Fight Island doesn’t sleep so we’re right back in the octagon tonight after Saturday’s pay-per-view card. Wednesday’s action is headlined by featherweight contenders Calvin Kattar and Dan Ige on the 11-bout Fight Night card and DFS lineups will lock at 7 p.m. ET.
We’ve have built out a full player-projection model to help us try and put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC.
The model, created by my colleague Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
Another tool that you can use to make it easier to identify which fighters to use in the big tournaments is Perfect%.
Perfect% is the percentage of the time that fighter finishes in the ‘perfect/optimal lineup’ based on my simulations. It’s worth noting that this is factoring in the “perfect lineup” that meets the DraftKings budget of $50,000 or less. Therefore this is the perfect metric to use when trying to figure out the ideal fighters to use in the MMA Million.
The Easy Chalk
Jack Shore ($9400)
Shore is the most expensive fighter on the slate, but only by $200, and no other favorite on the card is within 10% of his odds (-715) in terms of implied win probability – which currently stands at 88%. Additionally, Shore is even money (+100) to win by submission and +350 to win by KO/TKO – a combined probability of 72.2% of finishing the fight – and he is just +150 (implied 40%) to get a first-round stoppage. He ranks in the top three for every projection category for this week, and given his perfect rating Shore is probably worth including in 40-50% of your GPP lineups.
The Cash Game Play
Molly McCann ($8200)
McCann is gaining steam in the betting market against her Brazilian opponent. And she looks like a pretty safe play for DFS purposes, as a high volume-striker (6.5 landed per minute) who also generates takedowns (2.6 per 15 minutes). McCann is 10th in pricing for Wednesday, but she ranks 6th in median projection, and 4th in both ceiling and floor projections. With a 50-point floor, “Meatball” is a bargain at her price point.
The Upside Plays
Abdul Razak Alhassan ($9200)
Alhassan has to shake off some rust – returning to the octagon for the first time since 2018 – and potentially recover from a bad weight cut, where he missed by four pounds and was fined 20% of his fight purse. However, he offers the highest ceiling on the slate – with all 10 of his career wins coming by first-round knockout – and I’ll be including him in around 40% of my lineups. He is listed at +110 (implied 47.6%) to win in Round 1.
Khamzat Chimaev ($8900)
Other than Shore and Alhassan, Chimaev is the most likely first-round winner at +120 (implied 45.5%) and he is the most likely submission artist on the night at -121 (implied 54.7%). It may only take one takedown, or he could string a few together alongside some advances, but this UFC newcomer seems primed for big things – despite taking the fight on short notice.
Modestas Bukauskas ($9000) and Andreas Michalidis ($7200)
The two fights listed above this one are more likely to end in a finish, at -455 for Alhassan and -400 for Chimaev – but that is mostly due to one fighter’s superiority in those bouts.
This Light Heavyweight clash between a pair of UFC newcomers is listed at -335 (implied 77%) to finish inside of the distance, with Bukauskas by KO/TKO (-106) and Michalidis by KO/TKO (+325) as the most likely winning methods. Their combined perfect rating is just 43%, but I’m inclined to use more Michalidis with the other chalk – since the betting market is trending his direction, moving from +205 at open to +133 as of writing. As a result, Bukauskas is overpriced.
The Swing Fight
Calvin Kattar ($9100) vs. Dan Ige ($7300)
The two competitors in Wednesday’s main event have a combined perfect rating of greater than 90%, so the winner is highly likely to land in the optimal lineup. Additionally, the fight is listed at -200 (implied 66.7%) to finish inside of the distance – which would likely be the result of Kattar win by KO/TKO, which is listed at -115 (implied 53.5%) in the winning method market.
Kattar owns the highest floor (81.5), and best bargain rating on the slate – making him a must-use in cash games. Ige’s most likely path to victory is by decision, so Kattar should get five rounds worth of striking on the board even in a loss. However, at $7300, Ige has the highest perfect rating on the slate as the only fighter north of 50%. He will surely land in the optimal lineup with a win, but given his price point could also end up there after a close, five-round loss.
Pictured above: Calvin Kattar.
Photo credit: Rey Del Rio/Getty Images.
