This weekend’s UFC Fight Night action takes place at the Apex with former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar making his bantamweight debut against Pedro Munhoz on ESPN.
We have built out a full player-projection model to help us try and put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
Another tool that you can use to make it easier to identify which fighters to use in the big tournaments is Perfect%.
Perfect% is the percentage of the time that fighter finishes in the ‘perfect/optimal lineup’ based on my simulations. It’s worth noting that this is factoring in the “perfect lineup” that meets the DraftKings budget of $50,000 or less. Therefore this is the perfect metric to use when trying to figure out the ideal fighters to use in the MMA Million.
You can check out the prices and projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
Pictured above: UFC opponents Pedro Munhoz of Brazil and Frankie Edgar
Photo credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
