UFC Denver features yet another makeshift main event, as flyweight contender Maycee Barber was forced to withdraw from her scheduled fight against Rose Namajunas. Instead, we get Tracy Cortez — who’s riding an 11-fight win streak, with five of those coming in the UFC.
As it stands, we’ve got 12 fights on the card, with a 7:00 p.m. ET start time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Rose Namajunas ($9,000) vs. Tracy Cortes ($7,200)
After losing a split decision in possibly the worst title fight in UFC history, Rose Namajunas jumped from the strawweight division up to flyweight in 2023. Her debut at 125 was a close loss to presumptive title challenger Manon Fiorot, followed up with a decision over Amanda Ribas, who splits time between 115 pounds and 125 pounds.
Neither of those instills much confidence that Namajunas has the size or strength to compete with the top flyweights in the world. However, this fight is five rounds in the Denver altitude, and Tracy Cortez stepped in on short notice.
That explains the fairly lopsided odds/DFS salaries here. There’s a case to be made for Cortez’s cardio being solid — she was booked to fight next weekend — but the change of venue and addition of rounds is a big ask.
Still, Cortez is the more active fighter on a per-minute basis, landing more takedowns and strikes than Namajunas. “Thug Rose” is historically the better finisher but hasn’t shown much power in her newfound weight class.
For those reasons, I’m more interested in Cortez for GPPs. She’s also a solid cash game salary saver, with this fight -250 to go to a decision. I won’t have much of Namajunas in any contest types, which also means I won’t be stacking this one for cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Gabriel Bonfim ($9,300)
Of the fighters priced at $9,000 and up, just one is in a fight with odds of -200 or better to end by a stoppage. That would be Bonfim, who’s also a -340 favorite this weekend against Ange Loosa ($6,900). Bonfim is 15-1 as a professional, with all 15 of those wins coming inside the distance.
His lone loss was a knockout in his last fight against Nicolas Dalby, in which Bonfim faded fast after winning the first round 10-8 on some scorecards. That’s a bit concerning, but Dalby has near-legendary cardio for the division, and is all around a much tougher matchup than Loosa.
With Bonfim still just 26 years old, there’s also a high probability he’s continuing to get much better between fights. While Loosa isn’t old at 30, we wouldn’t expect him to be improving as rapidly, either.
More importantly, this is stylistically an excellent matchup for Bonfim. Loosa has utilized takedowns heavily in the UFC, with eight across his two wins. Bonfim is a dangerous submission grappler, with all three of his UFC/DWCS victories coming via tapout.
Submission wins — especially without takedowns — bring limited upside with them, but Bonfim is pretty easily the safest bet for a stoppage of some kind. He’s a strong option for both cash games and GPPs.
The Upside Play
Joshua Van ($8,700)
Joshua Van is the rare fighter whose upside comes neither from particularly strong stoppage odds nor from overwhelming wrestling. Van is +400 to win the fight inside the distance while averaging right around one takedown per 15 minutes.
However, he’s also averaging a ridiculous 9.08 strikes per minute, more than double the UFC average. In his case, a longer fight against Charles Johnson ($7,500) might actually be a good thing.
I do have some concerns about Van’s performance down the stretch in this one, though. Between the altitude at Denver and the opponent — Johnson was a D1 long-distance runner — this fight could get tougher down the stretch. On the other hand, Van is just 22 years old and a flyweight, so he’ll likely be fine.
I also like his ability to pick up a finish a bit more than the market does here, as he picked up a TKO in his last fight and finished all of his non-UFC wins. He should continue to develop more power as he grows into an adult frame. Van also can throw with impunity, as Johnson rarely looks for takedowns that would disrupt Van’s timing.
The Value Play
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($7,800)
We actually have a pair of underdog-priced fighters whose moneyline odds have flipped on this card, with Jasudavicius and Andre Petroski ($7,900) both favored (or, in the case of Petroski, favored at specific books).
Petroski’s fight with Josh Fremd ($8,300) is -165 to end inside the distance, and Jasudavicius’s is -210. That makes her the better salary-saver option for cash games, while I prefer Petroski for tournaments.
Jasudavicius is taking on UFC newcomer Fatima Kline ($8,400), who was booked to fight on the contender series before taking this late-notice opportunity. Kline is a well-regarded prospect with an extensive grappling career and a 6-0 record.
However, it’s a massive step up in competition. Kline’s most experienced former opponent was a 6-3-1 fighter who has since dropped down to atomweight (115 pounds). Jasudavicius is a top-15 UFC flyweight (125 lbs.) Kline’s DWCS bout was booked at 115 pounds, and she’ll likely return to that division after this fight.
Taking a fight at high altitude on short notice is always tough, but it’s an even bigger ask against a bigger/stronger opponent. Jasudavicius should be able to keep this fight standing and eke out a win against the debutante, which would make her a steal at her salary.
The Contrarian Choice
Muslim Salikhov ($7,400)
The co-main event at UFC Denver features two fighters with a combined age of 77 years old, both coming off knockout losses. While it’s only slightly favored to end inside the distance, there’s a solid chance either Salikhov or Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,800) crashes and burns early in this one.
Despite being the older fighter, I trust the cardio of Salikhov a bit more. Ponzinibbio is the bigger, stronger fighter which wears on the gas tank, especially at altitude. Ponzinibbio also throws harder and more often, further sapping the cardio.
If the favorite can’t land a big shot early, this fight should swing toward Salikhov. “The king of kung fu” is a master of low-energy takedowns, using his Sanda background to trip and throw his opponents without exerting himself for a full shot.
He’s also the much more accurate striker, which is especially useful given the conditions. Despite the betting line moving his way, he’s still projecting for very low ownership. That makes him an excellent GPP flier, as any win should be enough for the optimal lineup at his salary.
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The Swing Fight
Abdul Razak AlHassan ($8,500) vs. Cody Brundage ($7,800)
Unlike some past trips to high-elevation locales, the UFC has mercifully only given us two fights above 170 pounds on this card. We briefly mentioned one — Andre Petroski vs. Josh Fremd — earlier. This is the other, with two lower-level middleweights opening the main card.
AlHassan is 2-3 since moving up from welterweight, but the fighters he beat have a combined UFC record of 5-10. Brundage is 4-5 in the promotion, though one of those wins was highly suspect. He was on the verge of a KO loss against Jacob Malkoun, but due to one of the (many) strikes Malkoun landed hitting the back of Brundage’s head, he was awarded a DQ victory.
AlHassan is certainly the better striker here and has plenty of early upside. All six of his UFC victories came via knockout. However, Brundage has the grappling edge. He’s a former D-2 wrestler, and Al-Hassan has surrendered 16 takedowns in his five middleweight bouts.
This one could come down to cardio, which typically favors the striker — wrestling is a lot more energy-intensive. However, Brundage lives and trains in Colorado, which could give him the edge here.
AlHassan has never won a UFC fight that lasted more than five and a half minutes, which speaks to both his upside and downside here. A first-round win easily pays off his salary, while a later win or a wrestling-heavy decision gets Brundage there.
I’m leaning towards the underdog for ownership reasons, but I want plenty of exposure to both fighters in GPPs.
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