With an 11-fight slate, this week’s UFC card will be challenging for DFS. Avoiding duplicated lineups will be a challenge, as will finding upside on a card with only five fights favored to end inside the distance. One of those being the main event between former champion Jan Blachowicz and Alexander Rakic. The action kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Jan Blachowicz ($7,500) vs. Alexander Rakic ($8,700)
Rakic is a moderate favorite at -190 against the former champ Blachowicz, with that line holding steady since salaries were released. This fight marks the return to the cage for Blachowicz after dropping his light heavyweight title in an upset to Glover Texieira, and the winner of this bout could easily be on the shortlist for the next title fight.
Rakic has the striking advantage on paper, with more strikes landed and less absorbed per minute, as well as nearly double the knockdown rate. However, the level of competition for Blachowicz has been much higher, and he’s handled himself well against dangerous strikers in the past. The power discrepancy is real, though, giving Rakic the knockout upside here.
I actually favor Blachowicz if this fight hits the mat, though, and could see him employing a similar strategy as he did in his fight against Israel Adesanya. While he won’t have the same degree of size advantage as he did against Izzy, he looks to be the larger fighter. He also has landed more takedowns in his UFC career while showing solid top control.
He would likely be favored in this fight were it not for the neck surgery that’s kept him out of action. While it’s impossible to know, this could be an Aljamin Sterling type of situation. If Blachowicz, like Sterling, was injured before his last fight(s), this might be the healthiest he’s been in a while.
A Blachowicz win likely comes with less total scoring than a Rakic win, but that’s ok for both fighters, given their respective salaries. This looks like a main event I’d be fine with fading in most weeks, but with only 11 fights on the card, I won’t be doing so this time.
Blachowicz is my preferred play, though, as he’s a live dog and chronically undervalued by the field. Any win should get him into the optimal lineup (barring a Namajunas-Esparza style debacle.) Our models prefer Rakic, though, with him ranking second in Pts/Sal and median projections.
The Easy Chalk
Nick Maximov ($9,300)
Maximov is taking on Andre Petroski ($6,900) in a bout between two fighters with perhaps the easiest strength of schedules in the UFC. Maximov racked up 15 total takedowns in UFC wins over Cody Bundrage and Punahele Soriano. Petroski is 2-0 with wins over Michael Gilmore (0-3 in the UFC/TUF, all stoppages) and Yaozong Hu (also 0-3 in the UFC).
Therefore it’s tough to get a great read on either fighter, given the weakness of their competition. Maximov is the heavy favorite, though, and he’s also a near-ideal fighter for DFS purposes. His relentless takedowns — and relatively poor top control — lead to a ton of points, which I expect to continue against Petroski. Petroski should be able to escape back to his feet, but that just gives Maximov another opportunity for five points.
Our models — which primarily rely on betting markets — are a bit lower on Maximov, giving him the third-highest median projection on the slate. He’s unlikely to win by stoppage, which ordinarily caps a fighter’s upside. (Though I think he’s live for a submission win here.) However, the takedown volume gives him both a floor and a ceiling, and he’ll be in most of my lineups on Saturday.
The Upside Plays
Frank Camacho ($7,900)
Camacho is taking on UFC newcomer Manuel Torres ($8,300), a 12-2 prospect fresh off a win in the contender series. Camacho hasn’t fought in nearly two years since a TKO loss to Justin Jaynes on short notice. Jaynes followed that victory up with five losses (including one outside of the UFC), making the loss look bad for Camacho. However, the short-notice nature of the fight — and the fluky 41-second knockout — deserve mentioning.
Torres won his Contender Series bout by TKO, but that also needs some context. He appeared to either poke or rake the eye of his opponent, then finished him with strikes when referee Herb Dean missed the foul. Torres was winning the fight up until that point, but it had been fairly close.
All of which is to say Camacho is probably undervalued by the markets right now, and the line has moved slightly in his favor since salaries were released. With this fight being the second-likeliest to end inside the distance (by betting line), it’s a good chance a Camacho win comes with a big score. Camacho has the highest ceiling projection of any fighter under $8,700, and at $7,900, he’s a solid bargain. He carries some risks for cash games but is an excellent tournament choice.
Allan Nascimento ($7,400)
Nascimento is another UFC veteran facing a debuting fighter, this time England’s Jack Hadley ($8,800). I like fading fighters debuting off of their Contender Series bouts, especially when the newcomer is favored. Nascimento is a +180 underdog for the fight with the undefeated Hadley.
Hadley looked solid in his Contender Series bout, but I saw some concerning signs. He was very willing to accept takedowns and fight off of his back, for one. That worked against a lower level of grappler but could be a problem against the jiu-jitsu black belt Nascimento. It also could lead to some easy points for Nascimentoo via takedowns, even if Hadley ends up getting the better of the grappling.
I don’t think Hadley will, though, with Nascimento picking up the majority of his career wins by submission. This fight features two opponents whose best attribute is grappling. Except one of them is Brazilian, and the other is from England — historically not a hotbed of high-level grappling.
Hadley also took some big shots from his Contender Series opponent, which could be dangerous against Nascimento. Nascimento trains with lightweight champ (technically former champ) Charles Oliveira at the well-regarded Chute Boxe academy. We haven’t seen him use it much, but Nascimento is the better striker by my estimation.
This fight is less likely to end inside the distance than the Camacho fight, but Nascimento could put up a ton of points even in a decision. He’s not without risk, but I want some exposure for GPPs. Sean Zerillo and I discussed both of these fights — and many others with DFS implications — in this week’s UFC Betting Preview Podcast for The Action Network:
The Value Play
Amanda Ribas ($7,600)
Ribas is this week’s female underdog that’s liekly to see a decision, making her a solid value for cash games. She’s stepping up to flyweight for the first time in her career against Katlyn Chookagian ($8,600) in a potential title eliminator.
Of course, that step up in weight class carries a bit of risk. Ribas has been hurt a few times in her UFC career and is much smaller than Chakoogian. However, Chakoogian has never finished a UFC opponent and is the definition of a point fighter.
Ribas throws tons of volume on the feet, so with a likely 15 minutes to work, she could rack up a lot of points in a loss. She lands more — and absorbs slightly less — strikes per minute than “Blonde Fighter.” If neither woman is able to hurt the other, that could be enough to squeak out a decision victory.
The real appeal to Ribas is in her grappling, though. She’s an extremely aggressive submission artist, averaging one every 10 minutes to go with two takedowns per fight. While she’ll be the far shorter fighter, I actually think that’s an advantage for Ribas with her Judo background. Judo throws all involve getting your hips lower than your opponents, which is easier as the shorter fighter.
Ribas is far and away my favorite cash game play of the slate, given her high floor. She has some sneaky GPP appeal as well. This has the makings of a lower-scoring card overall, and at her price tag, she could find her way to the optimal without a massive score.
The Contrarian Approach
Carlos Candelario ($7,200)
Candelario’s fight with Tatsuro Taira ($9,000) is rebooked from two weeks ago. Candelario pulled out of that fight at the last minute due to an illness, but the fight is back on for Saturday. Here are some of my thoughts on the bout from the Breakdown that week:
“I have my concerns about Taira, though. Candelario is 8-1 against arguably much stiffer competition than Taira has fought. Even if Taira is able to get a submission win, it needs to be fairly early to pay off his expensive salary as well. Candelario has also never been finished, with his only loss a controversial split decision in his second Contender Series bout. He was awarded a contract despite the loss, with Dana White feeling he was the deserving winner.
I’ll mix in some Taira, of course, given the betting lines in his favor. I’m fine with fading him if only building one lineup, though. Sean Zerillo and I both like Candelario as a live dog, as we discussed in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast.”
In addition, I’m generally a proponent of fading Asian prospects when they first enter the UFC. The level of competition is highly questionable. Candelario is also undefeated outside of a controversial split decision, and I like him at the price.
The Swing Fight
Ion Cutelaba ($8,900) vs. Ryan Spann ($7,300)
“The Hulk” Cutelaba is taking on Ryan “Superman” Spann in a DC vs. Marvel co-main event. (Credit to Brendan Glasheen for the comic book observation.) This fight promises a ton of action, with -450 odds to end inside the distance on DraftKings. Cutelaba is a somewhat heavy favorite at -225.
He’s also favored by our models, with the highest median and ceiling projection on the slate. He’s finished three of his five UFC wins, all by knockout in the first round. Spann has serious power, too, though, with a knockdown rate more than three times the UFC average.
Both fighters are extremely fast starters who will be looking to put the other opponent away early. In addition to his power, Spann has a vicious guillotine choke that he’s finished two of his UFC (counting Contender Series) opponents with. Cutelaba will likely look for a takedown at some point but could fall victim to the choke along the way.
If the fight goes past the first round or so, Cutelaba should have the advantage. He’s the more active striker and could carry a round or two with ground control. However, I want exposure to both guys. They both have finishing ability, and Spann is cheap enough that any win should get the job done. I’ll have a rule in my optimizer to include one of the two in every lineup, but I do want to be above the field on Spann.
