Arguably the greatest featherweight of all time, Alexander Volkanovski, gets a chance to regain his title on Saturday after dropping it to Ilia Topuria last year. His bout with Diego Lopes is the main event of UFC 314, with Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett as the co-main.
The 13-fight card goes down in Miami starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, with each of the final two fights being contested over five rounds.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski ($8,200) vs. Diego Lopes ($8,000)
The UFC 314 main event is for the vacant featherweight championship after now-former champion Topuria vacated the division following his first title defense.
Topuria remains the only man to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds, with the Australian’s pre-UFC loss coming at 170 and his two other UFC losses coming to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Of course, Volkanovski was knocked out badly in each of his last two fights, so it will be interesting to see if he can right the ship here.
History is working against him, as no fighter 35 years or older has ever won a UFC title fight at 155 lbs or lighter. Lopes is just 30 years old and continues to improve on a fight-by-fight basis. Prior to joining the UFC, Lopes served as the jiu-jitsu coach for numerous UFC fighters. He’s made more waves with his striking in recent fights, though.
He finished Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yussuf on the feet and won striking heavy fights with Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. That’s scary, considering the state of Volkanovski’s chin recently. The key question here is whether that chin will be back following more than a year off.
If it is, Volkanovski’s pressure, wrestling, and conditioning should be enough to control the fight. Either way, that means the winner should post a very solid score here.
The loser might, too, with this fight favored to go over 3.5 rounds and both fighters scoring extremely well on a per-minute basis. For that reason, it’s an obvious stack in cash games and a clear “one guy or the other” GPP fight.
The Easy Chalk
Chase Hooper ($9,600)
This one is a pretty easy pick, with Hooper taking on 41-year-old Jim Miller ($6,600) as a massive favorite on the UFC 314 prelims. Not only did Hooper open as a -700 favorite, but he’s now somewhere between -900 and -1100 on the moneyline.
He’s also -175 to finish the fight, which is tied for the best odds on the slate. It’s a bit of an interesting matchup, as Hooper’s stoppages typically come via finish, while Miller has only been submitted once in the last ten years.
On the plus side, Hooper averages about two takedowns per 15 minutes, so even if he can’t find a submission, he should be able to rack up points. There’s also a strong chance that Hooper grapples his way to a dominant position and finishes Miller on the ground.
At absolute worst, he’s an extremely safe bet to pick up the win and finish with at least a solid score. At best, he brings massive upside. If you can find the salary to afford him, he’s a great play in all contest types.
The Upside Play
Marco Tulio ($9,200)
Tulio is the fighter tied with Hooper for the best finish odds on the slate at -175. At +200, he also has slightly better first-round odds, giving him a bit more total upside than Hooper.
The Brazilian picked up knockouts in both his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut, landing three knockdowns in just under nine minutes of cage time. He’s clearly a dangerous striker and has a huge edge on the feet over Tresean Gore ($7,000).
Gore is 2-2 in the UFC but was knocked out on his feet by a wrestler in his most recent loss. Since then, he’s won two fights by somewhat fluky guillotine chokes, and the word has to be out on that particular technique from Gore.
Tulio is a bit riskier than Hooper, so he’s less of a priority in cash games. However, his upside — at least relative to the price — is higher, so he’s my preferred GPP option.
The Value Plays
Dan Ige ($7,700)
Ige is one of two high-floor underdogs I’m interested in on this card. He’s taking on Sean Woodson ($8,500) in a featherweight matchup that serves as a big step up in competition for Woodson.
Ige has lost two fights in a row, but those came against Lopes and Lerone Murphy, with both losses aging well. Ige took both of those opponents to a decision (despite the Lopes fight being taken on the day of) and has never been finished in his career.
Woodson has just two stoppage victories in seven UFC wins despite fighting lower-level opponents, so the worst-case scenario here is probably a decision loss for Ige. That should see him post a reasonably solid score.
The upside is an upset or knockout win, as Ige has some of the heavier hands in the division. With the salary dynamics on the slate, that makes him extremely valuable at $7,700.
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Mitch Raposo ($7,300)
Raposo is the higher-variance cheap play I’m interested in this week. He’s 0-2 between the Contender Series and UFC but has averaged about two takedowns per 15 minutes across those fights.
That makes him a tough stylistic matchup for Su Mudaerji ($8,900), a power puncher with extremely questionable grappling. “The Tibetan Eagle” is 0-4 in the UFC in fights where he was taken down, with submission losses in three of those fights.
Raposo is a former state champion wrestler with a BJJ black belt, so he’s uniquely positioned to take advantage of his opponent’s weakness. His line has dropped from +170 earlier in the week to +140 or so now, so the market is also optimistic on him.
Given Mudaerji’s power, Raposo carries plenty of risk, but the reward is also high at his low salary.
The Contrarian Choice
Nora Cornolle ($8,700)
Normally, I look for cheaper options with my contrarian choice. However, the two value plays combined with a relatively cheap five-round fighter mean I don’t mind paying up to be contrarian with Cornolle.
I was shocked that she wasn’t a much heavier favorite against Hailey Cowan ($7,500). Cowan lost her UFC debut after sneaking into the promotion with a split-decision win on the Contender Series. Cowan is a solid athlete as a former college gymnast but isn’t particularly well-versed in any part of MMA.
Cornolle is also a solid athlete and competed as an elite-level kickboxer before transitioning to MMA. She clearly has a massive striking edge. Crucially, she has also shown solid escapes and reversals when taken down in her UFC run.
She’s likely to come in at low ownership due to the long odds of this fight ending inside the distance, which makes getting into the optimal lineup a bit tricky. However, Cornolle picking up a knockout wouldn’t shock me at all. Additionally, she could rack up enough volume to post a solid DFS score even without a finish.
Sean Zerillo and I both listed Cornolle as our best bet in our latest UFC betting preview:
The Swing Fight
Paddy Pimblett ($8,400) vs. Michael Chandler ($7,800)
Typically, I give five-round co-main events their own section, but this bout fits the “swing fight” criteria too perfectly.
Both fighters are priced reasonably, with the best inside the distance odds (-575) on the slate by a wide margin. Part of that is because the fight is five rounds, but that also makes this fight interesting for GPPs.
It’s an extremely volatile fight, with Chandler losing four of his last five appearances, but each loss came against a top-five opponent. Pimblett is 6-0 in the UFC but has yet to face a currently ranked opponent. It’s a big step down for Chandler and up for Pimblett, but both fighters are trending in the opposite direction.
Chandler is still a dangerous knockout artist, with power typically being the last attribute to fade. However, he’s lost a step or two elsewhere at 38 years old, and Pimblett has the opportunity to take advantage of that.
The Liverpool native should have a grappling edge if he can get the fight to the ground, and he’s picked up three submissions in his six UFC wins. Whether he can take down the former D1 All-American wrestler could decide this fight.
Either way, we should see a big score from the eventual winner, and their price points mean that’s likely enough for the optimal lineup. I’m staying away in cash games but will have a relatively even mix of both for GPPs.
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Pictured: Chase Hooper
Photo Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
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