After a one-week layoff, the UFC returns with a 14-fight card on Saturday, headlined by top-10 heavyweights in Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik. This one kicks off at a special start time of 1 p.m. Eastern, so be sure to have your lineups ready early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Alexander Volkov ($8,600) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,800)
Heavyweight main events are always fun, as giving the big boys an extra 10 minutes to bang generally leads to somebody getting finished. While we’ll occasionally see snooze-fests as both fighters run out of steam, that shouldn’t be a concern here. Both Rozenstruik and Volkov have solid cardio by divisional standards, with each of them having a win in the championship rounds on their resumes.
This one projects to be contested almost entirely on the feet. Rozenstruik is a former kickboxer who’s yet to attempt a single takedown in his UFC career, while Volkov averages about one per 30 minutes of cage time. Volkov also looked absolutely lost on the ground in his last bout, where he was quickly submitted by Tom Aspinall.
That’s a good thing for fantasy purposes, as both fighters have a clear path to upside. Volkov has elite striking volume, which is well above the divisional average. Rozenstruik has picked up knockouts in each of his UFC victories, scoring at least 90 fantasy points in each of them.
That’s clearly enough at his salary to make the optimal, so we’re going to want exposure to both fighters in nearly all of our lineups. There are some scenarios where Volkov wins a boring victory, though, scoring only 66 points in his last win against Marcin Tybura. Still, two additional rounds likely boost that score high enough to be usable at $8,600.
I’ll be overweight on Rozenstruik. While both fighters have similar resumes (all of their losses coming to top-five heavyweights), Volkov is a 44-fight veteran who seems to have found his ceiling. Bigi Boy has only been fighting MMA since 2017 and could conceivably be getting better. That, plus the smaller cage at the UFC apex favoring finishers, has me wanting to be overweight on Rozenstruik for tournaments.
If you’re interested in betting this fight, I broke down how I would do it for The Action Network.
The Easy Chalk
Damon Jackson ($9,500)
“The Leech” is now the biggest favorite on the slate, with his line moving from -385 to -675. That makes him hard to avoid, as he’s not even the most expensive fighter on the slate. I didn’t see him as a good value when he was a -385 favorite, but the -675 odds are hard to ignore.
He’s taking on UFC newcomer Dan Argueta ($6,700) in this one. Jackson should have a clear grappling advantage here, with 15 of his 20 professional wins coming via submission. He’s landed 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career. Argueta also profiles as a grappler, with four of his six career stoppages coming via submission and an additional one via ground and pound.
The TUF 27 veteran was outwrestled by Ricky Turcois on the show, and it’s doubtful he can compete with Jackson in a grappling match.
The more significant concern for Jackson is scoring enough points to justify his salary. Submissions generally don’t produce as much scoring as knockouts, and Jackson is averaging just over 80 points in his submission victories in the UFC. The best hope for Jackson is Argueta being able to regain his feet after getting taken down, allowing Jackson to pick up more along the way.
I’m not sure how likely that scenario is, and with eight fights favored to end inside the distance, we’ll need a bigger score than usual to take down tournaments. Jackson is the safest play for cash games but is worth fading in at least some of your tournament lineups.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($9,200)
“Gladiator” might be the next big thing out of Russia. He’s undefeated since 2014, with six of his last seven wins coming by finish. There’s not much information on him, but he has a solid mix of knockouts and submissions and is likely a dominant wrestler.
He has a tremendous matchup with Andreas Michailidis ($7,000). “The Spartan” is 1-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming by knockout. Fakhretdinov is a -265 favorite in a fight that’s -200 to end inside the distance.
That -200 line is identical to the line in the Jackson fight, but Fakhretdinov has a more straightforward path to a big score than Jackson. Ground and pound finishes provide the same bonus as a submission, with the added benefit of more strikes along the way. That makes him my preferred GPP option at a slightly cheaper salary. If only rostering one for cash games, I’d pay up for Jackson, whose massive moneyline odds make him the safer pick.
The Upside Plays
Tony Gravely ($8,400)
Gravely has the highest ceiling projections in our models despite costing only $8,400 as a slight favorite. That’s based on his tremendous takedown upside. Gravely has landed 22 takedowns in his three UFC wins, producing at least 110 DraftKings points in each.
He has an ideal matchup to put up a big number this time, as he shares the cage with fellow wrestler Johnny Munoz Jr. ($7,800). Munoz averages nearly three takedowns per fight and should be a willing partner in a wrestling match.
When hunting for takedowns, we want fighters whose opponents could plausibly get back to their feet. With each takedown being worth roughly half a round of control time, we’d rather our opponents get back up and present another takedown opportunity. UFC scoring also differs from wrestling scoring for takedowns. What anyone who’s wrestled would call a “mat return” is generally scored as a separate takedown by the UFC stat provider.
All of which is to say that Gravely could push for double-digit takedowns, giving him absolutely massive upside even without a finish. He also has some finishing potential as the favorite in a fight -175 to end inside the distance. He’s a bit risky, as Munoz has a reasonable shot at stymieing his takedowns, but you can’t have both safety and upside at his price point.
Jeff Molina ($9,000)
Molina is overpriced for his -180 betting odds, but it’s for a good reason. His 8.72 strikes landed per minute is one of the biggest numbers I’ve seen, and opponent Zhalgas Zhumagulov ($7,200) has terrible striking defense. Molina racked up over 130 DraftKings points in a decision win in his UFC debut, a feat he could replicate here.
For what it’s worth, I think he deserves to be a longer favorite than the odds suggest. He’s finished eight of his 10 pro wins, including one of two in the UFC. He’s on a nine-fight winning streak since starting his professional career at 1-2, with his last loss coming when he was barely 20 years old.
Zhumagulov is 1-4 in the UFC, with his lone win being a somewhat fluky standing guillotine choke. He’s also giving up two inches in height and three in reach to Molina, which favors “El Jefe” on the feet. Zhumagulov probably needs a takedown to have a shot here, but he’s converted at just a 21% rate in the UFC.
Molina is a fantastic GPP option, and he’s also viable in cash despite his price-to-odds ratio being skewed in the wrong direction. He trails only Gravely in ceiling projection in our model.
The Value Play
JJ Aldrich ($6,600)
Aldrich is the cheapest fighter on the slate at $6,600 but has seen significant line movement in her direction. She’s down to “only” a +350 favorite at DraftKings after opening at +385. She checks that value box as well as all of the usual ones. She’s a female fighter in a fight with long odds to end inside the distance, and her high activity rate provides a lot of floor.
She’s taking on Erin Blanchfield ($9,600), a 22-year-old who could be the next big female MMA star. However, Blanchfield has won both of her UFC fights by decision, so it’s likely Aldrich at least sees the final bell.
Aldrich is no pushover either, currently riding a three-fight UFC win streak. She doesn’t do anything remarkably well but is a very solid all-around fighter. The more significant risk is that Blanchfield controls her for the duration of the fight — Blanchfield has at least 10 minutes of control time in both of her UFC bouts. However, that was against arguably lesser competition, and Aldrich has a solid 72% takedown defense.
She’s not an exciting play and offers limited upside, and I won’t have much or any of her in GPPs. That said, she is a strong option for cash games, allowing you to roster the massive favorites on the slate. If Aldrich is too risky, Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($7,900) checks similar boxes at a higher price point.
The Contrarian Approach
Lucas Almeida ($7,100)
Almeida is getting a shot in the UFC despite losing his contender series bout, a tough decision to Daniel Zelhuber. He looked great early on in that one, landing with a ton of power but unable to put Zelhuber away. He did tire fairly quickly, getting worse as the fight progressed. All 13 of his professional victories came with a finish, with eight knockouts and five submissions.
That means that if he wins, it’s likely to come early against Mike Trizano ($9,100). The TUF 27 champ has lost two of his last three, including a submission loss to Grant Dawson. There’s no real reason to doubt Trizano’s chin, as he’s never been knocked out. There’s a first time for everything, though, with Almeida having a decent chance of ending that streak.
He’s a bit of a long shot, but he’s reasonably cheap and has upside for a huge score if he pulls out the win. I’ll have some tournament exposure for sure.
The Swing Fight
Alonzo Menifield ($8,700) vs. Askar Mozharov ($7,500)
This fight has insane -900 odds to be decided without the judges’ assistance, making it an obvious choice for the swing fight pick. The story behind this one adds even more intrigue. Early in the week, Menifield was set to face 21-7 Mozharov. Mozharov has since seen his record updated to 19-12, as details emerged about erased losses, phantom wins, and a potential name change.
Accordingly, the odds have swung from Menifield being a -155 favorite to -250. Since DraftKings salaries don’t move, that makes him an obvious value here. However, that feels like a bit of an overreaction. Some of Mozharov’s added losses date back to when he was just 18 years old, and the 27-year-old Ukrainian is riding a three-fight win streak.
Whatever your thoughts were on his odds coming into this fight, they shouldn’t change much based on the information about fights many years ago. Mozharov is an extremely dangerous striker with excellent kicks. To say he’s bad on the ground would be a massive understatement, but Menifield averages less than half a takedown per fight.
Mozharov is a deserving underdog, but it’s far closer than the betting lines indicate. It’s hard to evaluate his cardio, but we know of Menifield’s struggles in that department. Mozharov should theoretically have the edge there as the longer, leaner fighter. That’s more of a guess than a strong prediction, though.
Menifield is clearly the best value per dollar on the slate as a -250 favorite priced like he’s -155. That should attract massive ownership, so I want to be overweight on Mozharov. His fraudulent past doesn’t matter once the cage door locks, and I like his striking upside in this one.
Either way, one of these fighters belongs in each of your lineups. I prefer the contrarian option but will have some Menifield exposure too.
Sean Zerillo and I discussed the backstory of this one at length in the latest episode of our UFC Betting Podcast:
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Pictured above: Damon Jackson
