Much like last week, we have a top-heavy UFC fight night with a main event that would make sense on a pay-per-view main card — with some less interesting fights behind it.
It should be a fun one for DFS, though, with an obvious value spot and some exciting high-priced options. The card locks at 10:00 a.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Ilia Topuria ($8,800) vs. Max Holloway ($7,400)
The main event of UFC 308 features the hotly-anticipated featherweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway.
Holloway hasn’t lost a fight at featherweight in more than a decade — except for a trilogy against former champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria became the first featherweight to defeat Volkanovski earlier this year, kicking off a new era at 145 lbs.
That means the “MMA Math” clearly favors Topuria, as do the betting odds. Holloway is a tough out though, and I don’t feel confident enough to take a strong side on either man at cost.
Both are excellent per-minute fantasy producers. Holloway lands over seven significant strikes per minute, while Topuria lands north of four but also mixes in takedowns and a strong knockdown rate. In a fight that’s favored to hit the championship rounds, that means the winner will almost certainly have a big score.
The loser should also provide a solid floor, making this a must-stack for cash games. For GPPs, you’ll want one or the other. I almost always prefer being overweight on the underdog, and that’s true here as well. I’ll have plenty of Topuria too though.
Co-Main Event
Khamzat Chimaev ($8,700) vs. Robert Whittaker ($7,500)
Despite not being for a title, the co-main event at UFC 308 is also scheduled for five rounds, so it’s deserving of its own section.
Frequently unreliable Khamzat Chimaev is in the building and made weight, so this one seems like it’s finally going to happen. The pair were scheduled to fight the last time the UFC was in Abu Dhabi, but Chimaev fell ill and didn’t make it.
Whittaker picked up an impressive first-round knockout over replacement opponent Ikram Aliskerov (whose only previous loss was to Chimaev), setting this up as a potential #1 contender fight at middleweight.
From a DFS perspective, this one is fairly binary. Chimaev is a terror in early rounds, with four first-round stoppages in seven UFC bouts. He’s a massive cardio liability, though, struggling down the stretch in decision wins over Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman.
Whittaker is younger and bigger than Burns and Usman (both welterweights) with plenty of five-round experience. He also has excellent takedown defense at 82%, which could force Chimaev to burn much of his gas tank early.
Still, Chimaev has the second-best odds of a first-round stoppage on the slate while averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. Both give him a high upside at a reasonable price tag.
Unlike the main event, the likeliest outcome here is a strong (price considered) score for the winner and very little from the loser. For that reason, it’s not a cash game priority, but if you’re playing it, you should probably take a side.
It is a priority for GPPs, given the ceiling potential, and I want to be way overweight the field on Whittaker. Chimaev is projecting for the highest ownership on the slate by a long shot and is fairly risky, all things considered.
The Easy Chalk
Kennedy Nzechukwu ($9,700)
I’m not sure how chalky Nzechukwu will actually be given his price tag, but he’s probably the safest bet for a big score on the slate.
Nzechukwu is tied for the best moneyline odds on the slate at -750 while competing in the fight likeliest to end inside the distance at -475. Combined, that gives him easily the best odds to pick up a finish in his fight against Chris Barnett ($6,500).
Nzechukwu is moving up to heavyweight after going 6-5 at 205 pounds for the UFC, with four wins via knockout. He has a massive speed, length, and athleticism edge over Barnett. Barnett stands just 5’9″ but missed the 265lbs heavyweight limit in his last fight, which was more than two years ago.
Nzechukwu almost certainly needs a first-round win to make the optimal lineup, but he has +150 odds to do so. Considering the difficulty in affording his salary, his odds of finding the optimal should outstrip his ownership by a decent amount.
The Upside Play
Raffael Cerqueria ($8,000)
The other fight with -475 odds to end by finish is a light heavyweight tilt between Cerqueria and Ibo Aslan ($8,200).
It’s the UFC debut for the Brazilian Cerqueria, who’s 11-0 with ten finished, eight coming in the first round. Aslan has never seen a decision in his 14-fight career, with all 13 wins coming via knockout.
That would normally make this a perfect “swing fight” candidate — and it still makes sense to roster both fighters across your lineups — but there’s been some considerable market movement here. Cerqueria opened as an underdog but is now as high as a -135 favorite.
Since he’s the cheaper fighter here, that gives him a solid combination of value and upside. Without much clear value on the slate, that’s an important consideration for building lineups. I don’t know much about his game, but I’ll be riding with the market here in a chunk of my lineups.
The Value Play
Armen Petrosyan ($7,600)
One of the few underdogs to see considerable line movement, Armen Petrosyan opened north of +200 and was +160 when salaries were first released. Now his moneyline odds are between +130 and +145 and could close even lower.
His fight with Shara Magomedov ($8,600) also has the second-best odds on the slate to hit the judges, providing a measure of floor for both fighters. Both come into the fight with kickboxing backgrounds, and it should be a mostly striking affair between two fighters averaging more than 5.5 significant strikes per minute.
Petrosyan has arrived at that number despite being taken down 15 times across six DWCS/UFC fights. Without that threat from Magomedov — who hasn’t even attempted one in his three UFC bouts — Petrosyan should be able to land even more on the feet.
He might even mix in a takedown or two of his own, which boosts his upside here. He’s one of my favorite all-around plays on the slate and an excellent cash game floor play.
The Contrarian Choice
Magomed Ankalaev ($9,400)
Given the salary structure on the slate, Ankalaev is projecting for some of the lowest ownership on the slate. That’s despite his strong -400 or so moneyline odds for his fight against Aleksander Rakic ($6,800).
The drawback is the market isn’t expecting Ankalaev to pick up a finish here. His odds are +200 to win inside the distance. I broke down why I think that’s too long in my betting preview for this fight, with that analysis carrying over to DFS.
The short version is that Rakic is coming off a knockout loss, with a major knee injury prior to that. I have serious concerns about his fragility here. Plus, Ankalaev needs to have an impressive performance to secure an (overdue) title shot, so they will be motivated to go for finishes here.
That makes him an interesting leverage play for tournaments, as outside of Nzechukwu the other expensive fighters also aren’t particularly likely to secure finishes. Lineups with both Nzechukwu and Ankalaev will be especially rare, making it one of my favorite ways to build for GPPs.
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The Swing Fight
Abus Magomedov ($8,400) vs. Brunno Ferreira ($7,800)
The other “swing fight” on the slate falls a bit short of the light heavyweight bout mentioned above in terms of stoppage odds but is still very strong at -360.
The underdog Ferreira is 12-1 as a pro, with just two of those fights even making it into the second round. He’s a hyper-aggressive Brazilian striker with three first-round knockouts in the UFC.
Abus Magomedov is also primarily a striker, with an edge in length and technical ability but far less explosive power. Magomedov also has some grappling upside here, having landed six takedowns in his last fight after securing just one in his previous three.
I prefer the underdog here, as I have questions about Magomedov’s chin. He was dropped by both Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland, with Strickland finishing the fight by knockout. That was the only knockdown or finish for Strickland in his last ten fights.
Ferreira has way more one-punch power than either Borralho or Strickland, with admittedly lesser odds of landing. Still, if he can defend takedowns — or if Magomedov tries to strike — Ferreira is extremely dangerous.
Which isn’t to say I’m fading Magomedov. His grappling upside is massive at his price tag, so I’ll want exposure to both fighters.
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