The UFC is in action on Saturday, with an exciting main event between former champ Jessica Andrade and up-and-coming Amanda Lemos. There are 11 other fights on the card, with action set to kick off at 6:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
UFC DFS Main Event Pick
Jessica Andrade ($8,900) vs. Amanda Lemos ($7,300)
This is the rare women fight that oddsmakers expect to end inside the distance, with -200 odds. Both fighters have solid power. Lemos has scored five knockdowns in six UFC fights, while Andrade’s last four wins have all come via (T)KO.
That sets up a situation where it’s exceedingly likely that the winner of this fight ends up in the optimal lineup. There’s a bit of a case for an Andrade win that doesn’t quite get there, but that’s pretty unlikely. She’s scored at least 100 points on DraftKings in every win since 2014.
A Lemos win definitely gets you there, given her low salary. Beyond the salary, it’s tough to see a scenario where Lemos wins this without picking up a stoppage. DraftKings has Lemos at +260 to win by a stoppage and +700 to win by a decision.
I actually like Lemos here, though. This fight is at 115 pounds, a weight class Andrade hasn’t competed at in roughly two years. It gets increasingly hard to cut weight as fighters age, and Andrade is on the wrong side of 30. Lemos also has a far better knockdown rate. I’ll be overweight on Lemos for tournaments but have a mix of both fighters.
For cash games, I don’t see a reason not to simply roster both. While an early win for either woman will mean one disappointing score, both sides have enough knockout equity that I’m not willing to gamble on one or the other. Andrade leads our projections in median and ceiling, while Amanda Lemos is near the top in Pts/Sal.
The Easy Chalk
Dean Barry ($9,500)
Ireland’s Barry is fighting Mike Jackson ($6,700) in a freak show of a fight to open the festivities on Saturday. For those unfamiliar with Jackson, he was brought in as one of the possible opponents for CM Punk way back in 2016, despite having 0 professional MMA wins and being 1-0 as an amateur. (That win being a split decision, no less.)
Jackson quickly lost to Mickey Gall but was somehow given another shot two years later, defeating Punk by decision. That bout was later overturned due to a Jackson drug test, leaving his official pro record 0-1. There hasn’t been a fighter this undeserving of a UFC shot since Art Jimmerson wore a single glove into the Octagon at UFC 1.
Barry should make quick work of Jackson, hopefully inside the first minute, so we get the quick win bonus. I’m not sure how good Barry is, but he at least holds wins over actual MMA fighters. I’ll have him in every lineup I make, regardless of contest type. I discussed this fight at length with Sean Zerillo in our latest UFC betting podcast:
Alexander Romanov ($9,600)
Even with the mismatch that is Jackson-Barry, Romanov manages to be the heaviest favorite on the card. Chase Sherman ($6,600) stepped up on short notice to fight the undefeated Romanov, probably because that’s the only way he was able to get another UFC fight.
Sherman has shown himself to be a step below UFC caliber, with three straight losses to increasingly soft competition following his return to the UFC win over Ike Villanueva. This is Sherman’s second stint in the UFC, bringing his total record to 3-8 for the promotion.
Romanov, on the other hand, looks to be a serious heavyweight contender. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, with three of those wins being stoppages. He has a solid mix of striking and grappling ability, dispatching opponents with a variety of submissions throughout his career.
It’s slightly challenging to fit both Barry and Romanov, but both deserve to be in most or all of your lineups. DFS salary can only go so high, so as a -1500 or so favorite, Romanov is the best win probability per dollar option on the slate. He should get it done in convincing fashion. His median and ceiling projections trail only Andrade on the card.
UFC DFS Upside Pick
Lando Vannata ($7,700)
“Groovy” Vannata is taking on Charles “Air” Jourdain ($8,500) in the always exciting featherweight division. Neither man seems capable of putting on a boring fight, with extremely solid activity metrics on both sides of this contest. That means a ton of points should be scored, with our models giving Vannata a slightly higher ceiling despite his underdog status.
Betting market have actually moved Vannata’s way throughout the week, though. He opened at +120 and is currently down to -105 on DraftKings. That means sharp money has been coming in on his side and that he’s too cheap for his current odds. He should have a significant grappling advantage in this one, as Jourdain’s 48% takedown defense is well below average.
I like targeting wrestlers in DFS in general since they can continue to rack up takedowns throughout the fight if their opponents escape to their feet. Where a fighter like Jourdain has a hard time paying off their salary without a stoppage victory, Vannata can get there on takedowns alone. He scored 75 points in a draw against Bobby Green, for example.
Vannata has also only ever been finished by Tony Ferguson as a professional, so he’s a safe cash game pick as well. His upside stands out for tournaments, though.
UFC DFS Value Pick
Montana De La Rosa ($7,200)
De La Rosa is what cash game dreams are made of, as she takes on Maycee Barber ($9,000) Saturday night. There’s been some mild line movement De La Rosa’s way since salaries were released, which is always a good sign. Since salaries don’t update, that alone makes her a value from a win equity standpoint.
Her style is the real appeal, though. She attempts both strikes and takedowns at some of the highest levels on the slate, both of which correlate with fantasy scoring. Barber is solid defensively in both categories, but De La Rosa should be able to find some success.
The real appeal, though is the long stoppage odds on this bout. It’s currently the least likely fight to end inside the distance on the card, which raises the floor for both fighters. That’s not something we’re looking for with our expensive options — like Barber –, but with cheaper picks like De La Rosa, it’s appealing. Even if she loses the fight, her chances of putting up a truly disappointing score are fairly low here.
De La Rosa has some GPP appeal, too, with solid finishing ability if the fight gets to the ground. I’ll be mixing her in there, but she’ll make my cash lineup for sure.
The Contrarian Approach
Cameron Else ($7,100)
Else is my favorite underdog on the card, as he takes on Qileng Aori ($9,100) of China. Aori is 0-2 in the UFC, having fought highly questionable competition in China. The UFC has been pushing Chinese fighters fairly hard as of late, with little success. Until we see Aori pick up a win in the UFC, it’s hard to trust that he’s a UFC-level fighter.
Of course, Else is winless (0-1) in the UFC as well. He suffered a TKO defeat at the hands of Kyler Phillips in his 2020 debut. However, he has a better track record of pre-UFC fights. He was 10-4, with all of his victories coming inside the distance. He seems to have solid grappling credentials, even picking up a submission win over 4-0 (at the time) Paddy Pimblett in just his third professional fight.
Chinese fighters tend to struggle with grapplers in particular, so I like the matchup for Else. At only $7,100, any win should be enough to see him to the optimal lineup. I think he picks up a few takedowns along the way, though, giving him tremendous upside.
The Swing Fight
Jordan Wright ($7,600) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault ($8,600)
Wright comes into this one as a moderate underdog, with +160 odds against him for his matchup with “Powerbar.” This fight has all the makings of a slobber knocker, with neither man showing much interest in takedowns, at least in the UFC. Wright, in particular, has landed two knockdowns to one takedown attempted in his UFC career — and didn’t secure that takedown.
Barriault is a bit more well-rounded, with two takedowns landed to his name. His best attribute is also his power, though, with nine knockouts among 13 pro wins. He’s very active on the feet, attempting 66 strikes per round — an impressive number for a larger fighter. He’s also cheap enough that a finish should see him land in the optimal lineup, even if it doesn’t come with a ton of strikes landed beforehand.
This fight is also being contested at a 190 pounds catchweight, five pounds up from both fighters’ usual weight class. A slightly easier cut should help with both fighters’ endurance, meaning we could see a bump to their usual activity levels. I slightly prefer the value on Wright here, though. Wright has four inches in reach advantage over Barriault. Barriault also was knocked out (in 18 seconds) just two months ago by Chidi Njokuani.
That’s a quick turn around, all things considered, and likely the reason this fight is a catchweight. We should also get a significant ownership discount on Wright, making him the better leverage play if he’s able to win. This seems like a fight where betting markets are a bit overconfident in who the winner is likely to be.
With two fighters both possessing solid power, it’s hard to say either one has a significant edge in a standup fight. Barriault has the grappling upside, though, so keep that in mind when building lineups. I want one of these two fighters in most, if not all, of my DFS lineups. Both fighters have ceiling projections over 90 points in our models.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Getty Images
Pictured above: Amanda Lemos, Jessica Andrade
