This weekend’s UFC 253 action takes takes us back to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi and is headlined by a middleweight title fight by champion Israel Adesanya and the No. 2-ranked Paulo Costa. In the co-main event, light heavyweights Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz will compete for the vacant title in the 205-pound division.
We have built out a full player-projection model to help us try and put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
The Easy Chalk
Kai Kara-France ($8,900)
Kara-France is a winner of a three of his four fights in the UFC, all by decision. While decision victories do not play so well in DFS, with France, he makes it a worthwhile play. Landing more than five significant strikes per minute and a 90% takedown defense, Kara-France can put up a strong score throughout his lengthy bouts.
Matched up with Brandon Royval, who is going to need to take Kara-France to the ground to compete in this fight, the Kiwi should be able to stunt and land with relative ease. The fifth most expensive fighter to roster on Saturday night, France has a ton of value as our tool projects him to have a median of nearly 70 points.
Khadis Ibragimov ($8,700)
Ibragimov had a disappointing start to his UFC tenure, losing his first three fights to strong competition, but is now set to face Danilo Marques, who is fighting for the first time since February 2018. Catching a rusty opponent should do Ibragimov some good as he can start to build back up his career.
A capable grappler, averaging more than one takedown per 15 minutes with a pair of submissions to his name, the Russian light heavyweight is also able to throw his hands, averaging more than four significant strikes per minute. This should be a great spot for a quick knockout for Ibragimov — three of his eight wins have come in the first round and is up against a fighter with such a long layoff.
Koerner sees Ibragimov as a strong value play as well, with a projected ceiling of 101 and a median of 75 points.
The Upside Plays
Jeff Hughes ($7,100)
Hughes lost his first two UFC fights along with a no contest, but enters a favorable situation taking on Spanish submission artist Juan Espino. Espino is fighting in his second UFC fight after winning his debut … in November 2018. When dealing with heavyweights, quick finishes are more likely than other weight classes and Hughes can take advantage of a rusty Espino.
In his three fights, Hughes has been able to defend takedown attempts well to the tune of 75% according to UFCStats.com and has never been finished in his defeats. While Hughes is a considerable betting underdog, and the third cheapest option on the board, Hughes can be a low-owned yet prosperous addition to a roster.
William Knight ($7,600)
Knight enters as a slight underdog against Aleksa Camur, and based on Koerner’s projections, presents incredible value. Knight is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings, yet possesses as much knockout power as Camur. While giving up a 3-inch height disadvantage to his opponent, Knight may have the more complete game between both prospects.
Knight has shown raw yet a strong ability to takedown his opponents on Dana White’s Contender Series, averaging more than three per 15 minutes. Camur is still new to the UFC scene, winning his debut by decision in January. In a fight that may be closer than the salaries are projecting, there is value in taking Knight, who has nearly an equal ceiling to Camur, according to our projections.
Stay Away
Ketlen Vieira ($8,800)
Vieira is coming off her first MMA loss back in December and is now set to take on Sijara Eubanks, who, despite fighting just two weeks ago, put together a complete performance in a decision victory.
Eubanks has the momentum on her side, and while Vieira is a dangerous fighter with four submissions to her name, she may be overvalued in a fight that could become a slow grind. Eubanks lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute, according to UFCStats.com, and was able to take down her opponent three times in her most recent bout.
While Vieira is capable on the ground and strong at defending takedown attempts, if she is not the aggressor, she can sacrifice her ability to score throughout the bout. Vieira is a worthy favorite to win this fight, but you may be better off using your money elsewhere on someone that is more reliable to control the fight.
The Swing Fight
Israel Adesanya (8,500) vs. Paolo Costa (7,700)
The main event pits two undefeated and worthy champions, but of course only one can win. Costa packs a powerful punch and is as dangerous a striker that Adesanya has seen yet, which is seen through Koerner’s projections. Both have a ceiling of over 100 points and a median above 75 points.
However, from a DFS perspective, I believe this favors the champion. Adesanya has fantastic stamina and able to keep his steady output going throughout championship rounds. Adesanya spends almost double the amount of time in the ring per fight in the UFC, which is a testament to Costa’s power but also Adesanya’s ability to stay in fights and score.
If you feel that Costa is going to knockout Israel and take home the belt, then Costa presents a ton of value being priced under $8,000. Although, this fight projects to be a long one with Adesanya’s ability to protect himself. While he has never seen this kind of power will be the more seasoned fighter and control the pace as this goes long.
Both men will score well in DFS formats due to the likelihood of a long kickboxing bout, but I lean with the champion to take this home in the championship rounds and is worthy of the investment at $8,500.
Pictured above (L-R): Paulo Costa, UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya
Photo credit: Getty Images
