UFC 302 goes down on Saturday, featuring what in all likelihood is the last chance to grab undisputed gold for longtime UFC veteran Dustin Poirier. He has quite the hill to climb against Islam Makhachev, the Khabib protege who’s currently ranked #1 in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings.
The 12-fight slate locks at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Islam Makhachev ($9,500) vs. Dustin Poirier ($6,700)
Islam Makhachev is a massive favorite in the main event, as he looks to continue to follow in his mentor’s footsteps by defending his UFC lightweight title against Dustin Poirier. Poirier’s first shot at the (undisputed) title came against Khabib Nurmagomedov, while this is his third and likely last shot.
Khabib largely dominated that fight outside of a few exchanges on the feet, taking Poirier down at will leading to a third-round submission. While Makhachev has a similar fighting style, he’s not Khabib. Makhachev is more comfortable on the feet than his mentor, while he is not as good with grabbing takedowns from range.
Both of these should lead to more striking exchanges, since Makhachev typically needs to get into clinch distance to secure takedowns. That gives Dusty P a solid “puncher’s chance” here.
From a DFS standpoint, Makhachev is a lock in cash games. He has the best median projection by a solid margin, and a win means either plenty of takedowns or an early stoppage. Given Poirier’s near-zero floor, a stack isn’t strictly necessary, though it’s hard to save salary on this slate.
However, for GPPs I want to be overweight on the challenger. Poirier is projecting for extremely low ownership by title fight standards. There’s also the issue of the new UFC gloves. They have roughly 30% less padding — which benefits strikers — while also reportedly being fairly stiff, making it hard for grapplers to get and maintain grips.
Co-Main Event
Sean Strickland ($8,800) vs. Paulo Costa ($7,400)
For some reason, the co-main event at UFC 302 is also scheduled for five rounds despite the lack of a title on the line. That’s fun for DFS though, as it’s by far the better fight to stack in cash games.
Both former champion Sean Strickland and former champion Paulo Costa score extremely well on a per-minute basis, averaging around six significant strikes per minute. Costa also has little to no interest in defending significant strikes, further raising the per-minute projection for Strickland.
On the underdog side, Costa is by far the more powerful striker, while Strickland has been knocked out before. That gives the Brazilian plenty of upside in his own right.
I’ll want a piece of this fight in all of my GPP lineups, as the majority of the time we’ll get either a Costa finish or 25 minutes of striking volume and a decision win from Strickland. Stacking this fight in GPPs is also an interesting option, as Costa could pay off his salary in a loss via striking volume and perhaps an early knockdown.
The Easy Chalk
Jailton Almeida ($9,100)
There’s a trio of fighters between $9,100 and $9,300 who all have similar projections — and similar cases to be made. All things considered, my favorite of those for cash games is the cheapest of the three, heavyweight Jailton Almeida.
Almeida is averaging over 110 DraftKings points per contest thanks to a mix of finishing ability and massive takedown upside. He scored 55 points in his only UFC loss, getting nine takedowns along the way.
I previewed this fight from a betting perspective, where I took the under on Almeida takedowns. However, the thesis was that he likely finishes this one before he has a chance to get too many of them, which is still solid for DFS.
He also has the best inside-the-distance odds of the three fighters below Makhachev, making him an excellent all-around DFS play.
The Upside Play
Bassil Hafez ($9,200)
You could fairly easily switch the entries on Hafez and Almeida here, as the conclusions are roughly the same. Their ownership projections are also very similar, making it hard to decide between the pair.
Like Almeida, Hafez is a grappler who picked up three takedowns in his first round of UFC action. He hit a cardio wall after that, but it’s understandable given that he took the fight on a few days’ notice and fought a top-five welterweight.
Now he draws a huge step down in competition against Mickey Gall ($7,000). Gall’s jiu-jitsu based style means he’s likely to accept takedowns from Hafez while creating enough scrambles to present opportunities for repeated attempts form the favorite.
This is ultimately why I landed on Hafez as the higher-upside option of the pair. He’s less likely to finish the fight early but could post a slate-breaking score if this one goes all 15 minutes and he sticks to a grappling-heavy approach.
The Value Play
Joselyne Edwards ($7,500)
It’s an extremely tough slate from a salary perspective, as outside of the five-round fights, none of the underdogs are projecting very well.
We need to find the salary somewhere though, which is where Edwards comes in. As of Friday, she’s one of just two underdogs to see the line move her way (with the other being $8,000). She’s also in the fight that’s the likeliest to see the judges.
This means she has a decent shot of 15 minutes of work. Given her plus output on a per-minute basis, that gives her a solid floor against Ailin Perez ($8,700). A win would be icing on the cake, but a 40-ish point score would be more than enough for cash games.
The Contrarian Choice
Grant Dawson ($9,300)
The third of the expensive fighters is expected to be by far the least popular. Dawson’s ownership projections are much lower than the other $9,000+ fighters thanks to a combination of his salary and longer inside-the-distance odds.
There’s an edge case to him posting the highest score of the bunch, though. Like Hafez and Almeida, Dawson is a high-level takedown artist. He’s also fighting a jiu-jitsu based fighter in Joe Solecki ($6,900), who should be more or less willing to be taken down.
However, this is the lightest weight class of the three heavy favorites we’re discussing. Lighter fighters tend to have an easier time escaping back to their feet, and you can’t score another takedown without a fighter getting up.
Dawson has a seven-takedown, 123 DraftKings point performance on his record, and the matchup opens the door for that to happen again. It’s thinner than the other heavy favorites, but I still want to be over the field on “KGB.”
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The Swing Fight
Roman Kopylov ($8,200) vs. Cesar Almeida ($8,000)
Two explosive fighters meet in the closest fight on the card, as former kickboxer Cesar Almeida meets Russian Sambo champion Roman Kopylov in the featured prelim.
Almeida is an elite striker, holding a kickboxing win over UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Kopylov has 11 knockouts in his 12 pro wins, and is by far the more experienced UFC fighter.
On paper, the Russian has a big grappling edge. He trains in Dagestan, while Almeida has been taken down three times each in his UFC debut and Contender Series bout. Whether Kopylov uses it or not is the question, though, as he averages less than half a takedown per 15 minutes.
Almeida has also acquitted himself well when fights hit the canvas, remaining calm and eventually working back to his feet. He should have an edge there — unless the threat of a takedown from Kopylov tips the balance the other way.
The winner here likely comes away with an explosive finish or at worst a handful of takedowns from Kopylov. The moneyline has flipped to make Almeida the slight favorite, which in theory makes him the better play (at least when ignoring ownership).
However, both fighters have near-zero floors, so I’ll likely avoid this one for cash games. For GPPs I want a piece of it in most of my lineups, as the winner has a very strong shot of making the optimal lineup.
Sean Zerillo and I disagreed on this fight in our UFC Betting Preview — which further explains how close of a call it is:
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