Tom Aspinall gets his first top billing as the UFC returns to his home country of England for fight night. Aspinall is taking on Russian contender Alexander Volkov in a bout with title fight implications. This card also features the hotly anticipated return of Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett to the Octagon. This one kicks off at 1:30 PM ET, so be sure to get lineups ready early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Tom Aspinall ($8,300) vs. Alexander Volkov ($7,900)
After a string of lopsided main events, we have a close one between Volkov and England’s Aspinall. Aspinall is a slight favorite in his first five-round contest. Our projections like him, too, giving him a slight edge in both median and ceiling projections.
Thanks to the reasonable salaries, though, it seems very likely the winner of this one makes it to the optimal lineup. Aspinall will be looking to finish this one early, as he’s won all of his fights inside the first six minutes of action. (Both of his losses came when fights went past that mark.) For a fighter who’s never even seen the third round, 25 minutes is a long time. Aspinall needs to try to end this one quickly, which would produce a solid fantasy score.
Volkov, on the other hand, has more of a chance at “winning boring.” However, at only $7,900, he doesn’t need to do much to post one of the best Pts/Sal scores with a win. He has below-average power for the division, but his 50 attempted strikes per round should add up over time.
For cash games, I’ll be jamming in both guys. I almost always regret it when I stray from this strategy. This fight looks to be close enough that I’d rather take the guaranteed win than try to take a stand here.
For tournaments, I’ll have a rule to include one or the other in every lineup. I don’t think this is one where rostering both guys makes sense for tournaments though. Aspinall likely either gets an early finish or ends up with a disappointing score. I want to be overweight on Volkov, though. He gives you more flexibility from a salary standpoint and should come in lower owned.
The Easy Chalk
Paddy Pimblett ($9,400)
“The Baddy” is the biggest favorite on the card at -590 for his bout with Kazula Vargas ($6,800). Pimblett’s line was -490 when DraftKings released salaries, though, so if anything, the Liverpudlian is a value play this week. Regardless, he leads our projections for both median and ceiling.
It’s hard to see how he fails here. The UFC is obviously heavily invested in the young prospect, essentially handpicking Vargas for Pimblett’s homecoming bout. Pimblett was also impressive in his UFC debut, throwing over 80 strikes and attempting a pair of takedowns all in one round of action. His frenetic style is perfect for DFS and should lead to another big score here.
He’s my favorite of all the higher-priced fighters, even with the steep ownership he should carry. I can see a case for mixing in a Vargas lineup or two since the veteran has never been knocked out and likely has a punchers chance. Still, we’ll likely all be talking about Pimblett’s performance come Sunday morning.
Sergey Pavlovich ($9,000)
Pavlovich is returning to action after a 2+ year layoff against Shamil Abdurakhimov ($7,200). Shamil is certainly in the twilight of his career, at age 40 and coming off of consecutive knockout losses. Fighter’s chins don’t generally improve as they age and take more damage. They definitely don’t improve when facing Pavlovich, who is 2-1 in the UFC with both wins first-round knockouts.
While the layoff is somewhat scary, the opponent couldn’t be much better. Pavlovich is a heavy (-320) favorite for a reason. This bout is also -500 to end inside the distance. That likely means another knockout win for Pavlovich, with a high DFS score to go with it.
He’s priced just behind Pimblett in median and ceiling projections. I’d expect him to come in at somewhat lower ownership too, mainly thanks to the name recognition behind Pimblett. He also leads our projections in Pts/Sal, despite his somewhat high price.
The Upside Plays
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,100)
Mokaev is a bit of an unknown coming into this one. His bout with Cody Durden ($7,100) kicks off Saturday’s festivities, with Mokaev as a -380 favorite. The Dagestani transplant is 5-0 in professional MMA following an extremely successful career as an amateur wrestler.
How well those takedowns translate to MMA will be the question here. “Dagestani wrestling champ” is usually a fairly safe bet, but Durden showed solid takedown defense against Aoriqileng his last time out, stopping two of three. Still, Mokaev should be able to find success here.
The dream scenario, of course, is that he either puts Durden away early, or Durden is able to scramble back to his feet and get taken down again. Mokaev appears to have solid finishing ability, with three submissions (one due to strikes) in his five professional wins.
Mokaev will almost certainly be less popular than Pimblett — and probably Pavlovich and Ilia Topuria ($9,200) — among the heavy favorites on the card. That gives us some leverage if we’re willing to accept the risk on a debuting 21-year-old prospect. He ranks just behind those three in ceiling projection.
Paul Craig ($7,500)
Craig stands out in our models with an almost 50-point discrepancy between his median and ceiling projection. Craig fights like he’s made dinner plans, with four consecutive first-round victories. (He has a split decision draw with Shogun Rua mixed in as well.) Each of his professional wins have come inside the distance, and this one should be no different if he pulls it out.
Craig is an aggressive grappler. He attempts over two takedowns per round. Additionally, he showed a willingness to drag his opponent down on top of him if the takedowns aren’t working in his last bout against Jamahal Hill. Of course, that’s a risky way to fight. If you’re unable to lock up a submission, you’re losing the round with your opponent on top of you (and potentially taking damage along the way).
Still, he’s one of the best submission artists in the UFC, and I’m expecting him to showcase it again on Saturday. He’s an underdog, but Sean Zerillo and I both like him to win this one; as we discussed on the Action Network UFC preview podcast, Sean even suggested that Krylov might try some takedowns of his own, which would be tremendous for Paul.
He’s a bit scary for cash games, but I’ll have a ton of him in GPPs.
The Value Play
Jack Shore ($7,600)
Shore is the cheapest fighter in our models with at least a 50-point median projection. He’s a slight underdog against Timur Valiev ($8,600) but stands out as underpriced for this one. Shore opened at +110 but has since dropped to even money on DraftKings.
I even make him as a slight favorite for this one. While both he and Valiev are technically undefeated in the UFC, Valiev was knocked out in his UFC debut before the bout was overturned due to a failed drug test. While Shore hasn’t shown much power in the UFC, he picked up three wins via knockout on his feet when fighting for Cage Warriors.
This one probably comes down to who has the better grappling, though. Both Shore and Valiev attempt takedowns at an above-average rate and do their best work on the ground. Good takedown offense doesn’t always mean good takedown defense, though. Valiev was taken down by Trevin Jones on two attempts in their bout and hasn’t faced one since.
Shore is likely to change that, though, as he’s attempted at least one takedown in every round he’s fought in the UFC. His four-inch reach edge also gives him the first-mover advantage for takedowns. Longer arms should let him shoot from farther away than Valiev, who has to find a way inside before he tries his own.
Shore is too cheap for his betting odds, and I think he’s a value even at that line. Therefore he’s my favorite cheap play on the card, particularly for cash games.
The Contrarian Approach
Jai Herbert ($6,900)
“The Black Country Banger” is one of the biggest underdogs on the card, as he takes on undefeated Ilia Topuria ($9,300) in Topuria’s lightweight debut. Herbert has lived up to his nickname so far, though, scoring two knockdowns in only six rounds of UFC action.
While Topuria is deservedly the favorite here, Herbert has a decent punchers chance in this one. Topuria was a massive featherweight, but it’s always interesting to see how fighter’s chins hold up at heavier weight classes. Topuria is also very short for a lightweight at 5’7″ with a 69″ reach. Herbert stands 6’1″ with a 77″ reach. That will make it tough for Topuria to get inside and land takedowns. While he probably figures it out, that should give Herbert at least a few chances to land the fight-ending blow.
At $6,900 and very low probable ownership, that’s more than enough to make him a +EV play. I won’t have a ton of him, but mixing him in gives you the salary freedom and the leverage to fit the expensive chalky fighters.
The Swing Fights
Molly McCann ($8,400) vs. Luana Carolina ($7,800)
McCann and Carolina looks to be one of the closest fights on the card, with Carolina a +120 underdog. This fight sticks out from a DFS standpoint, thanks to the work rates of both fighters, though. The pair each attempt over 50 strikes per round, which is well above the UFC average. McCann mixes in an additional 1.7 takedown attempts, giving her more paths to stacking up points.
The drawback, of course, is that at +225 to finish, this one likely goes the distance. That’s not a bad thing for cash games, though. Carolina, in particular as the underdog, would benefit from 15 minutes to pick up points that aren’t reliant on a win. For cash games, I prefer my cheap fighters to have longer stoppage odds. Since we aren’t rostering them expecting to get win points, we want more time in the cage.
I prefer McCann on the tournament side of things, though. She’s shown more stoppage upside throughout her career. She also has the benefit of the notoriously biased British judges on her side. It’s quite possible she gets handed a win here if this goes to the scorecards.
With female fighters generally coming in at an ownership discount, nailing one of those two bouts could be a big edge for GPPs. There are only 12 fights on the card, so differentiating is slightly harder than usual.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Getty Images
Pictured above: Volkov and Aspinall
