We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Easy Chalk
Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500)
Shevchenko has been as dominant as any fighter in the UFC, male or female, over her UFC career. Her only losses in the last ten years have came to the much larger Amanda Nunes when Shevchenko made attempts to step up to 135 pounds. Even then, she survived the length of the fight in both bouts against Nunes.
Shevchenko is one of the great champions in UFC history, and we’re at the point in her run where finding a legitimate threat to her belt is a challenge. With all due respect to her, Lauren Murphy ($6,700) isn’t it. Murphy is 38, and holds multiple losses to fighters that Shev easily dispatched (Chookagian, McMann.) Betting markets agree with me, installing Shevchenko as a -1600 favorite.
With five rounds to work with, Valentina doesn’t even need a finish to hit value (even at her massive salary). She picked up 134 DraftKings points in her last decision win. There’s a case to be made for fading Shevchenko, as her Ceiling Projection lags her salary significantly, in tournaments. However, her 80.5 point Floor Projection is the highest I can remember ever seeing. She’s a must for cash games.
Matthew Semelsberger ($9,400)
Semelsberger has one of the most baffling UFC matchups I’ve seen in a long time. His opponent Martin Sano ($6,800) is 4-2-1 as a pro, riding a three fight winless streak, and hasn’t fought since 2017. Normally, that resume wouldn’t qualify you for a UFC contract, but there are extenuating circumstances. Sano trains with the Diaz brothers, and it sounds as if getting him on the card was a condition of Nick’s return. Gotta love the 209 loyalty.
Regardless, it’s about as easy of a matchup (on paper) for Semelsberger as possible. He’s a -550 favorite with -190 odds to win inside the distance (per DraftKings.) Our projections love him as his Median Projection trails only Volkanovski’s (more on him later.)
In the interest of full disclosure, I’m actually going to be heavier on Sano this week. I haven’t been overly impressed by Semelsberger so far in his UFC career, and it seems like Sano has to be better than his record implies to even be getting this chance.
Semelsberger is clearly the stronger play on paper, so I expect him to be the most heavily-owned fighter this week. The best way to get leverage against the chalk is to play their opponent, so I’ll be taking a few swings this week.
The Upside Play
Merab Dvalishvili ($8,900)
Dvalishvili checks in with the second best Ceiling Projection on the slate, while having only the sixth highest salary. He’s been a fantasy points machine during his current six-fight win streak, averaging nearly 120 DraftKings points per fight. He’s done that without the benefit of any stoppage bonuses thanks to his grappling, picking up seven takedowns per fight in this time frame.
His opponent Marlon Moraes ($7,300) sports a mediocre 60% takedown defense rate in the UFC, so he likely won’t stop Dvalishvili from bringing this fight to the canvas frequently. Dvalishvili racks up a lot of striking points too as his 80+ attempted strikes per round is nearly double the UFC average — it’s a lot easier to throw punches at a guy when he’s underneath you.
Now that the UFC also awards points for control time, I especially like high-volume grapplers like Dvalishvili. We needn’t rely on his opponent to get back to his feet (which gives the opportunity for another takedown) for Dvalishvili to rack up points in this one. From a strategy perspective, he also offers much-needed salary relief compared to similarly projected fighters. He’s in play in all contest types.
The Contrarian Approach
Uros Medic ($8,400)
I’m not totally sure that “The Doctor” (love it) is going to be contrarian here, but I have my suspicions. With three five-round fights and a few extremely heavy favorites, I think the chalk build this week will be stars-and-scrubs type lineups that feature three or four very expensive fighters and a couple cheapies. With Medic sitting in the middle of the salary range, he might get overlooked.
Where Medic isn’t in the middle is in Ceiling Projection. At nearly 100 points, his ceiling to cost ratio is one of the best on the slate. The answer to why is, of course, in the Vegas lines. While he’s only a -120 moneyline favorite, the single most likely outcome according to DraftKings is a Medic knockout (+150 odds.) That converts to a 40% implied chance.
Personally, I also think Medic should be a heavier favorite. He’s a perfect 7-0 in his career, all by first round stoppage. He’s facing a 10-5 Jalin Turner ($7,800) who’s been solid lately, but he looks to be a mid-range UFC competitor, not a budding star like Medic. Medic is a solid play regardless of ownership levels, but I think he could fly under the radar in this one.
The Swing Fights
Nick Diaz ($7,900) vs Robbie Lawler ($8,300)
I expanded on this fight further in our best bets column, but this is the real main event.
Diaz is the more voluminous striker, averaging 65 strikes attempted per round to Lawler’s 40, while Lawler brings more power (20 (T)KO victories as a pro.) Diaz is also famously durable, with his only stoppage loss in his career being due to a cut — he potentially has one more, Tapology lists a pre UFC fight as a loss with no method given.
This is truly anyone’s fight, there’s not a lot of precedent for a rematch 17 years in the making.
Although Diaz hasn’t won a bout in a decade, our projections favor Diaz as his 10 Pts/Sal Score is 6th on the slate.
There’s essentially no outcome here that would surprise me, so I won’t tell you how to play this one exactly. What would surprise me is if at least one of these guys weren’t in the optimal lineup at night’s end. Don’t be scared (homie) to play them both together either (especially in cash games) since there should be plenty of action to go around.
Curtis Blaydes ($9,200) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruck ($7,000)
This fight seems to be going overlooked due to the other names on the card, but this one should provide plenty of fireworks. These 260+ lbs heavyweights have combined to knockout their opponents 20 times in 26 wins.
This fight to end by (T)Ko is -165 on DraftKings, and it might just be too low. While Blaydes is a grappler, he looks to take people down and pummel them, not secure submissions. Rozenstruck does the same, just minus the takedowns.
Blaydes, with his more diverse skill set, is a deserving -335 favorite here. Using either fighter in cash games is intimidating due to the high chance somebody’s night ends early, but I’d go with Blaydes if you’re looking that way. Rozenstruck also has our lowest Floor Projection on the slate. For tournaments, both guys are solidly in play. Rozenstruck’s Ceiling Projection is only 61.7 points, but he’s topped 90 in each of his UFC wins.
Alexander Volkanovski ($8,600) vs Brian Ortega ($7,600)
We saved the (alleged) main event for last, with a meeting of TUF coaches for the featherweight title. Volkanovski, is a -180 favorite and our highest Projected fighter on the card, with a 98.2 point Median Projection. Unlike the preceding Shevchenko/Murphy fight though, Ortega is a live dog with a real chance to end Volkanovski’s title run.
Ortega’s only career loss is to former champ Max Holloway, a fighter Volkanovski struggled against in his own right. While he ultimately won both of their meetings, they both went to decision, one of them being a mildly controversial split in Volkanovski’s favor.
Ortega has been the more explosive fighter, securing all but one of his UFC fights inside the distance. The only fighter to make it to a decision against him was Chan Sung Jung, who’s nicknamed “The Korean Zombie” for a reason.
Volkanovski projects better across the board, but Ortega is a solid play too. He should have significantly less ownership, and won’t need quite as big of a score to pay off at his salary.
It’s feasible this weekend to have exposure to each of the five round fights on the card, thanks to two close matchups, which will be my plan in most of my lineups.
