For the second straight week, heavyweights take center stage at UFC Fight Night: Columbus. The main event features Chris Daukaus against Curtis “Razor” Blaydes, as both men look to climb back towards title contention after recent losses to Derrick Lewis. This one kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Curtis Blaydes ($9,200) vs. Chris Daukaus ($7,000)
Both Blaydes and Daukaus had a four-fight winning streak snapped by Derrick Lewis knockouts, but have looked fairly untouchable since. Stylistically, at first glance, this is a wrestler (Blaydes) against a striker (Daukaus). Blaydes averages a ridiculous six-plus takedowns per 15 minutes, while all of Daukaus’ wins in the Octagon have been knockouts.
It’s not quite that simple, though. Blaydes has solid striking, though his power (standing) leaves something to be desired by heavyweight standards. Daukaus is also a BJJ black belt and a high-level one at that. That makes this fight not as simple as “Blaydes wins on the ground, Daukaus wins standing.”
I prefer the upside of Daukaus here, at least for GPPs. He certainly has more ways to finish this fight, and at $7,000, we don’t need quite so high of a score. Blaydes looked somewhat tentative in his first fight following the Lewis KO. It’s possible — if not probable — that a Blaydes win could still be a disappointing GPP score.
Therefore, I’ll be going overweight on Daukaus, though mixing in a Blaydes lineup or two as well. On the cash game side, this is a fairly obvious play both guys scenario. Both fighters could have reasonable scores in a loss, with Blaydes racking up takedowns before getting stopped, or Daukaus accumulating striking points over a five-round decision loss. I’m not entirely confident in either fighter, so I’ll take the guaranteed win from one of them.
Blaydes is our best projected fighter in every category, while Daukaus has a strong Pts/Sal relative to the other value plays.
The Easy Chalk
Aliaskhab Khizriev ($9,300)
Denis Tiuliulin ($6,900) is stepping in on somewhat short notice, as apparently nobody was willing to fight Khizriev after his original opponent withdrew. Khizriev is an undefeated (13-0) Russian prospect, who won his contender series bout in less than a minute.
To be honest, I don’t know a ton about either fighter. However, Khizriev is a -850 favorite, with -360 odds to win inside the distance. $9,300 is too cheap for those lines. (The slate’s most expensive fighter, Manon Fiorot ($9,400) is -475 to win and +200 to get a stoppage.)Khizriev ranks just behind Blaydes in every projection category.
He will certainly be popular, but for good reason. (Though we might see a slight ownership discount due to his late addition to the player pool.) If building lineups without him, taking a stab at Tiuliuin makes a certain bit of sense. We want to maximize our leverage if and when the slate’s chalkiest fighter fails. Any lineup I build without Khizriev will have Tiuliulin, but I don’t plan on building many of those.
The Upside Plays
Viacheslav Borshchev ($8,700)
The wonderfully nicknamed Borshchev (“Slava Claus”) is taking on Marc Diakese ($7,500) to open the main card on Saturday. Slava Claus is also our cheapest fighter with a ceiling projection of at least 100-points.
He’s only a moderate (-150) favorite, but the vast majority of his win condition comes via stoppage. He made quick work of his opponent in his UFC debut with a first-round knockout and has finished five of his six professional wins. Furthermore, Diakese is only 2-5 in his UFC career. He has been durable though, losing only two of those before the final bell.
Still, Borshchev’s power stands out on a card with a limited number of fights expected to end early. He’s not the safest play given his one-fight UFC sample, so I’ll be avoiding him for cash games. I’m loading up on him for tournaments though.
Ilir Latifi ($8,600)
I’m not particularly excited about Latifi, who’s lost three of his last four and not finished an opponent in four years. What I am excited about though, is fading a 44-year old heavyweight who’s been knocked out twice in his last three fights. That’s Latifi’s opponent, Russian Aleksei Olenik ($7,600).
This fight is eerily reminiscent of last week’s contest between Sergei Pavlovich and Shamil Abdurakhimov, in which the 40+ year old Abdurakhimov was finished inside the first round. Latifi doesn’t have the same kind of power as Pavlovich, but he should still have enough.
It’s rare to see fighter’s chins improve with age, especially at heavyweight. That’s enough for me to build around Latifi, who should be able to finish this fight at some point. Fortunately, at only $8,600 he also wouldn’t wreck your lineup with a decision win. I touched on this fight in the latest episode of our UFC Podcast:
The Value Play
Karol Rosa ($8,900)
Rosa is another play based on fading an aging opponent, as she takes on WMMA pioneer Sara McMann ($7,300). McMann has lost three of her last four bouts — all by submission — and is on the wrong side of 40.
Rosa is undefeated in her four-fight UFC career, though each victory came by decision. Her odds of finding a finish are better here though. McMann won a silver medal in Olympic wrestling, and will certainly be looking to find takedowns. We’ve seen her submission defense be a problem as of late though, which Rosa could certainly take advantage of.
Rosa should also rack up points while the fight stays standing, with a slate-leading 87 strikes thrown per round. That combination of high volume and -200 odds makes Rosa a fairly safe choice for cash games, with reasonable upside if she can end the fight early.
Additionally, her ownership should be on the lower side. Sean Zerillo brought it up on the podcast, but female fights tend to go overlooked for DFS contests. Rosa trails only Blaydes and Khizriev in ceiling and Pts/Sal projections in our models.
The Contrarian Approach
Kai Kara-France ($7,100)
“Don’t Blink” is my favorite underdog on the card, with a detailed explanation of why available in my betting guide for the fight. He’s also an extremely DFS-friendly fighter, with a style that lends itself to big scores. He’s taking on Askar Askarov ($9,100) in what feels like a No. 1 contender bout for the flyweight title.
Kara-France is mostly a striker, and will have to fend off continued takedown attempts from the relentless Askarov. However, we’ve seen Kara-France excel at doing just that in the past, with 87% takedown defense. We’ve also seen Askarov struggle to maintain position if he does get the takedown.
That should give Kara-France plenty of time to do what he dos best: throw bombs. Kara-France scores a knockdown roughly once per three rounds on average in his UFC career and has won consecutive bouts in the first round. He also throws a ton of volume, attempting 65 strikes per round.
My big concern with Kara-France is actually that he gets sloppy with his striking, as he’s been known to do in the past. Askarov seems to be improving in that area, and could capitalize if Kara-France gets wild. Still, at only $7,100 that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Askarov is yet to score a stoppage in four UFC fights, and Kara-France hasn’t been knocked out since 2013.
I’m anticipating high ownership on Askarov, who’s seen his betting line move from -305 to -425. Normally that’s a bad sign for the opposite fighter, but the leverage we get from Kara-France makes it worth it. He’ll be in most of my GPP lineups.
The Swing Fight
Batgerel Danaa ($8,500) vs. Chris Gutierrez ($7,700)
Leg kick master Gutierrez faces a stiff test in Batgerel, who has three straight first-round knockout victories. This bout promises violence, with both fighters attempting less than half of a takedown per round. We like standup wars for DFS, though picking which bantamweight to back is somewhat trickier.
Batgerel is extremely aggressive, relentlessly pressing forward with strikes in pursuit of knockouts. Gutierrez is the more measured fighter, preferring to sit back and snipe at his opponents — usually with leg kicks. That will be somewhat difficult against the aggressive Batgerel though.
Moving forward and closing space is the best way to prevent a kick-heavy opponent from using his best weapons. Batgerel also has a three-inch reach edge, despite being the shorter fighter. That looks like a rough combination for Gutierrez — though he does have superior leg reach.
This fight should favor Batgerel early, but with an edge for Gutierrez if he can hang on. While there isn’t much evidence to doubt Batgerel’s cardio, leg kicks have a way of adding up over time. Especially if they can limit his movement, that will allow Gutierrez to get his striking going as the fight goes on.
Either way, I want a lot of exposure to this fight. The combination of -125 stoppage odds and high activity rate should produce points for somebody. I’ll be slightly heavier on the favored Batgerel though. since he’s likeliest to win early, the upside is higher on him than Gutierrez, even relative to their prices.
Still, Gutierrez is reasonably cheap, so a high-action decision win could see him in the optimal lineup as well.
Photo Credit: Mike Roach/Getty Images
Pictured above: Curtis Blaydes
