UFC Vegas has a condensed 10-fight card, headlined by Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont in featherweight action. We have a 4:30 p.m. ET start time for this one, so be sure to get your lineups situated early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Ludovit Klein ($9,200)
What is there to be said about Ludovit Klein that hasn’t already been said? Just kidding, nobody has heard of him. Regardless, he’s our top projected fighter for this card, leading in Median and Ceiling projections. Klein is matched up with the scrappy Nate Landwehr and is currently a -400 favorite. He’s also -125 to win by (T)KO, leading to his high ceiling projections.
Landwehr is 1-2 in the UFC, with both of his defeats coming by way of knockout (to quote Bruce Buffer.) Klein had won four straight by knockout (three via head kicks), before losing a decision in his sophomore UFC outing. It’s hard to analyze either fighter’s data much, owing to their limited UFC fights and the brevity of most of them (three of their five combined UFC bouts ended in the first round.)
However, Landwehr has never so much as attempted a takedown in the UFC. Standing in front of a guy who’s spent most of his adult life kicking heads off shoulders doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Klein is younger, has a better record, and also has a longer reach despite being shorter (my favorite sneaky trend.) This is a clear mismatch in his favor, and he belongs in all your lineups.
Aspen Ladd ($8,400)
I expect Ladd to be chalky this week, mainly thanks to her projections. She trails only Klein in Median projection at a way cheaper price and leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
However, I’m not so sure that she should be. She was originally slated to fight two weeks ago at 135 pounds. As she so often does, she missed weight. This time though, the fight was cancelled (mainly due to her appearing to be struggling physically.) This fight is up at 145 pounds, which she was able to make.
However, it’s not that simple. Fighters carefully prepare to be at their best at a specific time (we call this “peaking”), both in terms of optimal performance and weight management, The process usually begins months before the bout. Moving a fight back two weeks throws a wrench in this process. I’m not sure if Ladd tried to train aggressively between the fights, or just tried to stay healthy and keep her cardio up, but it’s a bigger ask than one might realize. Especially when facing an opponent originally fighting on this card.
I also have doubts about how easy the transition to 145 pounds will be. She was a big Bantamweight of course, but I suspect she’ll be on the smaller side at featherweight. It’s also tricky from a cardio standpoint — all of a sudden she’s trying to fuel a bigger body.
With all of that said, she’s still a -135 or so favorite. I’m mostly a believer in efficient markets, so at $8,400 in a five-round fight, the value makes sense. I’d still approach this one carefully, especially if the line drops as we approach lineup lock.
The Upside Plays
Manon Fiorot ($8,900)
Fiorot trails only Klein in Ceiling Projection this week. She’s opened her UFC career with two straight knockout victories and only has one decision win on her 7-1 record. The average knockdowns rate (per round) for 125-pound women is roughly .03. Fiorot is at .25 in her brief UFC career. She brings a level of power to the division that we rarely see.
Her opponent, Mayra Bueno Silva ($7,300) is mostly a grappler. She’s won five of her seven professional victories by submission. However, Silva is yet to land a takedown in her UFC career. Since I doubt Fiorot has any interest in bringing this to the ground, that will need to change for Silva.
Most female fighters attempt a much larger volume of strikes than the men (for a variety of reasons, which we can discuss another time.) Generally, the fantasy tradeoff is that they have significantly lower knockout equity. That’s not the case with Fiorot, making her a great play this week.
The Contrarian Approach
Norma Dumont ($7,800)
I covered most of why I’m leaning toward Dumont in the section above, but I’m a big fan of Dumont for DFS this week. She projects almost as well as Ladd, with the slate’s fifth-highest median projection. I don’t need to belabor the point here, but Dumont makes a lot of sense. She’s also a narrower underdog than the fighters priced around her, which is especially appealing given that she also has two extra rounds to work with. I like Dumont for all formats this week.
The Swing Fight
Andrei Arlovski ($8,200) vs Carlos Felipe ($8,000)
Betting markets have this as the closest fight on the card, with Arloski a -120 underdog. Anytime we have a tight matchup between heavyweight strikers, we need to pay attention.
Unfortunately, this bout is -190 to make it to a decision, so don’t expect the usual big-boy fireworks. That line is a bit puzzling, considering Arlovski has only attempted six takedowns in his last 14 fights, and Felipe only has one in his four-fight UFC career. You’d think men this large swinging at each other’s heads would be settled in less than 15 minutes, but here we are.
Neither man has shown much power, at least not lately in Arlovski’s case. Andrei hasn’t won a fight inside the distance since 2015, Felipe never has in the UFC. Even so, I think there’s a greater chance of a stoppage than betting markets imply.
Largely due to the chance that Arlovski — a 42-year-old, 51-fight veteran with 11 KO losses to his name — finds out that his chin is gone all of a sudden. Arlovski’s poor chin was actually a running joke in the middle of the last decade when he lost three of four bouts between Strikeforce and Affliction by first-round KO.
Due to the above, I’m leaning Felipe here. However, Arlovski has seen a career resurgence as of late, winning three of his last four (and staying conscious in 12 of his last 13.) Both men are worthy of consideration this week, but neither are clear standouts. Our projections are split, as both are within 1.5 points of each other.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Ludovit Klein
