The UFC’s return to Canada features a 14-fight card with a couple of noteworthy quirks for DFS. First, the co-main event is scheduled for five rounds, as well as the main event, which has a huge impact on strategy. Second, only five of the 14 fights are scheduled to end inside the distance.
That makes finding upside challenging, but everyone is operating with the same player pool.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Brandon Moreno ($8,500) vs. Amir Albazi ($7,700)
The main event this week is the rescheduling of a fight originally booked for February that had to be scrapped due to a neck injury suffered by Albazi. Instead, the former champion Moreno took on Brandon Royval that night and dropped his second straight split decision after losing the belt in a similar fashion.
The last time we saw Albazi, he was on the right side of a controversial split decision against Kai Kara-France. Kara-France outstruck Albazi 99-43 in significant strikes, but Albazi still convinced two of the three judges to name him the winner.
From a DFS standpoint, Moreno is the far better per-minute fighter. He averages more significant strikes and takedowns per minute than Albazi and has proven he has the cardio to keep that pace across five rounds. The one thing the judges agreed on in Albazi’s loss to Kara-France (his only career five-round fight) was that Albazi lost the late rounds.
There’s an argument that Albazi is the better finisher, with stoppages in three of five UFC wins. That’s a bit misleading, though, as they came against lesser competition. Moreno has plenty of finishing upside of his own — though neither man has ever been stopped.
Either way, Moreno is the better on-paper play here. Both fighters have broderline-elite defense, so on a card with two five-rounders I’m not sure we need to stack this for cash games. It might not be a GPP priority either, but I’ll have more of the former champ in tournaments.
Co-Main Event
Erin Blanchfield ($8,400) vs. Rose Namajunas ($7,800)
The other five-round fight is, of course, the co-main event, with another former champion (Namajunas) taking on an exciting flyweight prospect in Blanchfield.
Blanchfield won her first six UFC bouts and was probably one fight from a title shot when she lost to Manon Fiorot this February. Now, she’s a slight favorite as she looks to build back up to the top of the rankings.
Just 25, Blanchfield struggled with the physicality of the much stronger Fiorot in that fight. Namajunas spent the bulk of her career at strawweight, so that’s unlikely to be an issue here.
Like the men’s flyweight fight, Blanchfield has considerably better stats on a per-minute basis, averaging two takedowns per 15 minutes and nearly 5.5 significant strikes per minute. The strikes might be hard to find against the craft Namajunas and her 64% defense rate, but the takedowns likely won’t be.
“Thug Rose” has been put on the mat by lesser grapplers on many occasions, and Blanchfield has had six months to continue to improve after her first UFC loss. I’ll be on Blanchfield heavily here for GPPs.
This is my preferred cash stack this week. Not only are both fighters a bit more active on a per-minute basis than the men, but it has longer odds at -298 to go the full 25 minutes.
The Easy Chalk
Mike Malott ($9,200)
It’s a weird week at the top of the salary scale. Just two of the 14 fights on the card feature fighters priced at $9,000 or higher and most of the fights on the card have fairly close moneyline odds.
Both of those fights have seen the favorite’s moneyline odds grow longer throughout the week, making them both arguably underpriced. That includes Malott, whose line has moved from -265 earlier in the week to -310 for his bout against Trevin Giles ($7,000).
Malott started his UFC career 3-0, then was given a big step up against Neil Magny the last time the UFC came to Canada. Malott looked great for the first two rounds of that one but was knocked out with just 15 seconds left.
Giles is a much easier opponent, with a 2-4 record in his last six fights and all the losses by finish. This is a get-right spot for Malott, with a salary that makes him fairly easy to afford.
The Upside Play
Youssef Zalal ($9,100)
Youssef Zalal has also seen heavy line movement this week. Like Malott, he was around -265 when salaries were released but has lines as long as -350 by Friday.
Zalal went 3-3 in his first stint in the UFC before getting bounced from the promotion. Since then, he’s won five straight, all by finish, including both of his fights since rejoining the promotion.
He brings plenty of grappling upside with over two takedowns per 15 minutes, and his upside case is that he’ll use it against Jack Shore ($7,100). Shore is a strong offensive grappler in his own right but has struggled to fight off his back when opponents bring the grappling to him.
I’m a bit surprised to see Shore and his 6-2 UFC record come in as such a heavy underdog, but if you’re trusting the market here, Zalal is an excellent play.
The Value Play
Garret Armfield ($7,600)
We’re spoiled for choice in terms of value plays this week, with plenty of underdogs seeing solid line movement and the majority of the fights on the card favored to go to the judges.
Armfield might be the best combination of both factors. He’s just a +110 underdog against Sirhey Sidey ($8,600) in a fight that’s -160 to go the distance. Armfield averages more than five significant strikes per minute in the UFC, with two knockdowns in his four fights.
He has a massive grappling hole in his game, but that’s unlikely to be exploited by Sidey. Sidey’s UFC/DWCS career consists of an early-stoppage knockout win on the Contender Series, then a split decision loss in the rematch of that fight. He went 0-4 on takedowns in the latter bout.
Given Armfield’s relative strengths and weaknesses that makes this one of the better possible matchups for him. The field agrees, with his moneyline shortening all week. That hits essentially all the boxes for a cheap play, at least for cash games.
The Contrarian Choice
Brendson Riberio ($7,700)
Brendson Riberio and his opponent Caio Machado ($8,500) are both 0-2 in the UFC. The Brazilians each had their last win on the Contender Series, which for Riberio was a first-round knockout against a fighter who’s gone 2-0 since and is now signed to the UFC.
For Machado, his Contender Series win was a plodding decision against a fighter who hasn’t fought in the year-plus since. That’s the first positive sign for the underdog, but it’s not the only.
All 15 of Riberio’s career wins have been finishes, and he’s an aggressive fighter who swings hard and mixes in takedowns. Machado is a fairly slow-paced (now former) heavyweight who got knocked down by Don’Tale Mayes, becoming just the second fighter to suffer such a fate in ten UFC fights for Mayes. He was also taken down thrice by Mick Parkin — bringing Parkin’s UFC takedown total to three in four bouts.
The field/betting markets seem to be optimistic about Machado’s drop to light heavyweight, but that’s where I disagree. He looked slow against lower-level heavyweights like Parkin and Mayes, and that won’t get any better against smaller, more athletic competition.
I’ll have tons of Riberio in GPPs this week, with some fringe interest in him for cash games if it fits my salary structure as well.
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The Swing Fight
Jhonata Diniz ($8,600) vs. Derrick Lewis ($7,600)
Update: This fight was cancelled late Friday night due to a “non weight-cutting medical issue” from Lewis.
I have no idea why this fight is on the card — but I’m glad it is. Fan favorite heavyweight knockout king Derrick Lewis takes the show to Canada, where he’s a +140 underdog against former kickboxer Jhonata Diniz.
This will be the 30th UFC appearance for “The Black Beast,” with just five decisions along the way. Lewis is kill-or-be-killed, with fairly poor grappling and massive power in his hands (and knees). Diniz had an extensive kickboxing background before transitioning to MMA, so don’t expect him to shoot any takedowns here.
This fight comes down to the superior technique and speed of Diniz against the power of Lewis. I’m not even going to attempt to pick a side here. The fight is -500 to end inside the distance on a card where no other fight is past -225.
That means the winner is almost assuredly in the optimal. You’ll want 100% exposure to this one to ensure you’re above the field on both fighters.
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