UFC

UFC 303 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prochazka, More Saturday Fights

It’s not the Conor McGregor fight we were promised, but the UFC 303 lineup still looks to be a good one. The new headliner is a light heavyweight title rematch between current champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.

The total card is 13 fights deep, with the typical 6:00 p.m. ET start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
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Main Event

Alex Pereira ($8,500) vs. Jiri Prochazka ($7,700)

The makeshift main event features a rematch between the UFC’s most reliable superstar, Alex Pereira, who also filled the same role at UFC 300. With former champion Jiri Prochazka also picking up a knockout win on that card, at least it’s fairly level footing in terms of turnaround time.

Pereira initially won the vacant heavyweight title by beating Prochazka, who was returning from a torn shoulder that forced him to abdicate the crown. However, it wasn’t as one-sided as the second-round knockout made it appear.

Prochazka actually won the first round on all three judges’ scorecards in that fight before getting stopped — arguably early — in the second. This isn’t to take anything away from Pereira, who forced Prochazka into the bad takedown attempt that began his undoing.

Grappling could be the path for Prochazka here. The former kickboxer Pereira has largely avoided grapplers so far in his UFC tenure, but has been taken down at time. Whether Prochazka chooses to go that route isn’t certain. Given that he submitted Pereira’s mentor, Glover Teixeira, it is the most straightforward route.

The other forgotten point here is that the first fight between these two was Prochazka’s first since returning from a serious injury, and he looked better in his follow-up fight.

From a DFS standpoint, both fighters have high ceilings but nearly zero floor. These are two dangerous strikers who could put each other out at any moment, so it’s hard to count on anything from either.

That means two things: One, we should probably stack both in cash games, as it’s a fairly close fight and getting it wrong would probably kill your chances at cashing. Two, you’ll want one or the other in all of your GPP lineups.

I’ll be going heavier on Prochazka, who I like as a live dog here. On top of that, he’s cheaper and likely to come in at lower ownership.

The Easy Chalk

Payton Talbott ($9,800)

At one point this week, Talbott was on track to be the biggest favorite ever in a UFC fight. That line has come back a bit, but he’s still in the neighborhood of -2000 for his fight against Yanis Ghemmouri ($6,400) on Saturday.

The problem is his salary, which is also as high as we’ve ever seen — and $500 more than the next closest fighter. He’s neither an aggressive takedown artist nor does he have elite first-round odds. That makes it hard to see a path to him paying off his massive price tag.

With that said, he’s clearly the safest pick on the slate. His high striking volume should give him a solid score with or without a finish. His salary will also keep ownership fairly reasonable, so he’s worth some GPP exposure. Obviously, he’s an elite cash game play if you can afford him.

Rei Tsuruya ($9,300)

One of the reasons it’s hard to fit Talbott is the presence of Rei Tsuruya on the slate. Tsuruya has more or less identical odds of a first-round finish as Talbott but is primarily a grappler — giving him two paths to upside at a $500 savings.

Tsuruya earned his way into the UFC through the Road to the UFC tournament, in which he landed 12 takedowns and picked up two finishes across three fights. He’s an elite grappler and has a matchup against Carlos Hernandez ($6,900) where those skills should shine.

Hernandez was most recently matched up with fellow Japanese sensation Tatsuro Taira — who knocked him out early in the second round — but has also been taken down ten times in his other four UFC/DWCS fights.

It’s a dream matchup at a fair price for Tsuruya, with the only possible negative being his ownership. That makes him a cash game must, and I’ll try to be above the field on him in GPPs as well.

The Upside Play

Ricky Simon ($8,900)

Ricky Simon’s ceiling is every bit as high as Talbott’s or Tsuruya’s this week, with similarly relentless grappling.

He’s picked up at least six takedowns in five of his 12 UFC appearances (plus 14 in his Contender Series fight), with the perfect combination of wrestling ability and elite cardio. His submission skills aren’t quite as strong as Tsuruya’s, but that could be a good thing — by allowing his opponents to get up, he gives himself chances for more takedowns.

His moneyline odds aren’t nearly as strong as the aforementioned fighters, and he’s coming in on a two-fight losing streak in which he landed just two takedowns in each fight. However, this is also a big step down in competition.

He’s fighting Vinicius Oliveira ($7,300), who’s just 1-0 in the UFC, while Simon’s losses both came against ranked opponents. Oliveira is an aggressive striker with just a 40% takedown defense, so if all goes to plan we should see vintage Simon here.

He’s not as safe of a play as Talbott or Tsuruya since Oliveira could certainly put him out, but his upside is just as good. That makes him an elite GPP option, though I’m comfortable with taking the chance in cash games as well.

The Value Play

Macy Chiasson ($7,400)

I personally don’t really understand the love for Chiasson in her fight against Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,800), but the line movement paints a compelling picture. Chiasson opened around +190, was +160 or so when salaries were released…and is now a slight favorite.

Getting a roughly 50% shot at a win bonus for just $7,400 in salary is obviously worth it for cash games. However, the combination of high ownership and moderate upside limits my interest in Chiasson for tournaments.

The other frustrating element of this fight is that Bueno Silva is typically a fast starter who’s dangerous early in fights. That means that roughly 50% of the time, Chiasson doesn’t win this one. Her floor is close to zero.

With that said, this is another spot where I’ll be aligning myself with the field in cash games, as a solid score from a 70% owned Chiasson would be tough to overcome without her. For GPPs, I’m staying away and will mix in a small amount of Bueno Silva. She’s not a great value at her price but will be one of the least rostered fighters on the card.

The Contrarian Choice

Anthony Smith ($7,800)

I continue to be a bit surprised that Anthony Smith is an underdog here and even more surprised that he’s still projecting for very low ownership.

After many cancellations and rebookings, he’s now fighting Roman Dolidze — who typically fights at middleweight — in a light heavyweight pairing. Smith has taken a ton of damage over his 50+ fight career, but should see his durability improved when fighting the smaller opponent.

Smith is also better from a skill-for-skill standpoint. Dolidze is a former high-level grappler who transitioned to MMA, but Smith is one of the division’s best in that area. Smith is also the more polished striker and should be able to pick Dolidze apart on the feet.

While this is a short-notice fight for both men, Smith has also had a bit more time to prepare for the fight in general (he was booked against Carlos Ulberg) which gives him another edge.

My biggest concern with Smith is that his clearest path to victory is a fairly boring/low-output win, but if the slate plays out with mostly favorites getting their hand raised, that might still be enough.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Diego Lopes ($8,400) vs. Brian Ortega ($7,800)

The co-main event on Saturday should be a barnburner between two exciting featherweights. The fact that they also took the fight on short notice should increase the odds of a stoppage, and the relatively tight salary structure means any stoppage should see the winner in the optimal lineup.

This is one of a few UFC 303 fights featuring an exciting up-and-comer (Lopes) making a big step up in competition against a veteran. Ortega has lost three of his last five fights, but one was due to injury (and later avenged), and all were against former champions or interim champs.

Still, he’s struggled with a variety of injuries in recent years, and his ace in the hole — his submission game — is largely counteracted by Lopes’ excellent jiu-jitsu. Lopes is the BJJ coach for a gym that includes women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, among others.

Lopes is also the more powerful and dynamic striker, so should have the edge on the feet here. I like Lopes relative to his cost, but Ortgea’s takedown upside keeps him in the conversation as well. I’m not taking a strong stance on either fighter here — I’ll be slightly overweight on Lopes — but I want as much exposure as I can get to this fight.

Sean Zerillo and I broke down why we like the under (and Lopes specifically) in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:


YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights UFC 295 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prozchaka and Aspinall vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights

It’s not the Conor McGregor fight we were promised, but the UFC 303 lineup still looks to be a good one. The new headliner is a light heavyweight title rematch between current champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.

The total card is 13 fights deep, with the typical 6:00 p.m. ET start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Alex Pereira ($8,500) vs. Jiri Prochazka ($7,700)

The makeshift main event features a rematch between the UFC’s most reliable superstar, Alex Pereira, who also filled the same role at UFC 300. With former champion Jiri Prochazka also picking up a knockout win on that card, at least it’s fairly level footing in terms of turnaround time.

Pereira initially won the vacant heavyweight title by beating Prochazka, who was returning from a torn shoulder that forced him to abdicate the crown. However, it wasn’t as one-sided as the second-round knockout made it appear.

Prochazka actually won the first round on all three judges’ scorecards in that fight before getting stopped — arguably early — in the second. This isn’t to take anything away from Pereira, who forced Prochazka into the bad takedown attempt that began his undoing.

Grappling could be the path for Prochazka here. The former kickboxer Pereira has largely avoided grapplers so far in his UFC tenure, but has been taken down at time. Whether Prochazka chooses to go that route isn’t certain. Given that he submitted Pereira’s mentor, Glover Teixeira, it is the most straightforward route.

The other forgotten point here is that the first fight between these two was Prochazka’s first since returning from a serious injury, and he looked better in his follow-up fight.

From a DFS standpoint, both fighters have high ceilings but nearly zero floor. These are two dangerous strikers who could put each other out at any moment, so it’s hard to count on anything from either.

That means two things: One, we should probably stack both in cash games, as it’s a fairly close fight and getting it wrong would probably kill your chances at cashing. Two, you’ll want one or the other in all of your GPP lineups.

I’ll be going heavier on Prochazka, who I like as a live dog here. On top of that, he’s cheaper and likely to come in at lower ownership.

The Easy Chalk

Payton Talbott ($9,800)

At one point this week, Talbott was on track to be the biggest favorite ever in a UFC fight. That line has come back a bit, but he’s still in the neighborhood of -2000 for his fight against Yanis Ghemmouri ($6,400) on Saturday.

The problem is his salary, which is also as high as we’ve ever seen — and $500 more than the next closest fighter. He’s neither an aggressive takedown artist nor does he have elite first-round odds. That makes it hard to see a path to him paying off his massive price tag.

With that said, he’s clearly the safest pick on the slate. His high striking volume should give him a solid score with or without a finish. His salary will also keep ownership fairly reasonable, so he’s worth some GPP exposure. Obviously, he’s an elite cash game play if you can afford him.

Rei Tsuruya ($9,300)

One of the reasons it’s hard to fit Talbott is the presence of Rei Tsuruya on the slate. Tsuruya has more or less identical odds of a first-round finish as Talbott but is primarily a grappler — giving him two paths to upside at a $500 savings.

Tsuruya earned his way into the UFC through the Road to the UFC tournament, in which he landed 12 takedowns and picked up two finishes across three fights. He’s an elite grappler and has a matchup against Carlos Hernandez ($6,900) where those skills should shine.

Hernandez was most recently matched up with fellow Japanese sensation Tatsuro Taira — who knocked him out early in the second round — but has also been taken down ten times in his other four UFC/DWCS fights.

It’s a dream matchup at a fair price for Tsuruya, with the only possible negative being his ownership. That makes him a cash game must, and I’ll try to be above the field on him in GPPs as well.

The Upside Play

Ricky Simon ($8,900)

Ricky Simon’s ceiling is every bit as high as Talbott’s or Tsuruya’s this week, with similarly relentless grappling.

He’s picked up at least six takedowns in five of his 12 UFC appearances (plus 14 in his Contender Series fight), with the perfect combination of wrestling ability and elite cardio. His submission skills aren’t quite as strong as Tsuruya’s, but that could be a good thing — by allowing his opponents to get up, he gives himself chances for more takedowns.

His moneyline odds aren’t nearly as strong as the aforementioned fighters, and he’s coming in on a two-fight losing streak in which he landed just two takedowns in each fight. However, this is also a big step down in competition.

He’s fighting Vinicius Oliveira ($7,300), who’s just 1-0 in the UFC, while Simon’s losses both came against ranked opponents. Oliveira is an aggressive striker with just a 40% takedown defense, so if all goes to plan we should see vintage Simon here.

He’s not as safe of a play as Talbott or Tsuruya since Oliveira could certainly put him out, but his upside is just as good. That makes him an elite GPP option, though I’m comfortable with taking the chance in cash games as well.

The Value Play

Macy Chiasson ($7,400)

I personally don’t really understand the love for Chiasson in her fight against Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,800), but the line movement paints a compelling picture. Chiasson opened around +190, was +160 or so when salaries were released…and is now a slight favorite.

Getting a roughly 50% shot at a win bonus for just $7,400 in salary is obviously worth it for cash games. However, the combination of high ownership and moderate upside limits my interest in Chiasson for tournaments.

The other frustrating element of this fight is that Bueno Silva is typically a fast starter who’s dangerous early in fights. That means that roughly 50% of the time, Chiasson doesn’t win this one. Her floor is close to zero.

With that said, this is another spot where I’ll be aligning myself with the field in cash games, as a solid score from a 70% owned Chiasson would be tough to overcome without her. For GPPs, I’m staying away and will mix in a small amount of Bueno Silva. She’s not a great value at her price but will be one of the least rostered fighters on the card.

The Contrarian Choice

Anthony Smith ($7,800)

I continue to be a bit surprised that Anthony Smith is an underdog here and even more surprised that he’s still projecting for very low ownership.

After many cancellations and rebookings, he’s now fighting Roman Dolidze — who typically fights at middleweight — in a light heavyweight pairing. Smith has taken a ton of damage over his 50+ fight career, but should see his durability improved when fighting the smaller opponent.

Smith is also better from a skill-for-skill standpoint. Dolidze is a former high-level grappler who transitioned to MMA, but Smith is one of the division’s best in that area. Smith is also the more polished striker and should be able to pick Dolidze apart on the feet.

While this is a short-notice fight for both men, Smith has also had a bit more time to prepare for the fight in general (he was booked against Carlos Ulberg) which gives him another edge.

My biggest concern with Smith is that his clearest path to victory is a fairly boring/low-output win, but if the slate plays out with mostly favorites getting their hand raised, that might still be enough.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Diego Lopes ($8,400) vs. Brian Ortega ($7,800)

The co-main event on Saturday should be a barnburner between two exciting featherweights. The fact that they also took the fight on short notice should increase the odds of a stoppage, and the relatively tight salary structure means any stoppage should see the winner in the optimal lineup.

This is one of a few UFC 303 fights featuring an exciting up-and-comer (Lopes) making a big step up in competition against a veteran. Ortega has lost three of his last five fights, but one was due to injury (and later avenged), and all were against former champions or interim champs.

Still, he’s struggled with a variety of injuries in recent years, and his ace in the hole — his submission game — is largely counteracted by Lopes’ excellent jiu-jitsu. Lopes is the BJJ coach for a gym that includes women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, among others.

Lopes is also the more powerful and dynamic striker, so should have the edge on the feet here. I like Lopes relative to his cost, but Ortgea’s takedown upside keeps him in the conversation as well. I’m not taking a strong stance on either fighter here — I’ll be slightly overweight on Lopes — but I want as much exposure as I can get to this fight.

Sean Zerillo and I broke down why we like the under (and Lopes specifically) in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:


YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights UFC 295 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prozchaka and Aspinall vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.