Rob Font and Marlon “Chito” Vera headline the festivities Saturday night in a Bantamweight bout with major title implications. There are 11 other fights — including attempt number two at Alexander Romanov vs. Chase Sherman — with the action starting early at 4:30 p.m. eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Rob Font ($8,300 DraftKings) vs. Marlon Vera ($7,900)
MMA DFS is always more fun with close main events, and that’s the case this week. Font is a slight favorite, with his betting line in the -135 or so range throughout the week. This will be the third consecutive five-round fight for Font, with a 1-1 record (both decisions) in main events in 2021. Vera is new to the headlining spot, with this being his first main event bout in the UFC.
That’s likely a big factor in why Font is favored here. He’s the proven commodity if this fight goes long, where Vera is more of an unknown. A notoriously slow starter, I don’t see Vera having too tough of a time going for 25 minutes if need be, though.
From a DFS standpoint, both guys are cheap enough that they’ll likely end up in the optimal lineup with a win. However, Vera has more upside in my book. He’s the likelier fighter to pick up a stoppage win, as he’s finished seven of his last eight victories. He’s also never been stopped himself. That makes it fairly unlikely that Font — who’s more of a minutes winner — gets it done inside the distance.
That aspect, coupled with likely lower ownership on Vera, makes him the better overall DFS play here. While Font is likelier to win, the payoff on a Vera victory is much higher. For cash games, though, I’ll be plugging both guys in. This one is too risky to pick a winner, and the activity levels from them is high enough they could both put up good scores.
Update: Font missed weight by 2.5 lbs, and looked shaky at Friday’s weigh ins. He also didn’t even attempt to cut the remainder of the weight, which generally means a fighter is already totally drained. (You wouldn’t give up 20% of your purse if you didn’t have to.) While the overall results of fighter’s following a weight miss are inconclusive, that doesn’t factor in the context around it. I’ll be switching some of my Font GPP lineups to Vera, but sticking with both for cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Alexander Romanov ($9,600)
This bout was originally scheduled to happen last weekend before a last-minute illness forced Romanov’s opponent Chase Sherman ($6,600), off the card. DraftKings left pricing the same, and Romanov is against the slate’s heaviest favorites. Here are my thoughts from last week:
Sherman has shown himself to be a step below UFC caliber, with three straight losses to increasingly soft competition following his return to the UFC win over Ike Villanueva. This is Sherman’s second stint in the UFC, bringing his total record to 3-8 for the promotion.
Romanov, on the other hand, looks to be a serious heavyweight contender. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, with three of those wins being stoppages. He has a solid mix of striking and grappling ability, dispatching opponents with a variety of submissions throughout his career.
Last weekend’s card featured some other appealing favorites in Romanov’s price range, while this weekend doesn’t. That should mean even heavier ownership on Romanov. He was 59.2% in last week’s “35K Haymaker” contest. He’s also a stronger play (relatively) than he was last week, though, with only three other fighters featuring 100+ point ceiling projections.
Andre Fili ($9,300)
I don’t expect ownership to condense too much around any of the expensive fighters outside of Romanov, but Fili will likely be the next most popular. He’s a -260 favorite, which is second only to Romanov. Fili also has a solidly high activity rate, both attempting strikes and grappling at an above-average level.
I expect him to rack up a ton of volume against Joanderson Brito ($6,900). Brito was taken down twice (on two attempts) by Bill Algeo in his UFC debut, and I’d expect Fili to employ a similar game plan. Fili is a fairly aggressive striker on the ground (no UFC wins by submission), so he can pick up a ton of points even without a stoppage victory.
Still, it might be tough for Fili to pay off in GPPs without a finish. He profiles as a very safe cash game play, with some reasonable concerns in tournaments. He’s a lock in cash, though, with the highest floor projection outside of Romanov and Font.
The Upside Plays
Tatsuro Taira ($9,200)
Taira is an undefeated Japanese prospect, making his debut against two-time Contender Series competitor Carlos Candelario ($7,00). Taira is just behind Fili in terms of betting odds, but this one is expected to end inside the distance. It’s -150 (third-best on the slate) to end early.
That logically means markets expect a Taira win in the early going. He appears to be a pure grappler, with five wins by submission and all three of his TKO victories coming via ground and pound. Only one of those stoppage victories even made it to the second round, which is another encouraging sign. He’s one of only four fighters with a 100+ point ceiling in our models.
I have my concerns, though. Candelario is 8-1 against arguably much stiffer competition than Taira has fought. Even if Taira is able to get a submission win, it needs to be fairly early to pay off his expensive salary as well. Candelario has also never been finished, with his only loss a controversial split decision in his second Contender Series bout. He was awarded a contract despite the loss, with Dana White feeling he was the deserving winner.
I’ll mix in some Taira, of course, given the betting lines in his favor. I’m fine with fading him if only building one lineup, though. Sean Zerillo and I both like Candelario as a live dog, as we discussed in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
The Value Play
Jared Gordon ($7,500)
Gordon has the best Pts/Sal projection of any underdog (outside of the main event) on the slate. He’s taking on Grant Dawson ($8,700) in what looks to be a wrestle-heavy matchup on the main card. Gordon is a +160 underdog, but this fight is also +140 to go to a decision. That means we’re likelier than not to get a full 15 minutes out of Gordon, win or lose.
Both Gordon and Dawson are extremely persistent grapplers, with each of them attempting at least two takedowns per round throughout their UFC careers. Gordon has been far more efficient, though. He has better accuracy numbers, as evidenced by Dawson’s 1 for 13 performance against Leonardo Santos last year. Dawson is also susceptible to getting taken down, with a subpar 40% defense rate.
That means Gordon should at the very least rack up some takedown points in this one. I also think he has a striking edge, landing more shots and exhibiting better defense by the numbers. Of course, much of those strikes (from both men) have came on the ground, so take those with a grain of salt.
Either way, I like Gordon to win this one straight up, with tremendous upside and safety by way of his takedowns. That makes him a good play in both cash games and GPPs. I expect him to be one of the more popular underdogs, though, so he’s not exactly a contrarian play.
The Contrarian Approach
Tristan Connely ($7,600)
This card is heavy on underdogs that I think have a solid shot at winning, with Candelario (mentioned in the Tara writeup) and Lainesse (see below) joining Jared Gordon. Connely is also in that group, though, as he takes on Darren “The Damage” Elkins ($8,600) in main card action.
Elkins seems to have his best days behind him, dropping five of his last seven at 37 years old. Those two wins weren’t very confidence inspiring either, finishing Darrick Minner on the ground after Minner pulled guard and submitting Eduardo Garagorri to save his job.
He won’t have as easy of a time with Connely. Connely should be the clear better striker here, with Elkins finding himself in danger whenever fights stay standing over the last few years. I don’t see him being able to take Connely down either, though. Connely defended four of five takedowns from Pat Sabatini in his last fight, a very impressive feat. Sabatini’s takedown rate again, “not Tristan Connely,” sits at 75% in his UFC run.
That makes Connely a steal at $7,600, though there is some risk. He hasn’t fought in over a year due to injuries, so he could be at less than full strength here. I’ll keep my Connely exposure to tournaments for that reason.
The Swing Fight
Gabriel Green ($8,500) vs. Yohan Lainesse ($7,700)
This is an absolute barnburner of a fight, with the always entertaining Green taking on newcomer Lainesse. Green has an extremely fantasy-friendly fighting style — for both he and his opponents. He absorbs over seven significant strikes per minute while landing roughly 6.5 of his own. Defense isn’t a priority for “Gifted” being the takeaway here.
Lainesse is also an extremly aggressive striker, based on his record and Contender Series performance. While he doesn’t have the activity rate of Green, he throws every strike with bad intentions. He opened his bout with a pair of head kicks and ultimately ended it with a vicious left hook he threw from his hip.
Both fighters also have some grappling upside, with Green winning the majority of his fights by submission. Lainesse exhibited excellent submission defense in his Contender Series fight, though, fending off a constant barrage of submission attempts and mixing in solid ground strikes before letting his opponent up. It was a Lainesse takedown that go them there though, showcasing ability and willingness to grapple.
There also appeared to be some defensive deficiencies from “The White Lion,” though. He fought most of his fight with his chin in the air, and his propensity to load up heavily on his strikes leaves him vulnerable at striking range. I also have concerns about his ability to throw that hard for 15 minutes, making Green a better pick if this one goes to a decision.
Either way, I want some exposure to this fight in every lineup I make for Saturday’s action. Outside of the sacrificing of Chase Sherman, this one has the best stoppage odds on the card. I have Lainesse as the slightly better play for DFS, though. Besides the cost (and probably ownership) savings, there exist some scenarios where Green could win this fight but stay out of the optimal lineup.
That’s not the case for Lainesse.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Getty Images
Pictured above: Rob Font and Marlon Vera
