It’s UFC 313 this weekend, with the UFC’s biggest star, Alex “Poatan” Pereira, taking on Magomed Ankalaev in what could be the last fight at 205 lbs for the champion. Before that, we have a 12-fight card featuring a rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, with a 6:30 p.m. ET start time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alex Pereira ($8,300) vs. Magomed Ankalaev ($7,900)
Since coming up to light heavyweight in mid-2023, Alex Pereira has run roughshod through the division. The former middleweight champion (and multi-weight kickboxing world champion) has won four title fights in the past 18 months, picking up knockout victories in each of them.
However, each of those fights came against opponents who, like him, are also primarily strikers. Magomed Ankalaev is the first real grappling challenge of Alex Pereira’s UFC career—and possibly his last fight at 205 lbs should he win.
While much has been made of Pereira’s theoretical grappling holes, “Poatan” does have 70% takedown defense in the promotion and has typically been able to work back to his feet when he is taken down. Ankalaev isn’t a pure grappler either, averaging just under a takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC.
The bigger issue for Pereira is his schedule, as he’s defending his title at an unprecedented rate. Still, that’s been an ongoing concern—and it hasn’t caught up to him yet.
Fading Pereira has been a mistake in nearly all of his UFC appearances so far, and I’m not willing to make it this time. I’ll be much heavier on the champion in GPPs and could see a case for playing him solo in cash games.
However, with the relative lack of value on the card, I also have no problem stacking this one. There’s a scenario where Ankalaev scores some takedowns before Pereira picks up a finish, which would lead to a solid score for both fighters.
Co-Main Event
Rafael Fiziev ($8,400) vs. Justin Gaethje ($7,800)
Were the UFC 313 co-main event to be five rounds as initially planned, it would be the superior stacking choice between the fights. Unfortunately, an injury to Dan Hooker forced him to be replaced with Fiziev, and due to the short-notice booking, the fight was shifted to three rounds.
This is a rematch from a 2023 matchup that produced 116 total DraftKings points, largely thanks to the high striking output from both men. Gaethje won a majority decision after taking over late but took his fair share of damage along the way.
Since then, Fiziev has had just one fight, which ended due to an injury early in the second round. Gaethje’s last appearance was the fight of the year in 2024—but it ended in a bad knockout loss for “The Highlight.”
Given the short-notice booking for Fiziev and the potential chin issues for Gaethje, this is a high-variance fight. I’m staying away from it in cash games, but for GPPs, a big score from either man wouldn’t shock me.
Fiziev could pick up a finish if Gaethje’s chin and reflexes truly have lost a step, while Gaethje has a grappling edge and should be fresher late. I’ll have one or the other in most of my GPP lineups.
For more on how I’m viewing this fight, check out my betting preview.
The Easy Chalk
Carlos Leal ($9,600)
Carlos Leal opened the week at -700 odds, a number that has only gone up throughout the week. With the other heavy favorites on the card seeing the line move against them, that makes him a pretty easy click if you have the salary available.
While Leal is officially 0-1 in the UFC, he almost certainly deserved to win his debut against Rinat Fakhretdinov. All of the media members scoring the fight gave him the nod, as did almost 90% of fans. Now Leal gets a big step down in competition from Fakhretdinov—who is 5-1 in the UFC—to Alex Morono ($6,600).
Morono has 22 fights in the UFC, with a 13-8 record. He’s also 2-4 over his last six, with both wins coming against fighters 39 years old or older. Morono isn’t particularly threatening in any area but has no glaring weaknesses either.
That means Leal should be able to control this fight with his pace and athleticism, but the path to a massive score is a bit thin. For that reason, he’s a better cash game safety play than a potential GPP winner at his salary.
The Upside Plays
Curtis Blaydes ($9,100)
On the other hand, Curtis Blaydes is all upside. “Razor” is a heavyweight wrestler, which means he has both takedown and finishing upside. He’s consistently fought top five or so competition in the UFC, going 4-2 over his last six with three finishes.
He’s getting an even bigger step down in competition than Leal, in the form of UFC debutant Rizvan Kuniev ($7,100). Kuniev has two wins on the Contender Series but is perhaps best known for his PFL win over Renan Ferreira in 2023 that was later overturned due to Kuniev testing positive for four different steroids.
Blaydes’ career losses include three fighters in the top ten of the UFC’s rankings and the lineal heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. That explains why he’s a -310 favorite over Kuniev, with even money odds for a finish.
He could easily pay off his salary without a finish as well, thanks to his massive takedown upside. At 5.69 per 15 minutes, an extended fight should also lead to a good score for Blaydes unless Kuniev pulls off the upset. Blaydes is a huge part of my GPP plans.
Update: Blaydes-Kuniev was cancelled on Saturday afternoon. I recommend Mauricio Ruffy ($9,400) as an alternative
The Value Play
Rei Tsuruya ($7,400)
It’s a tough week for value, with the majority of the fights on the card favored to end inside the distance. Of the four exceptions, just one has an underdog with a clear grappling edge, and that’s Tsuruya against Josh Van ($8,800).
Tsuruya is an Olympic-level freestyle wrestler from Japan who officially averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes. Some of those came under the “Road to the UFC” promotion—whose stats are counted by the UFC—but Tsuruya landed three takedowns on eight attempts in his UFC proper debut last summer.
The 22-year-old prospect is still fairly green in all other aspects of MMA but should be able to grapple early on against Van. The 23-year-old Van was taken down twice by a lesser wrestler in his last fight and is more known for his striking than grappling.
The line on this fight has continued to move this week, with Tsuruya opening at +160 but moving to +142 as of Friday. That makes him a couple hundred dollars cheaper than his betting odds indicate.
On top of that, his wrestling style gives him a high floor, as he should be able to at least land takedowns early in the contest. He’ll need to be able to keep it up over three rounds to survive the dangerous striking of Van and pull off an upset, but a few takedowns in a loss are enough for cash games.
The Contrarian Choice
Brunno Ferreira ($7,600)
With the line shifting slightly his way, I’m not sure how contrarian Brunno Ferreira will actually be on Saturday. With that said, outside of Tsuruya, he’s the only true underdog I have much interest in this weekend.
He’s facing Armen Petrosyan ($8,600), a fellow striker who’s coming off a knockout loss to Shara Magomedov in October, his second consecutive stoppage loss. All three of Ferreira’s UFC wins have been first-round knockouts, and he’s typically struggled when faced with a grappling threat.
While Petrosyan is the better technical striker of the pair, he offers nothing in terms of grappling to scare Ferreira. More importantly, the Brazilian certainly has the edge in power over Petrosyan, whose UFC wins have exclusively come via decision.
Given Petrosyan’s recent knockout loss, it’s probably fair to say that Ferreira is the more durable fighter as well. Add in an outside shot at some takedowns, and you have an excellent case for an upset with upside.
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The Swing Fight
Ignacio Bahamondes ($8,200) vs. Jalin Turner ($8,000)
This is an incredibly obvious “swing fight” choice, as not only is it the closest fight in terms of salary, but it’s also tied for the best odds to end inside the distance of any fight on the card.
Bahamondes and Turner are both massive lightweights, standing 6’3″ with identical 75.5″ reach. Neither is accustomed to fighting opponents who match their length, adding an element of variance to this fight.
Both have solid power, with more than half of their UFC wins coming via knockout, and solid submission games. The biggest thing to separate them is strength of schedule, as Action Network contributor John Lanfranca pointed out in his preview of this fight.
I agree with John’s read, so I’ll be more heavily invested in the slight underdog here. However, I’m not building a GPP lineup without at least one of the two this weekend, so I’ll have my fair share of Bahamondes as well.
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