approaching that number this time, with a decent shot at securing a finish. He’s currently +110 to finish it before the final bell on DraftKings.
All of that makes Porter as close to a lock as we have on this slate. Barring an errant shot from Baudot getting through, the worst case scenario is a somewhat disappointing decision win. That should still see Porter finish near 100 points given his usual output. With the upside for much more he has this time, he’s hard to fade. He trails only Pearce and Hill in median projection in our
The Upside Plays
David Onama ($8,400)
Onama is taking on Gabriel Benitez ($7,800) in a bout with fight of the night written all over it. The lightweights combine for the second-highest output of any fight on the card, trailing only Porter-Baudot. (That fight is entirely driven by Porter’s pace; Baudot attempts a slightly below-average volume of strikes.) Neither Onama nor Benitez is likely to turn this into a grappling match either, with limited takedown attempts throughout their UFC careers.
Onama is the moderate favorite here, as he looks to notch his first UFC win. He lost his debut to highly touted Welsh prospect Mason Jones, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Prior to that, he was 8-0 as a professional, with six first-round and two second-round stoppages.
Benitez is trending in the other direction. The veteran was 5-2 before his recent run, which has seen him drop three of his last four contests. The lone win came against Justin Jaynes, who has since been cut from the UFC after his own 0-4 skid. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the 33-year-old Benitez’s ability to right the ship at this point in his career.
Onama would be a much heavier favorite it we’d seen a UFC win from him, but that makes it the perfect time to buy low. Given his high-action style, he should also be able to put up a big score if he wins this bout. At just $8,400, he has a higher ceiling projection in our models than any fighter priced under $8,900. Given his lack of UFC success so far he’s slightly risky, but he’s a perfect GPP play.
Joaquin Buckley ($8,300)
Buckley checks all the boxes for his bout against Abdul Razak Alhassan ($7,800). The explosive middleweight has secured all three of his UFC victories by way of knockout. He’s taking on a fighter in Alhassan who’s more than happy to stand and trade, having landed only two takedowns in his nine fight UFC career.
Buckley is also favored here, with -165 overall odds and even money (+100) to win by knockout. Further, he has a three-inch reach advantage at the same height as Alhassan. A longer reach but the same (or shorter) height is an advantage for MMA. Fighters who are both taller and longer can’t pack on as much muscle and still make a given weight class. Longer limbs confers all the benefits of height, but without (as much) or a strength deficit.
With both of these fighter suffering knockout losses in recent fights, it’s pretty likely that one or the other puts up a big score here. Our models — and the betting markets — like it to be Buckley. Before a somewhat fluky head-kick victory over Allesio Di Chirico in his last bout, Alhassan was on a three-fight skid and looked to be on his way out of the UFC. Look for Buckley to point him back toward that door.
The Value Play
Diana Belbita ($8,200)
Rostering female fighters is usually a trade off between activity rate and stoppage ability. Taken as a whole, female fighters throw more strikes than the men (of any size), but finish fights at a far lower rate. That makes them tricky for DFS — especially tournaments — since it makes their ceiling relatively lower.
For that reason, I tend to avoid rostering expensive female fighters, since they have a harder time paying off expensive salaries. That’s the benefit to Belbita though. At only $8,200, “The Warrior Princess” can be a positive in your lineup without finishing her fight.
She does bring solid power though. While she wasn’t able to finish the fight, she dropped Hanah Goldy in the opening round of her last bout. When you couple that with her 70 attempted strikes per round (second-highest on the card) she’s in a good position to rack up fantasy points.
She just needs to get through Gloria de Paula ($8,000) to do so. “Glorinha” is 5-4 as a professional fighter, and 0-2 in the UFC. Cheyanne Vlismas knocked her out in her last bout. I haven’t seen anything from de Paula to suggest she belongs in the UFC, and Belbita could prove it with a big win.
Line movement is also on the side of Belbita. She was -105 earlier in the week, but -120 or longer as of Friday afternoon. That suggests that sharp money is coming in on Belbita. It also means we’re getting a little extra win equity for our DFS dollar. Had she opened at her current odds, she would probably cost a couple extra hundred dollars. That makes her a value play in the most literal sense. Combined with her upside, she’s a very strong play here.
The Contrarian Approach
Jesse Strader ($7,100)
Strader logged less than two minutes of cage time in his UFC debut last March. It was cut short by a knockout loss to Montel Jackson before we got to see much from Strader. This time, he’s taking on UFC newcomer Chad Anheliger ($9,100) who punched his ticket to the UFC via a split decision win in a Contender Series bout.
Anheliger had some positive moments in his Contender Series fight, but put himself in trouble on numerous occasions. He was both mounted and had his back taken on a few occasions. Strader hasn’t shown a ton of grappling prowess as a professional, but he’s at worst even with Anhelinger in that regard.
Anhelinger likely needs to win the standup exchanges to have much of a chance then. Betting markets have him priced as if that’s a foregone conclusion. I’m not so sure that should be the case though. Strader is 5-2 as a professional with four knockout wins. He’s been knocked out twice as well, but those came against Marcelo Rojo and Montel Jackson — no shame in that.
The nice thing about Strader’s price point is that a win almost guarantees that he ends up in the optimal lineup by the end of the night. To get a win, he just needs to dispatch a 35-year-old making his UFC debut following a relatively unconvincing Contender Series performance. That’s not too big of an ask, so Strader deserves a look in your lineups.
The Swing Fight
We’ve already covered the three closest fights by salary on the card. I’m fine with a full fade of Onama and Belbita’s opponents. Neither fighter (Beinitez or de Paula) has a particularly fantasy-friendly style, so even if they pull off the upset it’s hard to see them landing in the winning lineup. Alhassan is a different story though. He has tremendous power in what should be a standup war.
Outside of that, the only fight in which I’m interested in both fighters is the main event. It’s generally favorable to be overweight on the underdog, and this fight is no different. Walker presents an interesting challenge for Hill, and would likely need to knock him out to win this one.
Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Pictured above: Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill
