UFC

UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Mar 29, 2024

Women’s flyweight takes center stage for the second straight week, as top contenders Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot square off with a title shot likely on the line. It’s a stacked 14-fight card starting at 7:00 p.m. ET

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Erin Blanchfield ($8,800) vs. Manon Fiorot ($7,400)

This is the second main event between women’s flyweights in a row. However, this time, the stakes are much higher. Both Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot are 6-0 in the UFC, having defeated a string of tough contenders on their way to the top. The winner here is almost certainly next in line for a title fight once Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso complete their trilogy.

The career arc of both women is eerily similar. Both have just one career loss, and both split decisions to future high-level competitors.

Stylistically, they’re very different. Blanchfield was a grappling prodigy from a young age, getting her BJJ black belt in 2020 at the age of 20. Fiorot grew up training in Karate and has professional experience in kickboxing and muay thai. This split typically makes Blanchfield a better DFS option, and she averages about 20 more DraftKings points per fight.

Of course, both women have made big strides to become well-rounded fighters. Blanchfield’s striking showed major improvements in her last bout, a unanimous decision win over Taila Santos that never hit the canvas. Fiorot is also a BJJ brown belt who averages a bit over one takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC.

Given the high output from both women, the winner here should fit comfortably in the optimal lineup. I prefer Blanchfield for the reasons we discussed and because there are plenty of cheaper fighters to open up salary. For cash games, this one is a must stack given the likely odds it goes the full 25 minutes.

The Easy Chalk

Nursulton Ruziboev ($9,200)

Our projections have the six fighters at $9,000 or above, all within 10 points of median projection of each other. You could effectively fill in any of them in this column — but my favorite is Ruziboev.

The Uzbekistan-born Ruziboev trains out of Renzo Gracie Philly, making this somewhat of a home game for him in Atlantic City. He’s a ridiculous 33-8-2 as a pro at just age 30, but he’s won eight straight fights in the first round. Ruziboev is around a -230 favorite against Sedrique Dumas ($7,000) on Saturday.

Dumas is 2-1 in the UFC but with a pair of lackluster decisions against extremely low-level competition. He was also arrested on a felony charge last month, which probably isn’t a great sign for his preparation heading into this fight. Dumas is a gifted athlete but a far less polished fighter than Ruziboev, who has solid skills in all areas of MMA.

Ruziboev has the highest odds of a first-round win on the card at +130. Additionally, a longer fight likely means a few takedowns from the favorite, so he has multiple paths to a slate-winning score.

The Upside Play

Bruno Silva ($9,300)

If not for the $100 price difference, I’d probably prefer Silva to Ruziboev, but both fighters project extremely closely. Silva is the heavier favorite at -250 but has slightly longer first-round odds at +175. Additionally, as a pure striker, he’s more reliant on a quick finish to put up points than Ruziboev, who has plenty of grappling upside.

Still, it’s an excellent spot for Silva. He’s taking on Chris Weidman ($6,900) as the former middleweight champ makes a second attempt to get back in the win column following his nasty leg break in 2020.

Weidman looked rough in his first fight back, getting outstruck 70-37 by journeyman Brad Tavares. Silva is a far more dangerous striker than Tavares — as evidenced by the fact that he knocked Tavares out in the first round last year.

Silva is slightly more risky than some of the other expensive fighters. On the off chance Weidman regains some explosiveness and is able to turn this into a grappling match. However, the likeliest outcome is a dominant performance from the Brazilian, making him a solid DFS option.

The Value Play

Victoria Dudakova ($7,700)

There are also a lot of mid-$7,000 range fighters who should have at least a solid floor, if not a shot at some upside on Saturday.

For cash games, my lean is to Dudakova. She checks all of the typical boxes: line movement in her favor, a fight that’s favored to go the distance, and solid per-minute scoring thanks to decent striking output and plenty of takedowns. She’s averaging around 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon.

She gets a step up in competition against Melissa Gatto, who’s 2-2 in the UFC with two knockout victories. However, Gatto has been taken down in three of those four fights, and her most recent win came in December of 2021. Assuming we see continued progression from the 25-year-old Dudakova, this is a very winnable fight.

She might not make the optimal lineup with a low-scoring win, but she would certainly be a boost in cash games. With a solid floor, thanks to this fight likely going 15 minutes, that makes her an excellent salary relief option.

The Contrarian Choice

Andre Petroski ($7,200)

I truly don’t understand the betting line — and thus the DFS prices — on this fight. Andre Petroski is 5-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming on less than a week’s notice to an 8-2 opponent. Yet somehow, he’s a two-to-one ‘dog against Jacob Malkoun ($9,000), who’s 3-3 in the promotion with zero wins inside the distance.

To be fair, Malkoun should be 4-2, as he was disqualified for the rarely-called strikes to the back of the head moments before he would’ve picked up a stoppage against Cody Brundage. However, that would still be a less impressive resume than Petroski’s, who’s finished three of his five UFC wins.

Petroski is also a tough stylistic matchup for Malkoun. Both fighters are primarily grapplers, but Malkoun has struggled against other grappling-based fighters. His losses have come to Phil Hawes (D1 wrestler) and Brendan Allen (BJJ black belt). Petroski wrestled D1 at UNC, and holds a brown belt in jiu-jitsu.

I made the case for why Petroski will win this one in my betting preview. That analysis holds up here, but Petroski is an even better DFS play. That’s because Malkoun is unlikely to pick up a finish here, which gives Petroski a solid floor even if he ultimately loses.

He’s not a great play on paper for cash games, but I’m taking an “I know better” stance on the Renzo Gracie Philly fighter. He’ll be my most heavily owned fighter in all contest types.

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The Swing Fight

Ibo Aslan ($8,300) vs. Anton Turkalj ($7,900)

This is an extremely interesting fight. Ibo Aslan is making his UFC debut following a first-round knockout on the Contender Series. He’s 12-1 as a pro, with all 12 wins coming via first-round knockout. He’s fighting Anton Turkalj ($7,900), who’s lost three straight in the Octagon, including a first-round knockout in his last fight.

Seems like a smash spot for Aslan right? Here’s where it gets interesting. Aslan’s one professional loss? That came against “The Pleasure Man” in a regional fight back in 2020.

Typically, the advantage goes to the prior winner in rematches unless one fighter is significantly younger. Both Aslan and Turkalj are 27. Still, it’s hard to ignore the recent results from the Pleasure Man, who’s been thoroughly outclassed each time he steps into the Octagon.

This is a pure striker-vs-grappler match, with Turkalj bringing plenty of upside via takedowns and submissions while Aslan packs massive power. I’m leaning towards Aslan — he’s had the line slide his way a bit this week — but will have a fair amount of Turkalj as a hedge. This fight is -450 to end by finish and even money to end in the first round.

Sean Zerillo and I both like Aslan in this spot, which we discussed on our latest UFC betting preview:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.