We’re down to 11 fights on the weekend’s UFC card, thanks to a cancellation and a fight being moved back a week. Still, we have a compelling main event between knockout artist Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik and grappling wizard Jailton Almeida. Contests lock at a special early start time of 11:30 AM eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Jailton Almeida ($9,600) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($6,600)
This week’s main event is expected to be the most lopsided fight on the card, with the reformed light heavyweight Almeida a -500 or so favorite. He’s even an odds-on favorite to end things in the first round at -135 — as he’s done in three of his four UFC victories.
Almeida debuted in the Octagon at 205 before making the leap up to heavyweight. A cursory glance around the division makes that seem like the right move, as there are very few heavyweights capable of matching Almeida’s grappling or athleticism. He is small for the division, though, and will likely be giving up north of 40 lbs to Rozenstruik on fight day.
Still, Rozenstruik’s best chances here are of landing a miracle punch before it hits the mat, where he’ll be outclassed by Almeida fairly thoroughly. Unlike many of the high-level BJJ practitioners we’ve seen in the Octagon, Almeida is also an excellent wrestler, so he should be able to score a takedown fairly quickly.
The likeliest outcome here is a first-round finish on the ground for Almeida, which would lead to very little fantasy scoring from the underdog. For that reason, this is the rare main event where I won’t be stacking both fighters in cash games. For just a bit more, there are fighters with considerably higher floors than Rozenstruik.
The Easy Chalk
Carlos Ulberg ($9,400)
Ulberg’s line is approaching that of Almeida’s, with late action pushing him to -425 on DraftKings as of Friday. He has a dream matchup with Ihor Potieria ($6,800), who we last saw finishing 41-year-old Shogun Rua. For his offense of sending a legend out on his shield, Potieria is being sacrificed to Ulberg.
I’m not as convinced of Ulberg’s ability as the general MMA community is, but this is an ideal matchup for him. The City Kickboxing prospect is a high-level striker who made the jump from kickboxing to MMA, much like his teammate Israel Adesanya.
Ulberg lacks the takedown defense and clinch work of the champion, though, giving opponents an obvious path toward beating him. However, that’s not a path Potieria is likely to walk. Like Ulberg, Potieria is primarily a striker — just without the skill or athleticism of Ulberg.
Ulberg is -190 to score a knockout here, making him the safest play outside of Almeida on the slate. This would be a better fight to stack for cash games than the main event, though, as the all-striking nature gives Potieria a bit higher of a floor. Still, I’d rather find the salary to roster a fighter with a better chance of a win.
The Value Play
Tainara Lisboa ($7,800)
Lisboa opened as a +120 underdog this week, but the lines have flipped. She’s now a -120 favorite, making her an obvious value at her underdog price tag.
She’s another former kickboxing champion making the jump to MMA. Her opponent is Jessica Rose-Clark ($8,400). Clark is 4-4 overall in the UFC but is 35 years old and has lost her last two fights. She’s also dealt with injuries — a broken arm and a torn ACL — in the past few years.
It’s a tough matchup for Rose-Clark, who also does her best work on the feet. While she likely has a wrestling edge, Rose-Clark has been submitted in consecutive bouts, and Lisboa has a pair of submission wins to her name. Taking things to the mat might favor Lisboa nearly as much as keeping it standing.
I like Lisboa to pick up a finish here, as she’s done in all five of her professional victory. I laid out the case for her to win — and things to end early — in the latest edition of our UFC betting podcast:
The Contrarian Choice
Daniel Rodriguez ($7,200)
“D-Rod” is fighting the extremely hyped Irish prospect Ian Garry ($9,200) on Saturday, but I think Rodriguez has a path to a victory here. Both men are strikers, with Garry relying on his height and reach advantage to stay on the outside while landing counter shots.
That might not be an option this time around, as Rodriguez matches the younger man in reach while also posing difficult looks as a southpaw. In his lone prior fight against a lefty, Garry was hurt a couple of times early before recovering for a knockout. Garry has been hurt on numerous occasions in his four UFC wins, though he’s survived each time.
Rodriguez has the power and experience to not let Garry off the hook, though, and the striking exchanges should be roughly a coin flip here. I made the case for Rodriguez as a betting option, but I like his chances in DFS as well.
The Upside Play
Matt Brown ($7,500)
With each successive fight, “The Immortal” becomes even more appropriate as a nickname for Matt Brown. The 42-year-old has the record for most knockouts in the welterweight division and has been in some of the UFC’s most memorable bouts in his long career.
He gets a fellow “fighter of a certain age” this time around in Court McGee ($8,700). McGee is a bit younger at 38 but clearly also well past his prime as a fighter. He’s also coming off a vicious knockout loss to Jeremiah Wells in his last fight — which is hard to recover from, given the years and mileage on his chin.
The power is the last thing to go, so Brown has a solid chance of putting McGee away on Saturday. Even if he doesn’t it should be a high-volume striking performance and end in a fairly strong DFS score. Brown also has most of the takedown upside here with his underrated arsenal of trips and foot sweeps. That gives him another route to a big score in DFS.
The Swing Fight
Johnny Walker ($8,200) vs. Anthony Smith ($8,000)
This bout was originally booked as the main event of UFC on ABC 4 before being slotted down to the co-main in favor of the heavyweights. This is a shame because this should be a fairly closely matched contest between two of the division’s top 10 fighters, and a pair of extra potential rounds would be a big boost for DFS.
This is a tough fight to call, with both fighters 3-2 over their last five, against similarly high-level competition. Smith has dealt with a variety of injuries since his title challenge against Jon Jones but appeared to have righted the ship until his TKO loss to Magomed Ankalaev the last time around. Prior to that, he was riding a three-fight winning streak.
Walker also had his career temporarily derailed by a champion, suffering a knockout loss to now-champ Jamahal Hill in 2022. He’s rebounded with a pair of first-round victories of his own, though, and is quickly climbing back towards another title challenge.
Smith is the more technical fighter here, but Walker’s unorthodox striking and athleticism are a tough puzzle to solve. I don’t feel great about backing either fighter here, but I want one or the other in most of my GPP lineups. At -500, the stoppage odds are the longest outside of the main event. That means the winner is very likely to end up in the optimal on an 11-fight card.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Fight Night: Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Gane vs. Tuivasa, More Saturday Fights
UFC 279 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Diaz vs. Ferguson, More Saturday Fights
UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights
UFC 284 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Volkanovski vs. Makhachev, More Saturday Fights
